The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Colorado, Oklahoma, and Utah held their downballot primaries on Tuesday, and you can find the results at the links for each state. We’ll have a comprehensive rundown in our next Digest.
Leading Off
● CO-03: Businesswoman Lauren Boebert, who runs a gun-themed restaurant where servers openly carry firearms, has defeated Colorado Rep. Scott Tipton in a stunning upset in Tuesday's Republican primary. With most votes counted late on Tuesday evening, Boebert led 54-46, prompting Tipton to concede.
There was no reason to think the ultra-conservative congressman would have any issues winning renomination: Shortly after Boebert launched her campaign in December, Tipton earned a coveted Trump endorsement tweet—usually more than enough to ward off any trouble. Like a classic Republican outsider, Boebert attacked the incumbent for his supposed eagerness to compromise with Democrats and his allegedly insufficient loyalty to Trump, despite that tweet. And like a classic Republican outsider, she raised almost no money, just $133,000 to Tipton's $1.1 million.
Campaign Action
But Boebert had a flare for capturing the attention of the media. Last year, she confronted Beto O'Rourke at an event in Colorado during the former Texas congressman's short-lived presidential bid. Challenging O'Rourke's plan for a mandatory buyback of high-powered rifles, Boebert declared, "I was one of the gun owning Americans who heard you speak regarding your 'Hell yes I'm going to take your AR-15s and AK-47s.' Well, I'm here to say 'Hell no you're not.'” The encounter predictably garnered her an appearance on "Fox & Friends."
More recently, Boebert defied local and state health ordinances aimed at mitigating the spread of the coronavirus to re-open her restaurant, Shooters Grill, which is located in a town named Rifle (yes, really). The authorities shut down the establishment, prompting a court fight that led to more headlines. Unsurprisingly, Boebert's campaign was the only one in the state to tell the Colorado Sun that it would be hosting an in-person party on election night.
Tipton had always presented himself as a fairly typical Republican and had never so much as struggled in a previous primary. Boebert's promise to provide a purer strain of extremism—she's even embraced the bonkers QAnon conspiracy theory—isn't anything unusual. What stands out is that she was able to communicate her grievances with a large enough proportion of the primary electorate to actually get heard.
In that she may have been helped by Tipton's apparent complacency: According to a Republican media buying firm, he didn't spend a penny on the airwaves ahead of the primary and only resumed advertising on Facebook after a long hiatus a week before the primary. Tipton's largest expense, in fact, was for fundraising consultants. Boebert, meanwhile, aired a TV ad that accused Tipton of "teaming up with AOC and her squad to give Boulder a bailout" and siding with Nancy Pelosi "to give amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants."
It's a dispiriting end for Tipton, who arrived in Congress after an upset win of his own during the 2010 Republican wave. Tipton had challenged Democratic Rep. John Salazar four years earlier but was crushed 62-38. Though he won a seat in the state House seat two years later, Tipton looked like he'd be the underdog against Salazar during their rematch. But 2010 was a very different year, and Tipton unseated Salazar 50-46. Democrats made several attempts to defeat him over the following decade, but Tipton always decisively won.
Trump predictably congratulated Boebert after her victory, yet while she celebrates, Republicans in D.C. will be shaking their heads in distress. Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, covering a huge swath of the state from Pueblo to the Western Slope, is red but not implacably so: After voting for Mitt Romney by a 52-46 margin, it moved to the right four years ago, handing Trump a wider 52-40 win. But in 2018's race for governor, it snapped back a considerable distance, giving the Republican candidate just a 50-46 edge.
Despite that contraction, Tipton managed to fend off Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush, a former state representative, by a slightly larger 52-44 spread that same year. But Mitsch Bush, who earned the Democratic nomination again on Tuesday by decisively winning her own primary, will now see increased interest in her candidacy, and with almost $1 million raised so far this cycle, she's already proven herself a vastly superior fundraiser to Boebert. With Republicans already facing long odds to retake the House, Lauren Boebert just made them longer.
Senate
● AL-Sen: CNN reports that the resurgent coronavirus pandemic has prompted Donald Trump to cancel his planned rally supporting former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville in the July 14 Republican primary runoff.
● AZ-Sen: Senate Majority PAC and SomosPAC, which is devoted to mobilizing Latino voters, have announced a joint $1.1 million Spanish-language TV and radio campaign in support of Democrat Mark Kelly. Their TV ad declares, "Mark Kelly, retired Navy captain, today has a new mission: fix Washington, working together to solve problems, protect health care for those with pre-existing conditions, and ensure equal rights for all."
● GA-Sen-B: Pastor Raphael Warnock picked up endorsements on Tuesday from former Sen. Max Cleland and Jon Ossoff, who is the Democratic nominee in this year's regularly scheduled Senate race.
