Happy Fourth of July. Polls show Americans want independence from this idiotic Russian agent by a margin of 50% to 40%. Shocking it’s not closer to 80-20.
5-Second Takeaway
The Red, Blue, Taupe of each state has firmed up, but polls of some of the blue states are jumping between Leans, Likely, and Safe categories. The only non-tossup Red states polled the last month or two are MT, UT, and AR. Results were tight enough in UT that the pollster basically disavowed their own poll, see UT below. I wonder if we’d see anything similar if somebody polled MO and KS?
Biden maintains his lead, 301 EVs + 49 Leaners. Trump has 119 EVs + 7 Leaners. 62 Tossups.
The 270 Threshold continues to sit in the Likely Ds somewhere between FL, WI and NH.
Hot contests are TX, IA and OH. GA is following NC to baby blue.
Must Wins
PA Recent polls show Biden’s lead in the Safe, Likely, Leans and Likely categories. Likely D
MI There seem to be some pollsters with unfamiliar names whose results are biased in favor of Trump compared to most polls. Trafalgar (rated C-) is such a pollster, owned by Republicans, one who showed Trump leads in key states right before the 2016 election. Michigan shows mostly Safe D, but a Trafalgar poll that just timed out showed him up only 1%. Likely D.
WI Trafalgar is up to shenanigans in WI, too, trying to tell us Trump leads by 1, when his average is -9 pts. Likely D
Tossups
TX They’ve told us for a decade that Texas will be moving purple one day, thanks to Latino voting growth and other trends. It’s still the biggest red state. But it’s not out of range for Biden. In the last half of June, Trump and Biden swapped 2 pairs of Leans polls (½ to 1.5 * MOE). The two done by the same pollster, PPP, show Biden gaining, from -2 to +2 pts. Tossup
OH (NoChg) Every time Ohio has voted for the Democrat, he has won. Biden scored two small leads in June. 538 has him at +2.5%, which is odd since they don’t have him winning a poll by that much since March. Tossup
IA (NoChg) Trump scored two one-pointers and a tie in June. Tossup
Baby Blue
AZ All the polls lately and most this year show Biden with a 2 to 7-point lead. Leans D
GA Biden is gaining in this new battleground state. I think if they remove all the obstructions to voting rights for African-Americans in this state, Georgia will become dependably light blue. Leans D
NC Biden is flirting with Likely D, but Fox (A-) shows +2 and E. Carolina (bias R) shows +1. Leans D
NV (NoChg) Only 3 polls this year. Biden +8 in Jan, +3 in Feb and +4 in Apr. Leans D
baby pink
AR (NoChg) Still just that one Jun 9-10 poll by Hendrix College showing Trump +2. Leans R
Changes since June 25
FL Polls of the biggest battleground all show blue, but they’ve hit all 3 categories: Safe 6/16, Lean 6/25, Lean 6/25, Safe 6/25, Likely 7/1. We’ll call it still Likely D
MT Montana is a red state who re-elected Democrat Jon Tester for a third term in 2018 and shows a love for current governor and Senate candidate Steve Bullock. There’s a wide gap between polls from Montana State Bozeman/U of Denver showing Trump ahead by 5.5 in May, and the U of Montana showing Trump’s lead at 22 in Feb and 14 in Jun. Do we think Trump regained his Safe lead, or has his lead tightened by 8 points as it has in the UofM polls? I am splitting the difference. Likely R, which is up from Leans R.
UT Y2 Analytics, who put out that May 9-15 poll showing Trump leading only 44-41, apparently was embarrassed by that fact and put out a new report on the same polling data showing that if they weighted education differently, they could move that to 46-40 or even 48-38. They said “Utah is a red state and Trump will win comfortably. Although he may not win by as much as other Republicans.” Discount Y2 Analytics. Now Likely R
A word on my analysis methods…
I take all polls I can find from 270ToWin or 538 for the latest month polled, omitting any pollsters 538 rates C or below (like Change Research and Gravis) or that have a noticeable bias (like Gravis, Trafalgar or Rasmussen). To avoid a simple average without working a weighted average, I categorize each poll to get a predominant category. I check that against the category of a simple average of the polls.
Stale states will stay in the same category until new polling comes in.
I categorize leads by this arbitrary set of rules:
My definition of a Tossup is a lead of +/- ½ MOE. That means the leader has less than a 60% chance of truly leading. See Fig. 1 below.
I define Leaner as between ½ and 3/2 of the MOE, so the reported leader has between 59.9% and 77% chances of actually leading. See Figs. 1 & 2 below.
My Likely category is between 3/2 and 3 * MOE, so the leader has between 77% and 93% chance of being ahead.
My Safe category is only for leads at least thrice the MOE, so the leader has a greater than 93% chance of being ahead.
I am not doing any predicting, just blending any and all polls within the last month (or last month taken — if the last poll was in April and it’s now June, I’ll take the month of April) rated B/C or better by 538.
This is intended to give a snapshot of the horse race. Nothing more.
Figure 1. Lead = ½ the margin of error. Leader polls 48%, Trailer 46%, MOE 4%. Assume normal distribution and Trailer increases exactly match Leader decreases (undecided is constant). Probability of Leader really leading is the probability that his true percentage is 47 or higher (hence, the probability that the Trailer’s true chance is 47 or lower). From the graph, Prob = 59.87%
Figure 2. Lead = 1.5 x the margin of error. Leader polls 48%, Trailer polls 42%, MOE 4%. Assume normal distribution and Trailer increases exactly match Leader decreases (undecided is constant). Probability of Leader really leading is the probability that his true percentage is 45 or higher (hence, the probability that the Trailer’s true chance is 45 or lower). From the graph, Prob = 77.34%
Try out this and other scenarios at onlinestatbook.com/…