PPP also finds independent Alyse Galvin leading Republican Rep. Don Young, who has held this seat since 1973, by a slim 43-41 margin after losing to him 53-47 last cycle. Galvin, like Gross, is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic primary, and PPP identified them both as independents in its survey. The only other numbers we’ve seen here came from a mid-June Data For Progress survey that showed Galvin ahead by a similar 43-42 spread.
Republicans have long been the dominant party in Alaska politics, but the nationwide decline in Donald Trump’s fortunes could very well be hurting Team Red in The Last Frontier. While Trump took Alaska 51-37 in 2016, PPP shows him ahead just 48-45 now. If Trump carried the state by 3 points in the fall, it would be the party’s smallest margin of victory since 1968, when Richard Nixon beat Hubert Humphrey by that same margin.
While this poll gives Democrats some reasons for optimism, there are also some reasons for caution. First, as we always warn, analysts should never let one poll determine their outlook on a race, even if there’s literally just one poll out there. We also haven’t seen any major outside spending from either party in any of Alaska’s contests, so at least for now, neither Democrats or Republicans are acting like either contest is close enough to merit an investment—though that could always change.
PPP also notes that, while Galvin is narrowly ahead in the House race, the undecided voters back Trump by a 57-31 margin, so Young may pick up support as Election Day draws nearer. In the Senate race, though, the undecideds actually prefer Biden 43-42, which is a positive sign for Gross.
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