On Monday, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh voted with the 5-4 minority that failed to uphold a Louisiana law severely restriction abortion rights. It was just another in a long string of votes that confirmed everything we thought Kavanaugh was during his confirmation hearings: a right-wing ideologue. It also made a fool of Maine Sen. Susan Collins, who claimed at the time that Kavanaugh had promised her that “decisions become part of our legal framework with the passage of time, and that honoring precedent is essential to maintaining public confidence.” Yesterday’s vote was factually nearly identical to a case decided just four years ago. So much for “honoring precedent.”
We knew Kavanaugh was full of shit, and Collins probably did too, but she decided to throw away the “moderate” persona she spent decades building for this guy. And funny thing, he totally could’ve vindicated her yesterday, but he cared as much for Collins as he did for all the women he sexually assaulted in previous years.
Collins’ vote for Kavanaugh was a political body blow—the nominee fund for her eventual opponent hit $3 million immediately after the vote, and last I saw it was around $6 million—giving top-tier Democrats every incentive to consider the race after years of giving Collins a pass. And ever since then, every bad Kavanaugh vote has just further harmed her political prognosis.
There hasn’t been much polling in the race, but what we’ve seen has her trailing likely Democratic nominee Sara Gideon. Collins’ own personal ratings are the lowest among all senators not named Mitch McConnell.
At the root of her pain is the laughable assertion, made over and over again, that Kavanaugh would not vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. So there was a great deal at stake for Collins with Monday’s vote, the marquee abortion-related case for the year.
Here’s the thing: Kavanaugh was on the losing side of the decision, a 5-4 vote. Conservative Chief Justice John Roberts sided with the four liberal justices because of, get this, legal precedent. It would’ve been easy for Kavanaugh to reference what he told Collins during his confirmation process —that he would respect precedent—and give her a big win in her election year.
Collins could’ve then taken a victory lap around her state and in the Beltway Media: “SEE? I told you! I said he would respect abortion precedent, and he did just that!” Us Collins critics would’ve been flummoxed.
Furthermore, Roberts made clear that he still very much wanted to restrict abortion rights, just not via this one set of facts. Thus, he signaled that given a new set of facts, which he’ll likely get next year, he’d be happy to vote to restrict.
Kavanaugh could’ve tagged along, making the same arguments while looking to end abortion rights next year, after Collins was safely reelected. And remember—he was already in the minority. Doing so wasn’t changing the outcome of the case. It would’ve been a meaningless “no” vote to protect Collins, rewarding her for her support.
It would’ve been the honorable and kind thing to do, payback for her unwavering support when his nomination hung in the balance. But given who he is, “honorable” and “kind” really weren’t in the cards, clearly. He gave her the middle finger instead as he made a mockery of all the promises he supposedly gave her.
It’s really no surprise. He lied about his sexual assaults; why wouldn’t he lie about his eagerness to overturn abortion rights?
So, given that history, it also should be no surprise that he hung Collins out to dry, and her already weak case for reelection suffered a mortal blow.
