This is the seventh in an ongoing series, updated biweekly, about where the real election — the one decided state by state, rather than national polling — stands. This entry confirms what we saw two weeks ago, with Biden maintaining a large lead according to some election sites, while others that are newly updated now reflect movement toward Biden as well. As usual, we’ll start with the electoral vote breakdowns, then move on to the state-by-state polling for the swing states. All the numbers are from July 24. Today we are adding a new model, the JHK model.
JHK model: Updated July 24. Biden 349, Trump 189. The JHK model is described as based on four components: fundamentals (partisan lean and a custom economic index, which becomes less important as more actual polling comes in), polling, expert ratings (Sabato, Cook, Bitecofer etc.), and a state similarity regression. IA, GA, OH and TX appear to be the weakest states for either side.
Princeton Election Consortium: Updated daily. Biden 351 (a drop of 52 from the 403 EVs for him last time), with the site header and histogram now in alignment. The “moneyball” states are still AK, AR, and IA (and I’m adding Alaska as one of the individual states we consider). The link to PEC’s 270towin.com map shows a lower count for Biden (324), so that doesn’t appear to be updated to the current PEC count. The map shows IA, NC, TX and WI as toss-ups.
CNN: No update from their initial June 11 map. Biden 232, Trump 205, 101 tossups. Let’s hope they update their look at the EV soon.
The Economist: Updated July 24. Biden 352, Trump 186 (a shift of +6 for Biden). Tossups (“Uncertain” states) are GA, IA, NC and OH.
Electoral-vote.com: Updated daily. Biden 406, Trump 132, 0 ties (a swing of 38 to Biden, with TX moved back into the D total based on the latest poll). Weakest D states are AZ, GA, NC, NV, OH, TX; weakest R states are AK, AR, IA, UT.
Plural Vote: Updated daily. Biden 343, Trump 195 (a shift of 1 towards Trump). Weakest D states are AZ, GA, NC, NH; weakest R states are IA, OH, TX.
Rachel Bitecofer: No update; latest map here. Biden 289, Trump 163, 86 tossups. Tossups are FL, GA, IA, NC, OH, and 1 Congressional district each in ME and NE.
Inside Elections: Updated July 17. Biden 319, Trump 188, 31 tossups (a swing of 50 to Biden). Tossups are GA and NC. Weakest D states are AZ, FL, WI; weakest R states are IA, OH, TX.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Updated July 14. Biden 268, Trump 204, 66 tossups (no change). Tossups remain AZ, FL, NC, WI and 1 Congressional district in NE.
Cook Political Report: Updated July 13. Biden 279, Trump 187, 72 tossups (an increase of +1 tossup). Tossups are AZ, FL, GA, NC, and 1 EV in ME.
Real Clear Politics: Updated! Biden 222, Trump 115, 201 tossups. RCP loves the tossup category so much, they just increased it by 10 EVs. Not very informative, but...RCP also offers the option of a “no tossups” map that assigns every state on the basis of recent polling. And that map shows Biden 352, Trump 186, which is not just in the same neighborhood as PEC, The Economist, PluralVote, and JHK — it’s next door to them. I’ll provide both of these counts for RCP, going forward.
With 11 sites tracked, 8 predict an outright Biden win (9 if we use the RCP “no toss-ups” map), 6 of them with 300+ electoral votes, and Sabato putting Biden right on the cusp. Five models (if we include RCP’s “no tossups”) have converged on the 343-352 EV range for Biden. Electoral-vote.com’s model would be very close to this range if TX’s 38 EVs swung back to Trump.
Now let’s look at current polling averages from fivethirtyeight and RCP for the states generally rated as toss-ups or weak leaners. These are presented in order of largest to smallest margins for Biden as predicted by 538. This week we add Alaska. I’ll also add MI back in, to make sure the Midwestern trifecta that handed Trump the presidency is fully covered.
(1) MI: Spreads are Biden +7.7 (538) and Biden +8.2 (RCP).
(2) FL: Spreads are Biden +7.6 (538) (up 1.3) and Biden +7.0 (RCP).
(3) PA: Spreads are Biden +7.5 (538) (down 0.1) and Biden +7.3 (RCP).
(4) WI: Spreads are Biden +7.0 (538) (down 1.1) and Biden +6.4 (RCP).
(5) NV: Spreads are Biden +6.7 (538) (down 2.0) and Biden +4.0 (RCP).
(6) AZ: Spreads are Biden +2.8 (538) (down 0.2) and Biden +2.8 (RCP).
(7) NC: Spreads are Biden +2.2 (538) (down 1.2) and Biden +2.0 (RCP).
(8) OH: Spreads are Biden +2.0 (538) (down 0.6) and Biden +2.3 (RCP).
(9) TX: Spreads are Even (538) (Biden up 1.3) and Trump +0.2 (RCP). At this point, I think we have to call TX a genuine toss-up this year.
(10) IA: Spreads are Trump +0.4 (538) (Trump up 0.1) and Trump +1.5 (RCP).
(11) GA: Spreads are Trump +1.4 (538) (Trump up 3.1) and Trump +2.7 (RCP).
(12) AK: No average — the July polls on 538 have Trump up by 1 and 3 pts, while RCP only shows the +3 poll. So, call it Trump +1.5. Comparable to GA, but a win for Biden would be extraordinary because no D has carried Alaska in a presidential election since 1964, and no D candidate has gotten above 41% in the last 50 years. I’ll continue to include AK, but we need some more evidence before calling it a toss-up.
Most movement in 538’s individual state averages over the last two weeks favored Trump, but shifts of 1-2 points can really be considered statistical noise. That means we shouldn’t get too alarmed about Biden dropping 1.1 pts in WI — or too excited about him gaining 1.3 in FL. The Midwestern trifecta remains just where we want it to be, and if Biden wins those 3 states (and keeps everything Clinton won) it’s over. Everything else is a bonus. I’m sure we’d all be delighted to see Trump crushed in an electoral rout, and there’s no doubt he and his enablers deserve it. The Trump campaign is losing FL, AZ, NC and OH, and will have to spend piles of money in those states — but even winning every single one of them won’t get him a second term. And if he loses TX, the rout is on, and the GOP is suffering a once-in-a-generation defeat.
The next update will add ElectionProjection.com to the lineup. As always, if there are any additional sites that you would like to see tracked, please let me know!
