Did you know the election starts in 2 months? In some places, it does (and Minnesota is first, starting 46 days before the election). So with Trump behind in the polls and the pandemic driving the electorate, what do we think will happen in November? And is it really “a lifetime in politics” to go? Or is that cake baked?
Well, Mike Pence has already said the only poll that matters is election day. Yes, he did.
NY Times:
As Trump Slumps, Republican Donors Look to Save the Senate
Senators and donors worry that with President Trump in trouble and the House probably out of reach, the Senate could be their last chance to hold power in Washington.
“As Republicans get more and more in tune, it’s hold the Senate at all costs,” said Dan K. Eberhart, an energy executive and a major Republican donor. “The House is gone. And the White House is looking increasingly like an uphill battle. This is not a good picture for us.”
Adopt a Senator.
WaPo:
Endangered GOP senators under pressure as Senate considers new coronavirus measures
The spiraling pandemic and the increasingly virulent politics around Washington’s handling of the novel coronavirus are raising the pressure on Senate Republicans as they try to craft a fresh coronavirus relief package.
By the way, while the pandemic burns, Trump is bragging about walking down a ramp and passing the Montreal Cognitive Assessment.
And by the way, most voters really don’t care whether activists want to feel like they’re 10 points behind or 3 points ahead, so let’s not have that discussion this year. We matter, we’re motivated and we’re not complacent. But we also know a loser when we smell one. The stench is overwhelming.
NY Times highlights the centrality of Dr Birx failures, and the differences between her approach and that of Dr Anthony Fauci. Regular readers are familiar with this, as it reflects my own views of why Birx should have resigned weeks ago:
Inside Trump’s Failure: The Rush to Abandon Leadership Role on the Virus
The roots of the nation’s current inability to control the pandemic can be traced to mid-April, when the White House embraced overly rosy projections to proclaim victory and move on
Over a critical period beginning in mid-April, President Trump and his team convinced themselves that the outbreak was fading, that they had given state governments all the resources they needed to contain its remaining “embers” and that it was time to ease up on the lockdown…
Inside the White House, Dr. Birx was the chief evangelist for the idea that the threat from the virus was fading.
Unlike Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx is a strong believer in models that forecast the course of an outbreak. Dr. Fauci has cautioned that “models are only models” and that real-world outcomes depend on how people respond to calls for changes in behavior — to stay home, for example, or wear masks in public — sacrifices that required a sense of shared national responsibility.
In his decades of responding to outbreaks, Dr. Fauci, a voracious reader of political histories, learned to rely on reports from the ground. Late at night in his home office this spring, Dr. Fauci, who declined to comment for this article, dialed health officials in New Orleans, New York and Chicago, where he heard desperation unrecognizable in the more sanguine White House meetings.
Dr. Fauci had his own critics, who said he relied on anecdotes and experience rather than data, and who felt he was not sufficiently attuned to the devastating economic and social consequences of a national lockdown.
As the pandemic worsened, Dr. Fauci’s darker view of the circumstances was countered by the reassurances ostensibly offered by Dr. Birx’s data.
Think the Times reads like a Jared hit piece? It was the kinder one. See also CNN with Jared defending her:
How Dr. Deborah Birx's political skills made her the most powerful person on the coronavirus task force
"Her reputation is finished," a former State Department colleague said, mentioning specifically the
moment in April when, with Birx sitting nearby, Trump talked about using disinfectant as a cure for coronavirus. "It's one thing to be disagreeing on policy, but you're a medical doctor and you're going to sit in room with this President who says you can inject yourself with bleach?"
"I feel she has signed her fate in blood with these guys," the person said. "She's a Trumper now." …
This again proves to be where the divide between Birx's methods and those of Fauci have resulted in a longer leash from the White House, and a more vocal and visible presence for Birx. That's not to say she isn't fond of Fauci. "She gets along with him well," said Birx's former State Department colleague, who is familiar with her interactions with Fauci. "They just have different styles. He speaks his mind no matter what; she plays with the long-game top of mind."
Others offered a less flattering perspective.
"Personally, we love her, but she tells people what they want to hear and sometimes it's conflicting," said one senior Trump official.
Heather Digby Parton/Salon:
Yes, Trump's in deep trouble — but there may be a disturbing method to his madness
Is Trump profoundly incompetent or a major threat to democracy? Those two things don't have to be different
I've never been one to say that because he is ignorant and incompetent, he hasn't done much harm. Clearly he has. But I have always felt that he exposed weaknesses in our system and frankly, our society, that are likely to be exploited by a future authoritarian who is more efficient and capable than he is.
