I hate to write this diary. But there’s a concept that needs to be considered.
The background is this: The general election will not occur until over seven months from now. Before then, we will stay at home, we will see the Covid-19 run its course, we will see deaths, and we will likely come out the other side. And in October, we will be assessing the Trump Presidency in light of this crisis.
So if you’re Donald Trump, and you now know that the crisis outcome will be worse than you originally hoped and projected, what’s your best rhetorical strategy to look good in the end?
Answer: Lower expectations.
Predict that the number of deaths will be an INFLATED number.
And then crow to the world how great you are when you BEAT that INFLATED number.
Now think about this:
A few days ago the White House recently projected 100,000 to 240,000 US deaths.
And now we see:
Donald Trump told reporters on Tuesday that a death toll of between 100,000 and 240,000 reflected the success of his administration in mitigating the worst of the disease.
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Every time the White House releases a COVID-19 model, we will be tempted to drown ourselves in endless discussions about the error bars, the clarity around the parameters, the wide range of outcomes, and the applicability of the underlying data. And the media might be tempted to cover those discussions, as this fits their horse-race, he-said-she-said scripts.
* * *
Leading disease forecasters, whose research the White House used to conclude 100,000 to 240,000 people will die nationwide from the coronavirus, were mystified when they saw the administration’s projection this week.
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Some of President Donald Trump's top advisers have expressed doubts about the estimate, according to three White House officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. There have been fierce debates inside the White House about its accuracy.
Covid-19 is real. The fact that people will die is real.
But, I hate to be one to ask it, but it needs to be asked:
Is Trump floating intentionally high death estimates to make his Administration look good when we all look back?
In short, is the American public (again) being played by the President?