In 2016, Pennsylvania shocked a lot of people by going Republican for the first time since 1988. The vote was excruciatingly close. From Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections:
|
|
Donald J. Trump |
Michael R. Pence |
Republican |
2,970,733 |
48.17% |
20 |
|
|
Hillary Clinton |
Timothy Kaine |
Democratic |
2,926,441 |
47.46% |
0 |
|
|
Gary Johnson |
William F. Weld |
Libertarian |
146,715 |
2.38% |
0 |
|
|
Dr. Jill Stein |
Ajamu Baraka |
Green |
49,941 |
0.81% |
0 |
|
|
Write-ins |
- |
- |
47,023 |
0.76% |
0 |
|
|
Darrell L. Castle |
Scott N. Bradley |
Constitution |
21,572 |
0.35% |
0 |
|
|
Evan McMullin |
-
|
- |
4,304 |
0.07% |
The 20 after Trump and Pence’s totals indicates the electoral votes they won. Please note that Trump did not win an absolute majority of the Pennsylvania vote. (BTW, if you visit Leip’s site, please bear in mind that he uses reverse colors for the parties. He uses blue to indicate Republican, and red to indicate Democratic.)
The following counties went Democratic in Pennsylvania in 2016. I will put the Democratic percentage of the vote in parentheses after them
Allegheny (55.9), Bucks (48.4), Centre (48.0), Chester (51.9), Dauphin (49.1), Delaware (59.3), Lackawanna (49.8), Lehigh (50.0), Monroe (48.4), Montgomery (58.4), and Philadelphia (82.3).
In the following counties Clinton was within 5 points of Trump. Again, I will put her percentages in parentheses:
Erie (46.4), and Northampton (45.8).
In most of the rest of Pennsylvania’s counties, Trump’s margins were huge, 20, 40, even 50 percentage points. Most of these counties are sparsely populated, but their cumulative effect was devastating.
Next, let’s look at voter registration stats for Pennsylvania. From the Pennsylvania Department of State:
Registered voters by party affiliation as of 22 July 2019:
Democratic: 4,038,099
Republican: 3,236,093
Unaffiliated: 789,618
All Others: 423,988
TOTAL: 8,487,798
Total number of votes cast in 2016 presidential election: 6,166,729.
Notice anything striking about those numbers?
Now let’s look at Pennsylvania’s demographics. NOTE: These data reflect Census Bureau estimates for Pennsylvania, not the eligible voter age population counted by the PA Secretary of State’s office. From Suburban Stats:
Pennsylvania voters by gender:
| Total Population: |
12,702,379 |
| Male Population: |
6,190,363 |
| Female Population: |
6,512,016 |
By “race”:
|
Male |
Female |
Total |
| Total Population |
6,190,363 |
6,512,016 |
12,702,379 |
| White |
5,075,422 |
5,330,866 |
10,406,288 |
| Black or African American |
657,938 |
719,751 |
1,377,689 |
| Hispanic or Latino |
367,818 |
351,842 |
719,660 |
| Asian |
167,981 |
181,107 |
349,088 |
| Some Other Race |
157,783 |
143,200 |
300,983 |
| Two or More Races |
115,895 |
121,940 |
237,835 |
| American Indian |
13,503 |
13,340 |
26,843 |
| Three or more races |
8,424 |
10,047 |
18,471 |
| Native Hawaiian Pacific Islander |
1,841 |
1,812 |
3,653 |
| Native Hawaiian |
440 |
500 |
940 |
| Alaska Native tribes |
112 |
123 |
235 |
Voter participation last 3 elections (from PA SOS):
| Year |
Highest Vote |
Office Used |
Voter Registration |
Percent of Registered Voters Voting |
Voting Age Population (VAP*) |
Percent of VAP Voting |
Percent of VAP Actually Registered |
| 2016 |
6,115,402 |
Pres. |
8,722,977 |
70.11% |
10,018,510 |
61.04% |
87.07% |
| 2012 |
5,753,670 |
Pres. |
8,508,015 |
67.63% |
9,910,224 |
58.06% |
85.85% |
| 2008 |
6,010,519 |
Pres. |
8,755,588 |
68.65% |
9,686,275 |
62.05% |
90.39% |
As you can see, voter registration has remained flat in Pennsylvania, even declining slightly in absolute numbers from 2008 to 2016 while the voting age population has increased by over 300,000. The percentage of the voting age population actually registered declined by 3 percentage points.
Our task is clear:
Increase new Democratic voter registration, particularly in southeastern Pennsylvania, which was our strongest area in 2016.
Increase our Democratic vote in the counties we won and came close to winning in 2016. I was particularly struck by Philadelphia County, where more than 400,000 voting age people didn’t turn out. This is our best county in Pennsylvania, with 82.3% for Clinton. If we had increased our turnout there by just 100,000, those 80,000 additional Democratic votes would have handed the state to Clinton. But it’s not just Philadelphia County—we must maximize our efforts in EVERY Democratic or near Democratic county.
There were 3.9 MILLION people of voting age in Pennsylvania who did not vote. We need to change that, big time.
In 2018, the Democrats won big in Pennsylvania. Politico has the story. Landslide wins in the races for U.S. Senate and Pennsylvania governor, and a net of 3 new Democratic U.S. House seats. The people of Pennsylvania are WINNABLE. We can DO this.
BUT WE NEED TO ACT!!
Here are the local Pennsylvania Democratic/progressive groups you can work through:
The Pa. State Democratic Progressive Caucus
The Pennsylvania Democratic Party
And a comprehensive list of progressive groups!!
Don’t forget Indivisible!
And Sister District!
Want more women elected in Pennsylvania? Look HERE.
ID REQUIREMENTS FOR EVERY STATE, HOW TO OBTAIN VOTER IDs
1. Information from The National Conference of State Legislatures, located here. This is an excellent source.
2. Information from Ballotpedia, here. This has a wealth of detail.
3. VoteRiders will help people obtain voter IDs. Take a look here.
ABSENTEE BALLOT REQUIREMENTS
Vote.org
Absentee and Early Voting
REGISTERING TO VOTE
1. State voting requirements can be found at U.S. Vote Foundation, located here.
2. You can register people to vote at Vote.Org, located right here.
3. You can not only register to vote at this site, you can check your current eligibility, right here.
AND TAKE A LOOK AT THIS THREAD HERE:
