Response from a virologist (Contributor at Forbes) to the recent LA Times story https://t.co/IesYkQetSS
Mutation does not equal “scary, go hide in bed”
I know “calm down” will never get the number of reflexive clicks that “oh no we’re all going to die” does. Psychologically our attention naturally gets drawn to scary shit.. Fear is an important part of our survival instinct.
But seriously Calm Down.
In fact, scientists have been tracking mutations in the virus since the beginning. By tracking these mutations they can figure out how transmission happens
Viruses mutate very quickly and accumulate changes during the process of transmission from one infected individual to another. The novel coronavirus which is responsible for the emerging COVID-19 pandemic mutates at an average of about two mutations per month.
See: Trevor Bedford, University of Washington: bedford.io/...
TLDR: It’s possible this mutation makes a difference, but the evidence doesn’t support this yet. Much more study is needed. LA times made a mistake, the article is too alarmist. We (as dems) need to be the adults, and be reality-based, and unlike the Orange Resident, use our critical thinking skills, admit mistakes and move on.
Here is a link to more evenhanded reporting on this recent finding by the Washington Post
Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 7:55:11 PM +00:00 · biscobosco
I’d like to update with some info from a comment added by a dkoser “LimeyexpatDave” to paraphrase his comment:
He used to research similar RNA viruses, ones which mutate more than this one. Coronaviruses are slower to mutate than many other viruses.
He says that many mutations to the “spike protein” can occur and the virus will typically still “stick to the cell” (ie be viable). But other mutations to this will cause the virus to fail. There are some viruses which can mutate enough to evade antibodies (for example influenza ) and still remain viable, but they are rare.
He concludes ““There’s a mutation that changes the spike protein” is emphatically not a reason to reach for the panic button.”
Tuesday, May 5, 2020 · 10:41:34 PM +00:00 · biscobosco
Just to clarify the purpose of this post is not to imply that concern about Covid-19 is overblown. its not, particularly in the US. But there is currently no clear evidence that the virus has recently mutated to get more transmissible or virulent, or that it won’t be possible to create a vaccine.