On Wednesday, Democrat Christy Smith conceded the previous day’s special election to Republican Mike Garcia. Garcia held a 56-44 lead in the contest to succeed former Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, and while there are more ballots to count in this mostly mail-in election, it’s very unlikely that Smith could overcome a gap that wide.
Garcia’s victory gives Republicans a pickup in an ancestrally red district that they lost to Hill in the 2018 wave, and it’s also the first time the California GOP has flipped a U.S. House seat since 1998. (Though as David Jarman points out, Republican David Valadao “de facto flipped” the 21st District in 2012 because most of that newly drawn seat was made up of turf represented by Democratic Rep. Jim Costa, who ran for re-election elsewhere.)
Garcia and Smith will face off again in November for a regular two-year term, and the electorate could look very different then. While Democrats enjoy a 38-32 party registration in this northern Los Angeles County seat, Political Data Inc. reports that 46% of the ballots received through Tuesday were from Republicans compared to just 32% from Democrats. (These totals may shift some as more ballots come in.) However, there’s good reason to think Democratic turnout will be considerably higher in the fall with the presidency on the line.
Garcia is also unlikely to benefit from sharing a ballot with Donald Trump here. This seat swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-44 Clinton, and while Garcia will enjoy the advantages of incumbency, he may have a difficult time finding voters willing to split their tickets.
Still, while Smith has a chance to avenge her defeat then, she’s in for a tough fight. While this district turned away from the GOP in 2016 and 2018, this is still an area where Republicans do well downballot. Garcia, unlike so many House GOP candidates, also proved to be a strong fundraiser during this contest, and he’ll have plenty of money to defend himself now that he’s the incumbent.
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