It goes without saying that the rapid reopening of U.S. states was a huge mistake. In other countries, nationwide lockdowns persisted for prolonged periods during which they not only tested and traced existing cases but formulated rules for a gradual, results-based reopening and have been able to successfully transition away from lockdown without destroying their economies. This is true even for countries like Italy, which made multiple large mistakes in their initial handling of the pandemic.
In the United States, some states’ stay-at-home orders were as brief as three weeks, while others refused to ever issue a stay-at-home order at all. Even as states tried to follow guidelines issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and National Institutes of Health (NIH), Donald Trump harassed governors by phone, in the media, and on Twitter, demanding the “freedom!” of reopening, no matter what the science said. It was absolutely clear from the beginning that Trump hoped an economic rebound would buoy his chances in November and cause voters to ignore all those bodies in the rearview. But with America reeling into an ever-growing catastrophe and states that reopened first threatening to vanish beneath a wave of new cases, Trump’s actions are proving to generate the worst of all possible outcomes. He’s making the pandemic worse, both in terms of lives and in lasting damage to the economy.
As Reuters reports, the United States really has flattened the curve … of economic recovery. With unemployment at levels far exceeding those during the Great Recession, it’s not COVID-19 cases that are slowing—it’s everything else.
People aren’t just losing their jobs. Even those who are keeping their jobs are working shorter hours. And there’s a good reason: Shopping is way down. There may be a contingent of Americans who believe the SARS-CoV-2 virus is a hoax, that people aren’t really dying, and that hospital beds are being occupied by manikins, but those people are a small minority. (Thank goodness.) Most people with at least a little concept of the potential threat represented by COVID-19 are staying away from stores, and far away from malls.
States that opened more slowly are starting to see improvements, but these are being overwhelmed by states that rushed to open and are now finding themselves flooded by rising cases. The lack of a coordinated federal response means that there will continue to be alternative waves of local restrictions being applied and relaxed in an uncoordinated, piecemeal fashion. This is proving deadly for the economy. Nationwide chains aren’t just adding mask requirements because they think it’s good for public health. They are making that change because people have been staying away from stores where they really don’t know what to expect.
In fact, a universal, nationwide mask mandate would not only be one of the most effective things that could be done to block COVID-19, it would also restore some confidence in the shopping experience. Such an order might be the last chance for some iconic American retailers.
Except that order isn’t coming. As much as Donald Trump might claim to hate Jeff Bezos, he has been the Amazon CEO’s best friend through this whole affair. COVID-19 from the outset placed stress on the weakest parts of the economy, and Trump’s actions have only multiplied that effect tenfold. The result has been to accelerate the shift to online retail, speed the destruction of malls, and concentrate wealth in even fewer hands as both mom and pop retailers and regional brands are forced into failure.