While Donald Trump is insisting that a vaccine could be around in time for the kids to go back to school this fall, a leaked Defense Department memo contains much less sunny predictions. Like many health officials, the memo warns that the 92,000 Americans who have died so far in the coronavirus pandemic could be just the first wave, with an even stronger second wave coming in the fall.
And when it comes to a vaccine, the memo warns that rather than looking for an answer this autumn, Americans might be waiting until summer—of 2021.
The memo, reported by noted military site Task & Purpose, is focused not on when the COVID-19 pandemic will end, but on how the military can continue to serve in the face of potentially worsening conditions. A portion of the memo states that, “All indications suggest we will be operating in a globally-persistent COVID-19 environment in the months ahead.” That’s a reality that the Pentagon appears to be facing, even as Trump denies it.
The author of the memo is assistant secretary of defense Kenneth Rapuano. While it has not been released to the public, it has apparently been circulated widely in military circles.
The purpose of the memo doesn’t appear to be to dispute Trump’s statements, or to make any kind of prediction about the course of the pandemic. Instead, it’s just what might be expected, and even hoped for, from the Defense Department: an attempt to take a realistic look at how the pandemic affects the military’s operations.
The letter is intended as guidance to military commanders in the field and to military planners in Washington. It replaces an earlier version from April that described procedures that should be employed in situations as diverse as ships on active service, and troops being trained in barracks.
That earlier letter raised the level of action within the military to “HPCON D”—the highest level of health threat alert—based on widespread community transmission and ongoing transmission “across a majority of regions.” That memo called for the canceling of military exercises, limiting access to military bases, restrictions on the movement of military personnel, and maximizing remote operations.
The date that the memo states for a potential vaccine in the summer of 2021 places the military in line with the original statement from experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, who in early January 2020 called for a period of at least 12 to 18 months for the development of a vaccine.
Task & Purpose has swiftly become one of the most read and most respected military websites, with a close attention on issues affecting both active military and veterans. In 2018, the then-editor of the site resigned after the publisher bowed to conservative pressure over headlines that called Trump out on errors, but the site has continued to publish articles that point out Trump’s mistakes and misuse of military issues. That includes an article on Monday debunking claims that a defense analyst had demonstrated that COVID-19 originated in a Chinese lab.