Welcome to the June 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
NV
VA
|
MI
MN
NH
|
AZ (Tilt D)
FL
NC
ME-02
NE-02
PA (Tilt D)
WI
|
GA
IA
|
OH
TX
NE-01
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
NC-GOV |
|
|
MT-GOV
NH-GOV
VT-GOV
|
MO-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
VA-SEN
|
AZ-SEN
CO-SEN
ME-SEN
MI-SEN
|
NC-SEN
|
GA-SEN A
GA-SEN-B
IA-SEN
MT-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
KS-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
AZ-2
CA-21
CA-45
CA-49
CT-5
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
KS-3
MN-3
NH-1
NJ-5
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
VA-10
WA-8
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-10
CA-39
CA-48
FL-26
GA-6
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
MI-11
MI-8
MN-2
NJ-7
NJ-11
NV-4
NV-3
NY-19
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-32
VA-2
|
AZ-6
CA-25
GA-7
ME-2
MO-2 (Tilt R)
NE-2
NJ-2 (Tilt R)
NJ-3 (Tilt D)
NM-2
NY-11 (Tilt D)
NY-22
OK-5
PA-1 (Tilt R)
SC-1
TX-24
UT-4 (Tilt D)
VA-7
|
IL-13
MI-3
MI-6
MN-7
NY-2
NY-24
OH-1
PA-10
TX-10
TX-21
TX-22
WA-3
|
AK-AL
CA-22
CA-50
CO-3
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
FL-25
IA-4
IN-5
IL-12
KS-2
KY-6
MI-7
MN-1
MN-8
MT-AL
NC-8
NY-1
NY-21
NY-27
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-31
VA-5
WI-6
WI-8
|
Likely D to Safe D:
CO-6: Considering the statewide numbers we’ve been seeing out of Colorado recently, Republicans aren’t picking up this Aurora-based seat.
Likely D to Lean D:
NV-4: Sigh, Steve, what are you doing?
Lean D to Likely D:
WA-8: Republican recruiting here has sucked and this was going to be a tough seat for them anyways
Tossup / Tilt D to Lean D:
AZ-SEN: I’ve seen enough, McSally would have to radically alter the dynamics of this race to hold on at this point.
Lean D to Tossup:
CA-25: The race became harder now that Mike Garcia in the incumbent.
Tossup to Tossup / Tilt D:
AZ-PRES: A lot of polling recently showing Biden up in Arizona.
Tossup to Lean D
ME-SEN: I’m done walking around this one with tiptoes because of Collins’s history of landslides. Several polls have shown her with shit approvals and Maine is a light blue state..
Tossup to Tossup / Tilt R:
PA-1: If Joe Biden does well enough at the top of the ticket here it might not matter, but our field here sure doesn’t look great.
Likely R to Safe R:
WI-1: After losing this district again in the Supreme Court race we won by double digits, I’m not really convinced this district is winnable in it’s current configuration, and we don’t really have any credible candidates here. Let’s see what happens after redistricting.
WI-7: I only had this one on the board based on the possibility of something weird happening during the special election, which it didn’t. This was Trump’s best district in Wisconsin.