As I have written repeatedly, Biden’s polling is different and stronger than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. This has been noticed repeatedly. Fox News recently released some swing state polls and here are the results:
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.Of course, it is not just Fox News which is an A rated pollster by 538, this was found by A plus rated NY Times / Sienna College when they conducted polls over six swing states.
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President Donald Trump is trailing presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden in six crucial swing states – all of which Trump won in 2016 – according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Thursday.
The poll found Biden ahead of Trump 47%-36% in Michigan, 49%-38% in Wisconsin, 50%-40% in Pennsylvania, 47%-41% in Florida, 48%-41% in Arizona and 49%-40% in North Carolina.
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.They also found a 14 point lead nationally for Biden over Trump.
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Biden Takes Dominant Lead as Voters Reject Trump on Virus and Race
A New York Times/Siena College poll finds that Joseph R. Biden Jr. is ahead of the president by 14 points, leading among women and nonwhite voters and cutting into his support with white voters.
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.Even more impressively, is Biden’s lead in the aggregate because this shows that it is not just an outlier, a one off poll. Biden is above 50% and has a 10 point lead in an aggregate of polls nationally according to real clear politics, a conservative outfit. Harry Enten had already earlier written than Biden was in a much better position than Hillary Clinton and that is even more true now. Here is where 538 finds the swing states in their weighted aggregate of the polls:
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.In Michigan, they find Biden up 10.7, in Pennsylvania, they find Biden up 8.1, in Wisconsin, they find Biden up 9.6, and in Arizona, they find Biden up 4.8.
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.Nate Silver and his organization 538 is conservative in their approach (I do not here mean politically, but rather they don't jump to conclusions and they don’t write off underdogs because they know that polls are snapshots of the state of an election at one point in time and that events can change). However, even they are acknowledging that Joe Biden is in a much better and different place against Donald Trump than Secretary Hillary Clinton was. Now, it is possible that things could change. I would not say that it is very likely, but it is possible.
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.And as of Wednesday, June 24,1 Biden leads Trump nationally 50.9 percent to 41.3 percent (a margin of 9.6 points).But some people have dismissed Biden’s lead by pointing out that Hillary Clinton also led in most polls of the 2016 election (Clinton, obviously, ended up losing to Trump). While this is true, Clinton’s lead was much smaller. Applying our current polling-average methodology to 2016 polls, Clinton led national polls by an average of about 4.0 points four months before the 2016 election, and 3.8 points on Election Day itself. So while a normal-sized polling error was enough to throw the 2016 election to Trump, it would take a much bigger — and much unlikelier — polling error for Trump to be ahead right now.Of course, Trump became president because he won the Electoral College despite losing the national popular vote. But if Biden wins the popular vote by 9.6 points, his current lead, Trump would be extremely unlikely to pull off the same trick. In our state-by-state polling averages, Biden currently leads in states worth 368 electoral votes, far more than the 270 needed to win.2
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.They also wrote that Trump’s electoral college advantage is slipping.
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It wasn’t just the Times/Siena survey that found Biden up, either. We got two more polls of Pennsylvania today that showed Biden with double-digit leads. One from GOP pollster Hodas & Associates gave Biden a 12-point lead, and one from Redfield & Wilton Strategies put him up 10 points.
The new Times/Siena polls also bumped Biden’s margin up about a point in three other states: Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. As a result, Biden’s average leads in Michigan and Wisconsin now exceed his national advantage. North Carolina, on the other hand, remains somewhat to the right of the country, but Biden still has about a 3-point lead. This marks a big change for Wisconsin, too, as up until this point, it had been more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole despite Biden’s lead there.
A new batch of polls released by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College this morning has caused a stir as they gave former Vice President Joe Biden leads ranging from 6 to 11 percentage points in six key battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Yet these surveys largely reinforced what our polling averages already showed: Biden has a sizable edge over President Trump in the states that are most likely to be the tipping point in the Electoral College, and he leads or is running even with Trump in some states that leaned Republican in 2016. As a result, Trump’s much-ballyhooed Electoral College advantage doesn’t look strong enough to save him — for the moment, at least.
