If we go by recent polling rather than conventional wisdom, Democrats now have a LEAD in the Senate race of 49 to 47 with 4 tossups. If we only take Safe and Likely seats (I define Leaners as leads <½ the Margin of Error), Dems lead 47 to 45.
FiveThirtyEight finally reports Senate polling for 2020, and they include polls which RCP declines to report. The editorials selected by RCP now so heavily support Trump that their credibility in poll summarization is in question.
PLEASANT SURPRISES FOR DEMOCRATS
KS: The Republican stalwart state that was badly damaged by the arch-conservative Gov. Brownback's draconian cuts to income taxes and government services, elected a Democrat, Laura Kelly, over Kris Kobach as governor in 2018. They may follow up with a Democratic Senator over Kobach, albeit one who was a Republican until 2018, Dr. Barbara Bollier. She leads in April by about 1/2 the MOE. LEANS D
MT: Former Gov. Bullock shocked the race from -20% to dead even by joining the race for Senator. TOSSUP
KY: Yes, we can beat Moscow Mitch! He leads Lt. Col. McGrath but only by less than 1/2 MOE, 1 to 3%. This analyst would much prefer to see a progressive Marine, Lt. Col. Mike Broihier, in the seat, but anybody but McConnell. TOSSUP
SC: Likewise Leningrad Lindsey is not unbeatable even in brick red South Carolina. Some polls show Graham leading Jaime Harrison by double-digits, some by 2 or 4 points. The only one since March 1 shows 4%, about 1 MOE for Graham. LEANS R
AZ: It's not even a surprise anymore that the state of Barry Goldwater and John McCain is leaning D. Astronaut Kelly has been consistently leading appointed Sen. McSally. LIKELY D
NH: "Handicappers" call this only leans D, but actual polls show Sen. Jeanne Shaheen leading actual R challengers by 20 pts. and old names who aren't running by about 4. SAFE D
NOT THERE YET
CO: Shows no polling since October, when former Gov. Hickenlooper led Sen. Gardner by 11 pts. There's no polling of CO House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, the climate change fighter who beat Hickenlooper in the non-binding state convention. Why is there no polling in this most likely battleground?? I’m very hopeful on this one, but can only call it a TOSSUP
NC: Three April polls show State Sen. Cal Cunningham at -4, +7, +2 against Sen. Tillis, that averages +1.66%, less than 1/2 MOE. TOSSUP
ME: ME House Speaker Sara Gideon seems to be pulling away from Sen. Collins. Sep -17%, Feb +1%, Mar +4%, but no polls show in April and it's just too soon and too close to get complacent. LEANS D
MN: This should be a safe D hold by Sen. Tina Smith of Franken's former seat, but there's been no polling since last year. LIKELY D
MA: This should be another safe D hold, but they have an R governor and the last poll, in Aug '19, showed Sen. Markey trailing R Gov. Baker by 1 and the new Kennedy leading by 8. However, Gov. Baker is not even running now. LIKELY D
AL: Things are not looking good for our hero, Sen. Doug Jones, but maybe Trump will find a way to screw it up for former Sen. Jeff Sessions or Auburn head coach Tommy Tuberville, whom Jones trailed in a Feb poll by 13 and 8 points, respectively. LIKELY R