Look I know we are all still shell shocked by the 2016 election. These entries are my opinion based on all the projections and polls available. I am not trying to spread Complacency and I think we still need to work like hell to make these numbers stick. I for one am going to be petitioning my friends later today.
Each election cycle I put together a weekly electoral college poll based on the numerous state wide polls and the various site consensus. I make these projections out of fun and also I suppose out of interest. Its a great way to handicap the race and I’ve usually had a pretty good idea about who will win the general election. The Clinton lose of WI is still pretty shocking to me.
So I figured since I was already making them, I’d share them. I wanna see what you guys think, what your predictions are, and what I maybe missing.
When making my maps I look at potential Dem pickups vs. 2016 which is currently : AZ FL MI PA WI. But all of this is of course subject to change. I look at what states the respective campaigns are buying media in, the Trump campaign dumping millions into the Florida Panhandle, Michigan subs, and Iowa is very telling. I also look at thee overall party strength, and campaign footprint of each state. Finally I look at historical norms and try really hard to remove my own preference from the projections. This results in my projections usually being more conservative then most.
My only golden rule is no even states, a lot of sites try to play it safe and leave about ten battleground states of the map. I don’t! I give them to the candidate that is currently winning based on the data.
So here are a few projections made by some different sites. As you can see some are inflating Trump’s strength as they are very gun shy after 2016. Others are maintaining the concept of a Blue Wall.
Now the good news, there is a lot of it.
Joe Biden, the presumptive nominee in the Democratic primary, has an average polling margin of 4.4% over incumbent President Donald Trump, the presumed Republican nominee, compared to an average polling margin of 4.0% of the Democratic nominee over the Republican nominee in the 2016 election. Thats important! The margin right from the beginning is better then 4 years ago. Right away our candidate’s personal ratings are widely higher than Clinton’s and more importantly Trumps.
In terms of states, I am breaking my golden rule this one time, I am just not comfortable to give either Georgia or Wisc. to either candidate. Both favor Biden, yet its only by about 2 points.
But, happily there is clearly going to be some exciting 2016 flips if the trends continue (the trends are actually increasing daily at 2008 levels) Florida in particular. Trump is losing strength daily in the sunshine state and is spending millions on ads. The result is a solid lead for Biden of about 5 to 6 points. So I am now putting it in the likely Democrat column. At this time the miracle of 2016 is not sticking. All the evidence points to a Blue Wall that still remains, it just hated Clinton.
Iowa and Ohio, the latter he is holding on by his finger nails are still not ready to leave trump and I think they both may give him very very thin victories. At this time the miracle of 2016 is not sticking. All the evidence points to a Blue Wall that still remains, it just hated Clinton.
The second District of Maine is going to be won by Trump, at this moment. But, his polling is dropping there as well. If these numbers continue the entire region of New England including that rebellious populist district will stay true. I am going to make a prediction right now, that the Democrats will make Utah a battleground state before Georgia. Like NM and VA before it, AZ is now the most likely state to turn to the Dems.
Penn is almost always regarded as a swing state, ever since 2016 the press has been worried about moving it solidly in the Dem column. I’m putting it as safely Democratic for a number of reasons, chiefly it was only won by a point (more or less) in 2016. One victory by a republican in one election compared to several won by Democrats doesn’t translate to a Red State turnover. It points to Republican gains due to a Democratic Candidate who didn’t click there. In fact all the states Trump turned in 2016 with the exception of Iowa is still Democratic states. However the message is clear and the lesson should be learned. If you nominated an candidate that doesn’t click with them and you don’t campaign there you are putting them within the Republican’s grasp.
New Hampshire is not a swing state, and Biden has not closed the deal on North Carolina has been polling hard for Biden, not enough to turn it Blue. But, I think this is subject to change and it still remains a friendly republican area. So much so that in my more conservative map I give it to the Republicans.
As much as I would love to see the Democrats win my home state of Florida, I know too much about the state to believe to predict a Democratic victory there at this time. I am putting it in the solid Dems column because the Biden Numbers just keep coming up roses. Seniors are leaving Trump and so are Suburban Women. If these trends continue I would agree with the notion of a slim, paper thin win for Biden similar to Obama in 2012. However it all depends on turnout and the democrats in the state still haven’t gotten there act together. Add on the Republican strength in the state, their efforts to not enforce the rights of former felonies to vote, and the fact that many service members use Florida as a home due to tax credits, yet never live there and vote firmly republican. All of that makes it a possible to likely reach for the Blue Team.
Anyway bottom line in my Optimistic map its Biden 350 to Trump 188. In my most conservative map which I put in the main picture its 309 to 203. I Still don’t think we’re dealing with a massive landslide like 1980,1992, or 2008. But, I also not longer think we are dealing with a repeat of 1976 which was squarely in the upper middle of the EC, with Biden winning in the high 290s.
I think we’re dealing with a repeat of 2012 for Biden and at worst it’ll be a 2004 with Biden winning by a precise thirty plus votes.
So thats what I got, I’ll keep sharing them as we go on, unless you guys destroy me here.
I do want to stress that this is my own opinion. Let me know what you think in the comments below, would love to hear what you think.