A new poll is giving Donald Trump more material for a Twitter tantrum (watch for it!), showing former Vice President Joe Biden with a huge national lead. Biden takes 50% to Trump’s 36% in the new New York Times/Siena College poll. White voters gave Trump the presidency: In 2016, exit polls showed white voters going for Trump by a 21-point margin. Now, even among white voters, Trump leads by just one point, 44% to 43%. Despite Biden’s well-publicized struggle for enthusiasm among young voters, he leads among white voters under 45. Black and Hispanic voters give Biden leads of 74 points and 39 points, respectively .
The bad news for Trump, which is to say the good news, doesn’t stop there. The only age group giving Trump a lead in the new poll is people 50 to 64 years old—which means even people 65 and older are going for Biden, albeit narrowly. It’s not even July and there’s a long time to keep pushing and fighting and organizing until November, but it sure is better to be Team Biden right now.
Majorities of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including majorities of white voters, of men, and of self-described moderates. Most said that fighting the spread of the virus was more important than restarting the economy.
Trump’s handling of race drew 61% disapproval, and his response to protests against the police killing of George Floyd drew a similar level of disapproval.
But Trump led Biden on the economy, 50% to 45%. This is absolutely ridiculous, since all Trump did was preside over the economy former President Barack Obama handed off to him right up until it collapsed, while Biden participated in the Obama administration’s rebuilding of the economy after the Great Recession. But it is what it is, and if the election shifts toward economic concerns, it will be a point of strength for Trump.
On Thursday the Times will release six battleground state polls: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina. Here’s hoping they’re more big tantrum fodder for Trump.