projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
This week pollsters have fed us a fair size helping of state polls. Most of which should give Republicans heartburn.
The only good poll for Trump is a Hodas and Associates poll showing Trump four points ahead in Pennsylvania, but you can explain that by the breakdown, 43.2% Republican to 36.7% Democratic, in that particular survey. Six other polls taken by other organizations in the last month have all found Biden ahead by five to eight points in the Keystone state.
Likewise, Website 538’s average of Trump’s approval rate is at -10.1%, (53.1% to 43%) the lowest since January. The average national poll has Biden ahead by about seven points, five points better than Hillary Clinton managed in 2016.
In case you are thinking that only the swing states matter, that may be true for the presidential races, but what about the congressional, gubernatorial, and legislative races?
Presidential State Polls Compared to 2016 Election
State |
Pollster |
Biden |
Trump |
Trump Margin |
Trump 2016 |
Arizona |
OH Pred. Insights
Redfield/Wilton
|
50
45
|
43
41
|
-7%
-4%
|
+3.5 |
California |
Survey USA |
58 |
30 |
-28% |
-30.1 |
Colorado |
Global Strategy |
53 |
40 |
-13% |
-4.9% |
Florida |
Pt. Blank Pol.
Redfield/Wilton
|
52
45
|
48
43
|
-4%
-2%
|
+1.3 |
Georgia |
Civiqs |
48 |
47 |
-1% |
+5.2 |
Kentucky |
PPP |
39 |
55 |
+16% |
+29.8 |
Michigan |
Change Res.
PPP
Hodas & Assoc.
Redfield/Wilton
|
49
51
50
47
|
46
45
42
39
|
-3%
-6%
-8%
-8%
|
+0.23% |
North Carolina |
Redfield/Wilton
Neigh. Res.
|
45
42
|
43
42
|
-2%
0%
|
+3.7% |
Pennsylvania |
Hodas & Assoc.
Redfield/Wilton
Data for Prog.
|
46
48
48
|
50
39
41
|
+4%
-9%
-7%
|
+0.72% |
Tennessee |
E. TN S. U. |
36 |
53 |
+17% |
+26% |
Washington |
Survey USA |
57 |
31 |
-26% |
-16.2% |
Wisconsin |
Hodas & Assoc.
Redfield/Wilton
|
51
48
|
42
38
|
-9%
-10%
|
+0.77% |
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…
Now for some US Senate polls. Enjoy.
Recent US Senate Polls
state |
pollster |
Dem |
Rep |
Margin |
Arizona |
OH Pred. Insights |
Kelly 51 |
McSally 38 |
D +13% |
Iowa |
RABA |
Mauro 42 |
Ernst 42 |
0 |
Michigan |
Change Res.
Hodas & Assoc.
|
Peters 48
48
|
James 43
36
|
D +5%
D +12%
|
North Carolina |
E. Carolina U.
Neigh. Res.
|
Cunningham 40
35
|
Tillis 41
33
|
R +1%
D +2%
|
Thursday, May 21, 2020 · 11:19:58 PM +00:00 · mastergardener2k
Fox News Poll: Biden more trusted on coronavirus, Trump on economy
www.foxnews.com/…
Biden leads Trump 48% to 40% nationally in a just released Fox News Poll, and 63% want US citizens to Vote by Mail, including 42% of Republicans.
The latest Fox News Poll finds voters trust Biden to do a better job than Trump on health care by 17 points, coronavirus by 9, and relations with China by 6. Trump is trusted more on the economy by a slim 3-point margin.
Trump is losing his edge on the economy compared to previous polls.