● KY-Sen: On Tuesday, the Associated Press called the June 23 Democratic primary for Kentucky's U.S. Senate seat for Marine veteran Amy McGrath.
With about 544,000 votes counted as of Tuesday evening, McGrath, who had the support of the DSCC, leads state Rep. Charles Booker 45-43 in the contest to take on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Though the primary took place a week ago, state election authorities advised that final tallies would be delayed due to a surge in mail votes, which made up most of the total and take longer to count than traditional ballots.
Booker, a vocal progressive who has been a highly visible presence at protests of police violence, picked up attention and support as the election drew closer, and he did well with the voters who cast their votes on primary day. But McGrath, whose massive financial advantage allowed her to blanket the airwaves, made up for it by performing well with mail-in ballots.
However, serious obstacles loom for the Democrats’ new nominee. While McConnell has been unpopular at home for years, it's going to be difficult for McGrath to win over enough crossover votes to prevail in a state that Donald Trump carried 63-33, especially with Trump leading the Republican ticket. And while McGrath raised an astounding $40 million through early June, McConnell and his allies have demonstrated that they're prepared to match her considerable war chest.
Indeed, back in March, the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC reserved $10.8 million in fall TV time to aid McConnell. While vulnerable Republicans senators in swing states surely wish these resources could be deployed to their races, the GOP’s large investment will make McGrath's already difficult job even tougher. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Safe Republican.
● ME-Sen: VoteVets has launched a $1.1 million ad campaign against Republican Sen. Susan Collins. The commercial stars a local woman named Liesha Petrovich, who tells the audience that her husband was injured during his Navy service and "was prescribed pain killers that the drug companies said were safe. They weren't, and those companies knew it." Petrovich continues, "How could Susan Collins take money from the very drug companies that were poisoning Maine's veterans? She not only took money from opioid companies, she voted to not hold them accountable."
● TX-Sen: With two weeks to go before the July 14 Democratic runoff, Air Force veteran MJ Hegar is up with her first TV spot since the first round of the primary concluded in early March. Hegar talks about the coronavirus pandemic, pledges, "We won't let families be ripped apart at our border any longer," and declares, "We stand together against the systemic racism that has hurt Black Americans for far too long."
Gubernatorial
● MO-Gov: Democrat Nicole Galloway has released a poll from Garin-Hart-Yang that shows her trailing Republican Gov. Mike Parson 47-40, while Joe Biden leads 48-46 in a state that Donald Trump took in a 56-38 landslide four years ago.
We've seen two other surveys, which both came from conservative pollsters, in roughly the last month. In late May, We Ask America showed Parson and Trump up 47-39 and 48-44, respectively. A mid-June poll from Remington Research for the Missouri Scout newsletter also had Parson up 50-41, while Trump led 51-43.
House
● CA-01: Democrat Audrey Denney is out with a poll from Lake Research that shows her trailing Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa 46-41 as Donald Trump carries this rural Northern California seat 51-41. Trump won 56-37 here in 2016, while LaMalfa beat Denney 55-45 last cycle.
● FL-19: State House Majority Leader Dane Eagle has picked up an endorsement from Sen. Marco Rubio in the very crowded and expensive Aug. 18 Republican primary for this safely red seat.
● IN-05: Democrat Christina Hale has publicized a new survey from GBAO that gives her a 51-45 lead over Republican Victoria Spartz. This is the first poll we've seen here.
This sample also favors Joe Biden by a wide 53-43 spread in a district that backed Donald Trump 53-41 in 2016. That would be a massive shift from four years ago, but this suburban Indianapolis seat has gradually been moving to the left in the Trump era. Former Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly narrowly prevailed here 48.4-47.9 in 2018 even though he lost 51-45 statewide, and Democrats made historic gains in the area in last year's local elections.
● TX-06: The DCCC's Targeting and Analytics Department has conducted an in-house poll that gives freshman Republican Rep. Ron Wright a small 45-41 lead over Democrat Stephen Daniel in a race that hasn't attracted much outside attention. The survey also shows Joe Biden and Donald Trump deadlocked 46-46 here. This seat, which includes Arlington and rural areas south of Dallas, backed Trump 54-42, but last cycle, GOP Sen. Ted Cruz carried it just 51-48. Wright won his first term 53-45 in a contest that featured very little outside spending.
● TX-10: Rep. Sylvia Garcia, who represents the nearby 29th District, has endorsed 2018 nominee Mike Siegel in the July 14 Democratic primary runoff for Texas’ 10th Congressional District.
● TX-13: While former White House physician Ronny Jackson's allies have been running attack ads against lobbyist Josh Winegarner ahead of the July 14 Republican primary runoff, Jackson's own campaign is going negative for the first time.