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.The A plus rated NY Times / Sienna College poll also found that Donald Trump has 50% of registered voters who STRONGLY DISAPPROVE of him. With Biden above 50% and with Trump having 50% of registered voters strongly disapproving of him and with leads of 10.7 in Michigan, 9.6 in Wisconsin, and 8.1 in Pennsylvania which would be sufficient to give Biden an electoral college win, Trump is in real trouble and it doesn’t look likely to reverse itself. Trump has to win voters who don’t simply disapprove of him, but who strongly disapprove of him and support his opponent. That is incredibly unlikely. Democrats swept all three states governor’s races in 2018. In 2016, Trump was not an incumbent and some people hoped that he would rise to the office. Now, he is a well-known incumbent whom people either love or hate and with few people feeling truly neutral. He inherited an economy from President Obama who had put together the longest consecutive period of private sector job growth that this country has ever known. He has badly mismanaged the novel coronavirus pandemic which has led to over 120,000 deaths and over 42 million people filing unemployment claims. He has misread the room on the protests of police murders of unarmed black men and people of color. Trump has demonstrated no ability to appeal to or even desire to appeal to anybody outside of his base. This all means that while it is possible that Trump’s numbers could conceivably turn around and put together an electoral college win, it is not likely. Nevertheless, it is imperative to keep in mind that a poll is only a snapshot of the state of an election at one point in time. It is not a prediction and it is certainly not a prediction of where the election could turn up in five months if the leader’s supporters become complacent and stop doing everything that they can to help their candidate win. Therefore, it is important that we do not become complacent, that we get out the vote, and do everything we can to help Joe Biden win. The better he does, the more it helps our candidates further down the ballot, especially our senate candidates. It is important that we research the local offices because they are often people who can determine whether we make the thorough police reforms we need to.
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.In deep red Kentucky, either progressive Charles Booker who is leading or a more moderate Lt Col Amy McGrath will be battling Majority leader Mitch McConnell, in Kansas Dr. Bollier is running against the xenophobic bigot Kris Kobach, in Arizona Captain Mark Kelly is running against Senator Martha McSally, John Hickenlooper is running against Senator Cory Gardner in Colorado, in Iowa Theresa Greenfield is taking on Senator Joni Ernst, in North Carolina Cal Cunningham is running against Senator Tillis, in Texas more moderate Major MJ Hegar is taking on Senator Cornyn , in Maine Sara Gideon is running against Senator Susan Collins, in Georgia pastor Warnock is running against Senator Loeffler and in Montana Steve Bullock is running against Senator Daines. We are attempting to hold Senator Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama against Auburn Coach Tuberville. These are most of the seats we hope to either retain or take over.
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.To be clear, it looks like racial justice activist Charles Booker will be the nominee. If both he and McGrath have the same chances of winning (both being only an outside shot), then I would rather have a progressive. I only prefer a moderate if I don’t think that a progressive is very likely to win and at the same time I do believe that the moderate would have a good chance to win. Otherwise, I would prefer the progressive. That is even more true when the progressive is running on a racial justice platform like Charles Booker is.
Friday, Jun 26, 2020 · 9:32:02 PM +00:00
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Dem
Just to be clear, this isn’t like 1988. George Herbert Walker Bush was smart and educated and had served eight years as Reagan’s VP. Trump came in with zero experience. There was no incumbent in 1988. There is now. 1988 was 32 years ago when there was sparse polling. The 17 point lead was in one poll in a radically different environment. One party had been in control of the White House for eight straight years then. Not the case here. Michael Dukakis was not nearly as well known as Joe Biden is now. Joe Biden was President Obama’s VP for eight years. He was a senator for 4 decades before that. He is a known quantity unlike Dukakis. Trump has badly mismanaged a pandemic and due largely to his mismanagement about 120,000 Americans died and 42 million Americans have filed unemployment claims. This was not the situation in 1988. This is not like a poll lead of 17 points 32 years ago at a time when there was sparse polling and no incumbent who had mismanaged a pandemic badly leading to 120,000 American deaths and 42 million Americans filing unemployment claims.
Biden is well-known and Trump is a hated incumbent with a strong disapproval rating of 50% and Biden has a 10 point lead from AGGREGATED POLLING nationally and a 10.7 lead in Michigan from AGGREGATED POLLING and a lead of 8.1 in Pennsylvania from AGGREGATED POLLING and a lead of 9.6 in Wisconsin from AGGREGATED POLLING, and a lead of 4.6 in Arizona from AGGREGATED POLLING. He has a lead in Florida of 7 from AGGREGATED POLLING. He is up in North Carolina and polls even have him up or tied in Georgia and Texas and Ohio and Iowa. Trump is well known now and has never been popular and the novel coronavirus crisis is worsening.
Nobody is going to be complacent until Trump is gone. But a ridiculous comparison that is so different from today is not going to motivate anybody.