Covid19.healthdata.org has become a go-to site for understanding how the virus is spreading from state to state, what the number of cases, deaths would be when would it peak, etc.
On April 1st, I decided to track how the estimates by state and nationally would change over time, from update to update. Where and when would things get better and worse? How would each update shift how we understood the pandemic, state by state? Could we see what was working and what not? How would the quality of the data change?
Well I waited the whole weekend for an update on the data that had been scheduled for Saturday the 4th, instead came Monday morning came an April 5th Update, where all the data that was collected from the fifty states showed a drop of over 11,200 in estimated deaths between the April 1st data and the April 5th data from almost 93,000 to now 81,766.
The Fed bought stock this morning, people jumped in on the “good news,” and the market surged.
When I started logging this data in a google spreadsheet, I was most particularly interested in how the estimates would change in those ten states that refused to enact shelter in place. How did the estimated deaths change for Iowa, Tennessee, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, North Dakota, Georgia, Alabama, and Wyoming. How has their going against the experts worked for them?
Fear not, people, because those ten Republican-governed states accounted for THE ENTIRE NATIONAL DROP. 11,188 fewer deaths from one week to the next:
Alabama,
The state that was roundly mocked for Governor Kay Ivey’s dismissal of the issue, claiming that they were not Louisiana or California: Down from 5,166 deaths to 923. That’s an over an 82% drop.
Tennessee
April 1st had The Volunteer State projected to log 3422 fatalities by August 4th. The update on April 5th has them at 587. Again, another remarkable 82%+ drop. Governor Bill Lee must be breathing a big sigh of relief.
Iowa
The state went from 1,488 to 1068, which is appropriately enough a 420 person drop. It’s a more modest 28% drop. If it bears out, that would be wonderful of course.
Oklahoma
The number of cases dropped 609 cases, from 1419 to 813! Kevin Stitt, I know that soon enough you will be out again at a family friendly bar / restaurant because despite flaunting expert scientific opinion, the estimated number of fatalities after August 4th, when the first wave of this pandemic passes is down, a very healthy 57% in the 4 days.
Florida
Governor Ron DeSantis’ state, and POTUS new legal residence, is still horrible at 6770 projected fatalities, but its down 127 from the 1st, so its not getting worse, right??
Georgia
Now Georgia is the ONLY state among these ten Republican states that refused to implement shelter in place that showed a projected increase in fatalities from the 1st to the 5th, going from 3232 to 3413 an increase of 181. Perhaps it was Governor Brian Kemp’s road to Damascus moment when he stood stunned at the discovery that asymptomatic people could infect others. “A game changer” he called it. He did though later decide to keep certain beaches open. Has he learned something more about the efficacy of sea breezes when in comes to contracting novel coronavirus?
Mississippi
Governor Tate Reeves must be taking the right approach as well, as their estimates went from 918 to 237 in four days, an astonishing 74% drop. What are they discovering on the ground there that caused the marked downgrade of the threat?
Wyoming
The state had its estimate lowered by a mere 21 people, from 140 to 119. The elk will have more cases among them certainly. Governor Mark Gordon may be able to tell us if this is at all related to his policy of having out of state visitors self-quarantine. Clearly, something is going on.
Texas
Not surprisingly, Texas led the way among the 10 Republican controlled states that together accounted for the entire 11,200 person drop in the number of predicted fatalities nationally, with an unbelievable drop of 4367 cases, from 6392 all the way to 2025. That’s down 78%!! Governor Greg Abbott must deserve some credit here for sticking to his guns. And his Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick needn’t have to continue to call upon seniors to make the ultimate sacrifice for the economy. The problem appears well on its way to dissipating, at least among those states that stayed lax.
South Carolina
“Too small for a state, too large for an asylum” they say. But Governor Henry McMaster can point at the dramatic 59% drop in projected fatalities from 1095 to 442 and say to the other 40 states that did mandate “shelter at home” and who together did not change their estimates and say “Well who’s crazy now?”
North Dakota
Well I stand corrected. This Republican — governed state did indeed see a substantial uptick, from 169 projected cases to 677. The jump it appears is in part due to the fact that the disease is running rampant in Indian reservations, which generally don’t have ventilators. Outside of the reservations, I would expect Governor Doug Burgum has the rest of the state in control.
Arkansas
They also received some very good news. Their estimate went from 619 to 219, a 52% drop. Governor Asa Hutchison too seems to have provided the leadership required for this crisis, unlike it seems the governors of the other 40 states, who implemented shelter at home, and who saw their numbers stay flat in the aggregate.
Utah
Finally, Utahans found that they could have their freedom to move and their health too. Their projected fatal cases dropped 169 from 580 to 394. Governor Gary Herbert can now tell his people he did the right thing.
So some very preliminary data is in, but already it looks like the laisse-faire approach to limiting movement, combined with whatever policies and practices these ten governors have put into place, are working.
Could we have overreacted? Are they just better prepared or organized? Time will tell, but how telling is it that the whole drop was from these ten states that took the President’s lead?
Numbers don’t lie. People do though, pathologically.
I think the people that live in each of these states deserve to hear from their governors why the estimates changed so dramatically in such a short time. I’d want to know if I lived in any of these states.
/S