His new spot begins, somewhat unexpectedly, by focusing on Jackson's failed 2018 nomination to lead the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. But the narrator tries to turn this apparently low-point around by saying, "The liberal left used lies against Ronny Jackson to attack President Trump. Now anti-Trump lobbyist and Democrat donor Josh Winegarner is using those same lies to help his friends in the swamp." The ad goes on to praise Jackson's military career.
● TX-23: While much of the national and local Republican establishment, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and retiring Rep. Will Hurd, are supporting Navy veteran Tony Gonzales in the July 14 Republican primary runoff for Texas' swingy 23rd Congressional District, Sen. Ted Cruz has gone his own way and endorsed businessman Raul Reyes.
While Reyes only trailed Gonzales 28-23 in the first round of the primary in March, he looks like the far weaker candidate for Team Red ahead of what will be a difficult race against Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones. Reyes spent months running a quixotic campaign against Hurd before the congressman decided not to seek re-election, and he’d raised just $165,000 from donors through the end of March. Gonzales, by contrast, took in more than four times that amount.
Cruz, though, feels differently, and he's putting his money where his mouth is. The senator's Jobs, Freedom and Security PAC has launched what the Texas Tribune reports is a six-figure TV buy, and its opening commercial stars the senator himself. Cruz tells the audience that "we need to send conservative warriors to defeat Nancy Pelosi's agenda and show some of our Republicans what a backbone is." Cruz continues, "President Trump needs more congressmen like Col. Reyes, leaders who won't surrender our border, our sovereignty, our way of life."
That may be a compelling argument in the runoff, but it's unlikely to be a winning message in November. Hillary Clinton beat Trump 50-46 here, and Cruz himself lost this seat 52-47 two years later against Democrat Beto O'Rourke.
Legislative
● Special Elections: We now have most of the votes in from last week's special election in Kentucky, and Democrats have scored a pickup:
KY-SD-26: With 43,000 votes counted, Democrat Karen Berg has defeated Republican Bill Ferko 57-43 to flip this suburban Louisville seat. On election night, Ferko held a large 79-21 lead, but that advantage was based entirely on just 5,200 votes from Oldham County, the smaller and more GOP-friendly turf of the district's two counties. Jefferson County, which is much more Democratic, had yet to report, but Berg pulled off a blowout 66-34 victory there, and she ended up winning decisively.
Berg's win slices the GOP's majority in this chamber to 28-10, with no other seats vacant.
Data
● Governor-by-LD, Senate-by-LD: Both chambers of the Minnesota legislature will be major battlegrounds in 2020, as Democrats seek to hold their 75-59 edge in the state House and undo Team Red's 35-32 majority in the state Senate. To get a better idea of what the playing field will look like, we're releasing new data that was crunched for us by elections analyst Bill Coningsby of the 2018 elections for governor and both U.S. Senate seats calculated by legislative district.
We'll start with a look at the upper chamber. While Hillary Clinton won just 28 of the 67 Senate seats despite carrying Minnesota 47-45 in 2016, Team Blue did considerably better across the board two years later. Indeed, gubernatorial nominee Tim Walz and Sens. Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith carried all of the Clinton seats and several more.
Smith won her special election by a 53-42 margin and took 39 districts, while Republican Karin Housley carried the other 28―a mirror image of the Clinton/Trump numbers from two years earlier Walz won the gubernatorial race 54-42 against Republican Jeff Johnson, and he won all of Smith's seats as well as an additional two. Klobuchar, meanwhile, pulled off a landslide 60-36 victory and took a total of 52 of the 67 Senate seats; altogether, she carried all of the Walz constituencies plus an additional 11.
Eight Republicans sit in Walz/Smith districts, though only two of them supported Clinton. The two Walz/Housley seats, including Housley's own district, are also held by Team Red, and both also went for Donald Trump. The one Democrat in a Trump/Johnson/Housley district is Matt Little, whose SD-58 backed Trump 54-38 before going for Housley and Johnson 52-44 and 51-45, respectively; Klobuchar, though, won 53-44 here.
Over in the House, Clinton took just 62 of the 134 seats, but once again, Walz, Klobuchar, and Smith carried all the same districts as well as plenty more. Smith carried 76 districts to Housley's 58; Walz once again took all of Smith's seats, as well as another two. Klobuchar, for her part, took 102 seats.
Just a pair of Republicans sit in Walz/Smith districts, while both Walz/Housley seats are also held by Team Red; all four of these seats also supported Trump. And just like in the Senate, there's one Trump/Johnson/Housley seat in Democratic hands: After backing Trump 57-35, state Rep. Paul Marquart's HD-4B went for Johnson 53-44 and Housley by a smaller 49-46. (Smith ran further ahead of Walz here than in any other House seat in the state). Klobuchar, though, won it 53-43.
P.S. You can also check out our writeup for the 2018 races by congressional district. In addition, we have a master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district, which we'll be updating as we add new states. You can find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.
