Follow the Money
Let me explain why it appears Republicans are worried, and why we should get behind Bullock and push. (And we’ll get to how to do that pushing soon...)
I get two main types of Republican advertising on YouTube: Short Trump “survey” or “birthday card” ads, and pitches for Steve Daines by assorted big-name Republicans. I’ve gotten Daines ads featuring:
- Lindsey Graham
- Mitch McConnell
- Ted Cruz
- Marco Rubio
- Eric Trump
- Nicky Haley
- Rick Scott
In fact, as I was typing that list, I got the McConnell ad again. These ads are sponsored not by the Daines campaign, but by “winred.com”. (WinRed is a Republican online fundraising platform with the stated intent to compete with ActBlue. Actually producing and placing ads seems beyond that intent.)
First, I need to explain a little about how online advertising placement works. An advertiser can ask… (Hah, now I’m getting the Cruz ad.) ...to place ads based on the content being viewed, or the user’s profile. The more money they spend, the broader their coverage spreads out — with more money, they get viewers who are less precisely matched to their primary target groups. With enough spending, they can do saturation coverage. I am guessing that, for their Daines ads, they asked for the “politics” vertical, i.e. show the ads with political content. (I’m watching an interview with Keith Ellison on policing reform — I was shown the McConnell and Cruz ads with that.) And they likely asked for users who are inferred to lean Republican. But (here’s the point) they spent so much money on these ads that they’ve blown past all the “lean Republican” users, and are just going on the “politics” vertical selection.
Ok, so let’s take that as one indicator of Republican spending. Next stop is OpenSecrets. Daines has raised about $9.3M and has about $5.8M cash on hand. Bullock has raised some $5.8M of which $4.1 remains.
www.opensecrets.org/...
Daines has been fundraising for a long time, and has the incumbent advantage. Bullock did not get much notice nationally as a presidential candidate, and this delayed his entry into the Senate race. But as the governor of Montana, he is well known in Montana, which is where it counts. And there isn’t a huge cash disparity. (Ok, there is in absolute terms — $1.7M buys a lot of ads — but it’s not lopsided in relative terms.)
billingsgazette.com/…
(One curious side note: Both Republicans and Democrats tried a spot of election manipulation. They each had someone run for the Green Party nomination. The Republicans wanted their candidate to draw off support from Bullock. The Democrats wanted their fake Green candidate to win the nomination and then drop out of the general. The Greens were, obviously, not happy about being used, and disavowed both fake Green candidates. This sort of scheming is no better when we do it. Note also that ranked choice would prevent this type of scheme. www.opensecrets.org/...)
But we ain’t seen nuthin’ yet — the Republican Senate Leadership Committee PAC is buying $10M worth of ad space, to start in September. This is more than they are spending in other close Senate races.
Trump has started tweeting in favor of Daines, and has said he’ll travel to Montana to campaign for Daines. This may not be a plus for Daines...and Trump is likely to be campaigning for himself, or at least talking about himself, more than for Daines.
www.newsweek.com/…
Now, why are the Republicans in a lather? In one word…
Polling
Bullock is ahead in new polling. Back in March…
But in April...
- Montana State University: Bullock 46, Daines 39, other 6, undecided 7. This same poll has Trump leading Biden by 6 points, so this is a large swing to the Democrats for Bullock. This is not a Democratic pollster, nor Democratic leaning. www.ktvh.com/…
- Progress Campaign: Bullock 49, Daines 46, other / undecided 5. en.wikipedia.org/...
Don’t get cocky. Those are within the margin of error. All of ‘em. Polls tend to tighten as election day approaches, and the hesitant people may fall back to the “default” choice. And Republicans are making that $10M ad buy because they believe they can pull this out.
A cause for concern is that there were 151K total Democratic primary votes, vs. 219K total Republican primary votes, so their voters seem more motivated. Bullock’s win for governor was by a less than 4 point margin, and Trump won the state. All the main rating services score this as “lean Republican”.
ballotpedia.org/…
Another form of “polling” may be concerning the Republicans — actual voting, and fundraising. There is evidence from an actual election, namely, Jon Tester’s — he won by 3.5 points in 2018. And Bullock’s fundraising is outstripping Daines’s.
www.independent.co.uk/…
These things indicate that we’re within striking distance of taking this Senate seat...and that the Republicans believe so as well. So, how can we…
Bring It Home
First things first — here is Steve Bullock’s campaign site, where you can also find links to his social media accounts.
stevebullock.com
Bullock is running on “Make Washington more like Montana”. By that he means being collegial — working across the aisle, as he’s had to do in Montana — and cleaning up politics, especially dark money. He’s also running on his record as governor — affordable healthcare, improving schools, transparency in politics, protecting public lands, bringing good-paying jobs — and the promise to look out for Montana’s interests. But this is not primarily an issues-oriented campaign. The main messaging is: take the Senate away from Mitch McConnell. Bullock has support from People for the American Way, American Bridge, the Human Rights Campaign.
www.hrc.org/…
So it looks like the main effort will be to turn out any and all available Democrats, and to pull in undecided voters who will like the message of sanity and collegiality, among them the occasional Never Trump Republican.
If you are in Montana, especially, you can volunteer to do GOTV. Bullock’s campaign website does not have a volunteer link, so your first option is to get plugged in to the state Democratic party or to your local Democratic organization. The state party will likely be working with the DNC coordinated campaign. The state party’s website has links to get involved and to contribute:
montanademocrats.org
FInd your county party organization here:
montanademocrats.org/...
This has more suggestions for how to volunteer, including Indivisible, MobilizeAmerica:
5 Ways to Help Steve Bullock Flip Steve Daines’ Senate Seat in Montana
If you know of more ways to help out with Bullock’s campaign, please post in the comments!!
Other Montana Races
Turning out Democrats for Bullock will help other Democratic candidates in Montana. I should mention some other Montana statewide races, where you can also volunteer or donate.
First, Bullock won’t be governor any longer, and we really don’t want to lose that. The Democratic candidate is Mike Cooney, who is Bullock’s lt. governor.
www.cooneyformontana.com
Next is Raph Graybill, who is running for state Attorney General. Graybill is running on protecting healthcare — going after Big Pharma for price gouging, protecting women’s right to choose, keeping the Medicare gains made under Bullock. This would be a flip — the current AG is Republican. It would definitely be beneficial to give Cooney an AG of the same party, but protecting healthcare goes straight to quality of life in Montana.
www.raphgraybill.com
And Shane Morigeau, running for State Auditor. Want fair health insurance rates, and no sneaky tricks? Elect a Democrat as auditor! Also as auditor, Morigeau will protect against investment fraud, protect public lands, advocate for underserved communities, and bring American Indian representation into the auditor’s office for the first time.
shaneformontana.com
The Democratic candidate for Secretary of State is Bryce Bennett. I probably don’t need to explain why we need a Democrat in charge of elections.
www.bennettformontana.com
If you’re interested in other state executive offices, follow the links here to each office:
ballotpedia.org/...