5-second Takeaway
The Threshold states are MN and NV. The Hot Contests are FL, OH, NC, GA, TX.
Combined with my Senate status, the key overall states are NC, GA, IA and MT.
Today’s update is based on polls from mid-May through June 4, largely before the murder of George Floyd took hold. Call it End of the 1st Wave of Covid-19.
It’s a snapshot
I’ll say it again. This is not a prediction, but the state of the electoral college race.
Moving toward Trump
NC Leans D to Tossup. Biden had a clear lead in polling in April and early May. A bevy of new pollsters show a mixed +4/ -3 picture. The only pollster to show up in late April and early June, PPP, shows Biden’s lead edging up from 3 to 4. So you could read NC anyway you want. Tossup
MN Safe D to Leans D. MN follow was finally polled again and Biden has a lead of 5%, that’s less than 1.5 x the MOE. Leans D
AZ Likely D to Leans D. Biden’s lead edged down from 1.75 MOE to 1.3 MOE.
Moving toward Biden
TX Leans R to Tossup. Only one poll from June. Quinnipiac shows Trump’s lead has slipped to 1 point. 270toWin also includes a May 11 Emerson poll showing Trump up 6%. You could call it Leans R, but my latest-month method says Tossup.
OH Tossup to Leans D. OH’s only June poll so far is from Fox. It shows Biden with a 2 point lead and a 3.5% MOE. That’s good enough for Leans D. Flimsy, though.
NE2 Tossup to Leans D. I was referred to a poll showing Biden has a strong lead in Omaha, so I updated my map after my last update.
WI Leans D to Likely D. Fox on June 3 shows Biden leading by 9 points.
UT Safe R to Leans R. Trump’s lead falls to 3%.
MO Safe R to Leans R. Trump’s lead falls to 4%.
SC Safe R to Likely R. Trump’s lead edges down to 10%, in a 4.5 MOE poll.
KS Safe R to Likely R. Trump’s lead holds at 12%, but this poll has 4.2 MOE.
Status
Can’t wait to see how the massive turnout of whites and young people in BLM rallies affects the June polls.
There are more uncertain electoral votes than two weeks ago. 69 EV Tossups, 170 Leaners+Tossups, 257 non-safe EVs.
Looking at the crucial 270 mark, we need 8 EV of the current blue leaners to go our way. My guesstimate is the most likely 10 are in Minnesota, the next most likely 6 are Nevada. Minnesota is the most likely state to win the election and Nevada is second. Together they could make up for New Hampshire and Maine if we lost them. FL, AZ, and OH are gravy.
Volunteer, donate, work the Senate and state races!
Electoral Votes
Candidate |
SAFE |
+ likely |
+ leaners |
Biden |
196 |
262 |
337 |
trump |
85 |
106 |
132 |
undecided |
257 |
170 |
69 |