There's another dimension to Trump's accomplishments, however, one I hadn't thought about before. Greg Sargent of the Washington Post wrote about a new study positing that "demagogic populists" like Trump and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil achieve at least some of their goals not by what we think of as authoritarian overreach but by what they call "executive underreach":
ABC:
Pandemic surge damages Trump, boosting Biden's White House bid: POLL
Public preference for Biden in trust to handle the pandemic has soared
Three and a half months ago the two candidates were virtually even in trust to handle the pandemic, Trump +2 percentage points, 45-43%. Today, with COVID-19 cases surging around the nation, Biden leads Trump on the issue by a 20-point margin, 54-34%...
Biden’s also advanced, nearly to par with Trump, in trust to handle the economy, after trailing in March. Biden leads Trump by 9 points on handling crime and safety, a focal point of Trump’s in recent weeks. And on race relations, Biden leads by his largest margin, 25 points, 58-33%….
Rising disapproval of Trump’s job performance is broadly based. It’s up 22 points since March among those very worried about catching the coronavirus, to 82%. It’s also up in two of his key support groups, +20 points among rural Americans and +12 points among evangelical white Protestants, to 45 and 30%, respectively. Disapproval also is up especially among Southerners (+18 points); and Blacks, women, moderates and suburbanites, all up 15 to 16.
People who don't understand the pandemic, wish it away, or just 'set it aside' while they calculate politics are in an alternate universe from voters. That includes the White House and many pundits.
Politico:
Why DeSantis yanked Florida's surgeon general from a coronavirus briefing
The coronavirus was sweeping Florida in April when state Surgeon General Scott Rivkees warned that people in the state might have to social distance for up to a year. Minutes later, an aide to Gov. Ron DeSantis whisked him out of the briefing.
The aide, DeSantis communications director Helen Aguirre Ferré, blamed Rivkees' abrupt removal on a scheduling conflict. But state records obtained by POLITICO challenge that assertion…
Rivkees, who leads the Florida Department of Health, has had few public appearances since and hasn't attended a DeSantis coronavirus briefing since May. He regularly meets in private with the governor, according to the governor’s public daily calendars.
AJC:
Lewis found himself a confessor to those repenting of racism
They came from the children and grandchildren of people who fought in the 1960s against him and other civil rights activists — and even from those who remained on the sidelines.
The Atlanta Democrat would get them in person, too, from elected officials, community leaders and others as he crisscrossed the South commemorating milestones in the hard-fought battle for racial equality.
One of the most memorable came late in his career.
In January 2009, former Ku Klux Klan member Elwin Wilson confessed to being part of the white mob that bloodied Lewis and another Freedom Rider in Rock Hill, South Carolina, nearly 48 years earlier.
Lewis noted in his 2012 book “Across that Bridge” that Wilson was the first of his attackers to apologize for his actions. Wilson traveled to Washington a short while later to meet Lewis face-to-face and ask for forgiveness.
“Without a moment of hesitation, I looked back at him and said, ‘I accept your apology,’” Lewis wrote. “This was a great testament to the power of love to overcome hatred.
Jim Galloway/AJC:
A way to keep the late John Lewis as the ‘conscience of Congress’
John Lewis served 33 years in Congress, often serving as its conscience. There is a way to keep him there, even in death.
Remove the figure of Alexander Stephens, the first and only vice president of the Confederacy, from National Statuary Hall in the U.S. Capitol.
Replace him with Lewis.
And restore the Voting Rights Act. That’s more important that statuary or renaming a bridge, excellent ideas though they are.
And finally (Biden by 8 in the new Fox News poll):
Steven Shepard/Politico:
Polls show Biden routing Trump. Here's how to read them.
A new survey from ABC News and the Washington Post is the latest high-quality poll to show Biden with a double-digit lead.
President Donald Trump’s bad poll numbers are getting worse.
The latest data point: A new ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday shows Trump 15 points behind former Vice President Joe Biden among registered voters, 55 percent to 40 percent….
It’s not a coincidence that all three of the polls out over the past week showing Trump trailing badly also show a marked decline in voter opinions of his response to the coronavirus crisis.
In the Quinnipiac poll, only 35 percent of voters said they approve of Trump’s response to the coronavirus, down from 42 percent a month ago. In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump’s approval on the virus took a similar plunge, going from 43 percent in June to 37 percent in July.
Nurses for the win.