The first round of lost jobs resulting from the coronavirus pandemic hit the kind of people lawmakers in Washington—in all their disconnect from actual people's actual lives—figured a $1,200 check would make a difference for: restaurant, hotel, and retail workers. The next round of layoffs could change that as far as lawmakers are concerned, because it's happening to people they're more likely to know—namely white-collar workers.
Even when the only things a job requires are a laptop, phone, and internet connection for many businesses, that job also requires clients. For salespeople, corporate lawyers, and even healthcare professionals who aren't on the front lines of treating coronavirus patients, there just isn't work to be done right now. The Wall Street Journal surveyed 57 economists, who believe that an additional 14.4 million people will lose their jobs for a record 13% unemployment rate by June. That's on top of the nearly 17 million people who have already filed unemployment claims.
That's the wider consensus, but some economists are much more pessimistic. Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist of Oxford Economics, forecasts job losses as high as 27.9 million. Among them will be "business-services workers, including lawyers, architects, consultants and advertising professionals, as well as 1.5 million nonessential health-care workers and 100,000 information workers, including those working in the media and telecommunications." That's not even counting the arts and other live entertainment fields, or people who work in state and local governments, which have to have balanced annual budgets and are losing billions in revenue.
The good news is that a large proportion—nearly half—of those now unemployed report that they are on temporary layoffs and could be brought back on as soon as we return to whatever normal will be. But that depends a lot on how long this goes on and whether companies will have the cash flow—and business—to bring them all back. That means potentially millions more uninsured people, millions more requiring food and housing assistance.
This round of need will be coming from people more likely to vote and more likely to raise hell with lawmakers, which is a silver lining in a way. It should create a larger sense of urgency in Congress to get that next massive round of stimulus out the door. It should also make the next round a great deal more generous and helpful.