The image up top is my Conservative map, the prediction sites like Electoral-vote.com have it at 350!
Electoral-vote.com
Look I know we are all still shell shocked by the 2016 election. These entries are my opinion, based on all the projections and polls available. I am not trying to spread Complacency and I think we still need to work like hell to make these numbers stick. In the past week me and my friends have been petitioning our families and asking them to support Biden. We have also been gathering petitions for down ballot campaigns.
Each election cycle I put together a weekly electoral college poll based on the numerous state wide polls and the various site consensus. I make these projections out of fun and also I suppose out of interest. Its a great way to handicap the race and I’ve usually had a pretty good idea about who will win the general election. The Clinton lose of WI is still pretty shocking to me.
So I figured since I was already making them, I’d share them. I wanna see what you guys think, what your predictions are, and what I maybe missing.
When making my maps I look at potential Dem pickups vs. 2016 which is currently : AZ FL MI PA WI. But all of this is of course subject to change. I look at what states the respective campaigns are buying media in, the Trump campaign is still dumping millions into the Florida Panhandle and has been for weeks, his campaign is pulling money out of Michigan subs, and his worries about Iowa are all very telling. I also look at thee overall party strength, and campaign footprint of each state. Finally I look at historical norms and try really hard to remove my own preference from the projections. This results in my projections usually being more conservative then most.
As the race stands and since my last map on Thursday, there has been a lot of movement. I mean tons! The Trump team has finally gotten it into the “Resident in Chief’s” head that he is down among senior voters by ten points in key battleground states. He is starting to panic because that is the election! That one demographic is enough to kill his re-election and he is travelling to Florida today to begin efforts to repair the damage. But, this has also created a solid movement in the polls of the sunshine state towards Biden. Biden is having to work hard to stabilize support among younger voters, and is making some headway ( the President’s press briefings have helped) and he is getting unheard of support (for a Democrat) among older and conservative voters in Florida.
Joe Biden, the presumptive nominee in the Democratic primary, has an average polling margin of 5% over incumbent President Donald Trump, the presumed Republican nominee, compared to an average polling margin of 4.0% of the Democratic nominee over the Republican nominee in the 2016 election. Thats important! The margin right from the beginning is better then 4 years ago. Right away our candidate’s personal ratings are widely higher than Clinton’s and more importantly Trumps.
These aren’t FDR numbers, but they are still moving slowly upward. This is also the time, since 1996, when an Incumbent tries to define their challenger by the spring. This is what W did with Kerry, Obama with Romney, and Clinton with Dole. This was the game plan for Trump and he has largely failed, mainly because of the Virus and also the looming depression. But, also because of his record and his continually weak performance in office.
In terms of states, I am breaking my golden rule yet again, I know I said just one time last time. I am still just not comfortable to give Georgia or NC to either candidate. Both have favored both Trump and Biden, yet its only by about 2 points each. Now I was very conflicted about WI, last week, but the Numbers keep coming up roses for Biden and he now has a 5 point lead. In fact in all of the six battleground states FL,PENN,WI,MICH,NC,OH he is winning in four. Ohio is still holding on to Trump and NC seems to be going back Trump after two weeks with Biden. Georgia is still with Biden and I just can’t let my guard down with it. It seems to good to be true. I am however confident (at the moment) with Florida, Biden is polling strong there.
At this time the miracle of 2016 is not sticking (but it still could). All the evidence points to a Blue Wall that still remains, it just hated Clinton.
The second District of Maine is not going to be won by Biden, at this moment. That is a change from last week. The entire region of New England is now so firmly in the Dem column that it seems unlikely the President would campaign long there. I am going to make a prediction right now, that the Democrats will make it in AZ. Like NM and VA before it, AZ is now the most likely state to turn to the Dems. Here is the shocker of the week, Biden is only down 5 points in some polls in UTAH! Freaking UTAH!
Penn is almost always regarded as a swing state, ever since 2016 the press has been worried about moving it solidly in the Dem column. I’m putting it as safe to Solid Democratic for a number of reasons, chiefly it was only won by a point (more or less) in 2016. One victory by a republican in one election compared to several won by Democrats doesn’t translate to a Red State turnover. It points to Republican gains due to a Democratic Candidate who didn’t click there. In fact all the states Trump turned in 2016 with the exception of Iowa is still Democratic states. However the message is clear and the lesson should be learned. If you nominated an candidate that doesn’t click with them and you don’t campaign there you are putting them within the Republican’s grasp.
Final map thoughts, I don’t think Biden is going to win Texas. But, I do think Trump is going to have to spend a lot to keep it and we are going to flip another Congressional District there. Its still a cycle away. The Court order on former felons having their voting rights restored may have just given the state to the Dems and for a long time. Voter suppression in GA is still a dangerous threat and will still keep it Red.
Despite false memories to the contrary, No Hillary Clinton was not far ahead at this time four years ago. In the too close to call map of four years ago she was at 230 this time during the cycle. Biden is currently at in the high 280s and has been there for several weeks now.
In the Corn Belt, do not be surprised if MO and Iowa start to become battleground states. Iowa in particular may very well end up in Biden’s column.
Arizona looks to be solid Biden, thanks in part to McSalley at top of R ticket. I don’t see how Trump wins MI again — that was a fluke. If Biden loses his defacto home state of PA, he is also losing the election everywhere else. He is going to lose Ohio at this moment and it doesn’t really matter. If Biden takes AZ, PA and MI I have him at 279 EC votes and thats the ball game.
Finally a word of concern and caution. I’m shocked at how shaky the Democrat’s hold of Minnesota is, and how competitive Wisc. is at the moment. I’m afraid if the trends hold we’re going to lose Minn and Wisc after this cycle for a few years until the Dems can remaster the populist Economic platform of the 20th century. We maybe on the verge of having both parties redraw their maps in 2024 and 2028.
Anyway bottom line in my Optimistic map its Biden 350 to Trump 188. In my past more conservative map which I put in the main picture its 304 to 234. I now think that is much too conservative and I give Biden Florida making his EV total at 333. I Still don’t think we’re dealing with a massive landslide like 1980,1992, or 2008. But, I think we are definitely looking at a repeat of either 2016, with another Trump miracle or a repeat of 2012 with Biden winning in the mid 300s.
So thats what I got, I’ll keep sharing them as we go on, unless you guys destroy me here.
I do want to stress that this is my own opinion. Let me know what you think in the comments below, would love to hear what you think.