As Donald Trump's political fortunes head into a tail spin, so go Senate Republicans. In a new battleground state poll released Thursday by New York Times/Siena, Senate Republicans are plunging—whether it's in states they were trying to defend or states they hoped could provide pickup opportunities.
The poll tested six states, three of which were once viewed as having competitive Senate races: Arizona, Michigan, and North Carolina.
While people can disagree about what constitutes "competitive" based on the polling, the GOP candidates in every state are suffering—they just can't escape the maelstrom of Trump's turbulence. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, once considered a vulnerable Democrat, now boasts a commanding 10-point lead over GOP challenger John James, 41%-31%.
Meanwhile, GOP incumbent senators in Arizona and North Carolina are struggling to greater and lesser extents. Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is down nine points to Democrat Mark Kelly, which is frankly a slightly more flattering picture than other recent polling, where she's been down solidly by double digits. And North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis trails Democrat Cal Cunningham by three points. In all three states, Trump is not-so-coincidentally sucking wind.
THE TRUMP EFFECT DRAGGING DOWN REPUBLICANS
|
Senate Deficit |
Trump deficit |
ARIZONA |
McSally -9 |
Trump -7 |
MICHIGAN |
James -10 |
Trump -11 |
NORTH CAROLINA |
Tillis -3 |
Trump -9 |
Trump is absolutely killing GOP senate candidates with voters who have a college degree. The Times writes: "In Arizona, Mr. Kelly leads Ms. McSally 49 to 39 among voters with a college degree. In North Carolina, Mr. Cunningham is up 52 to 29 with the same voters. And Mr. Peters also enjoys a comfortable margin among college-educated voters, leading Mr. James 47 to 29."
Many of the respondents cited in the Times article tied their vote against Trump directly to their vote against GOP incumbents and candidates.
“We’ve gotta get [Trump] out of there,” said Michael Maddox, 60, of Fayetteville, North Carolina, “and I think one of the ways to help do that is to try to remove some of the folks who support his agenda.” Maddox cited Trump's failures on the pandemic and racist language, such as "kung flu," as fueling his opposition to Trump.
Fern Fousse, 84, of Tuscon, Arizona called McSally a "Trump lackey" and flat-out rejected Trump's brand of Republicanism. “I really resent when I see in the newspaper that Trump is supported by all these Republicans,” Fousse said. “Well, I’m a Republican! I have a voice! And I am not a Trump Republican.” She's voting Democratic for the first time in her life this year.
Virtually all GOP senate incumbents and candidates in tough races this cycle have stopped featuring Trump in their ads. The question is whether any of them will risk drawing Trump's ire with something more overt. Based on where things are headed, subtlety isn't going to save any Republicans from getting dragged down this year.
And Senate Republicans might be dead in the water no matter what. Every member of the Senate GOP caucus up for reelection this year gave Trump their personal imprimatur when they voted to acquit him of abuses of power so flagrant that Russian President Vladimir Putin was surely green with envy.