Several storylines are developing in parallel that indicate to me that the Right in this country, and its leadership in DC and at state levels, is going to attempt to start a war by fall.
1) China… Holdover trade war issues, combined with competing narratives about who is “at fault” over the COVID disgrace that has occurred in the US and to varying extents all over the world, combined with developing conflicts over the funding and operation of the WHO…
All of which is culminating in a massive set of competing propaganda campaigns as China moves to gain influence in its many debtor nations (Belt and Road initiative), while the US moves to retain primacy in the determination of trade, capital, and finance flows. China is attempting, with varying degrees of success,
2) Iran and Venezuela… have long been convenient targets for jingoistic bullying and machinations on the part of the Trump administration over the last 3.5 years, and on the part of the GOP in general for decades.
Make no mistake, there is plenty of blame and calumny that can be tossed at Democrats both in terms of administrations and in terms of overall party outlook…
And further make no mistake: Both Iran and Venezuela have enormous agency in this relationship, and neither of the governments in those countries have very much credibility or demonstrated commitment to their people or to overall global stability… no angels in this picture on any facet, that’s for sure.
So, now Iran is dealing with its oil glut and oil-services downtime to ship refined gasoline products and equipment for refineries and rigs and storage to Venezuela.
Needless to say, the Trump Adminstration, fresh off of recognizing Guaido as official president under US interpretation of Venezuelan constitutional law… or something… and even fresher off an attempted coup/putsch/provocation thingy (that failed miserably badly)… is probably going to interdict those tankers and equipment shipping operations…
And Russia and China are going to not be pleased about aggressive interference in the trade affairs of allied/proxy states.
My foreboding is that one of these two situations, or both feeding off of each other, will provide the excuse for Trump to try to engineer some form of hot conflict, probably in a proxy arena, with either (or both) Iran or China. Russia will be lurking in the background or more visibly depending on the way things play out, as they have enormous strategic interests in Venezuela and Iran.
Tension between Russia and China is not trivial, so that factor may be important to watch.
Supporting News Stories and Links below. I’ve tried to stick to relatively well-vetted stories from major outlets with original reporting, as opposed to derivative pieces and opinion pieces. There will be opinion in these pieces, of course… but not the main gist.
China/US snarling and influence competition:
www.nytimes.com/…
www.cnbc.com/…
www.cnbc.com/…
abcnews.go.com/…
carnegieendowment.org/...
www.washingtonpost.com/…
Iran/Venezuela/US … with China and Russia for a frisson of anticipation
www.theguardian.com/…
www.wsj.com/…
www.wsj.com/…
I would love opinions on the following article — it reads quite fascinatingly and has some interesting data… if it’s reliable and verified, which I do not know. Your thoughts?
www.argusmedia.com/…
www.wsj.com/…
www.wsj.com/…