The biggest news of Tuesday’s primaries was the defeat of two House members, Kansas Republican Steve Watkins and Missouri Democrat Lacy Clay, but there was a ton of other action across the country.
Arizona
• AZ Corporation Commission: While the secretary of state’s website has not yet posted the number of write-in votes from Tuesday’s primary, the Arizona Capitol Times reports that Republican Jim O’Connor has secured more than enough support to advance to the general election.
Reporter Dillon Rosenblatt writes that O’Connor has received at least 20,000 write-ins, which is considerably more than the almost 6,700 that he needed to make the November ballot. O’Connor had to wage a write-in campaign after four of the GOP’s six candidates failed to turn in enough valid signatures earlier this year.
Republicans currently hold a 4-1 majority on the Corporation Commission, which is tasked with regulating utilities throughout the state and has been nicknamed Arizona's "fourth branch of government" due to the distinct role the state constitution lays out for it. Team Red is defending all three of the seats up this year, though (the other two will be on the ballot next in 2022), so Democrats need to flip two of them to take control.
Three Democrats and three Republicans will face off on the November statewide ballot. (Had O’Connor fallen short in his write-in campaign, only two Republicans would have been represented in the fall.) Voters may select up to three candidates, and the three contenders with the most support will prevail.
• Maricopa County, AZ Attorney: With 320,000 votes counted in the Democratic primary, Julie Gunnigle, who served as a prosecutor in Illinois, led former public defender Will Knight by a wide 60-22 margin. Most local media outlets have not called this race and Knight does not appear to have conceded, but it would be a big surprise if the race shifted enough to cost Gunnigle the lead. The winner will take on Republican incumbent Allister Adel, who was appointed to this post last year, in the November general election to become the top prosecutor in America's fourth-largest county.
• Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff: With 387,000 votes tabulated in the Republican primary, former Chief Deputy Sheriff Jerry Sheridan leads his old boss, the disgraced ex-Sheriff Joe Arpaio, 37-36—a margin of 572 votes. The winner will face Democratic incumbent Paul Penzone, who denied Arpaio a seventh term as the top lawman of Arizona's largest county four years ago, in November.
• Pima County, AZ Attorney: Defense attorney Laura Conover won the Democratic primary to succeed retiring incumbent Barbara LaWall, a Democrat who has served as the top prosecutor in Arizona’s second-largest county for 24 years. Conover beat county prosecutor Jonathan Mosher, who had LaWall’s endorsement, 57-37, and Mosher has conceded. No other candidates are running in the general election for this Democratic-leaning county, which is home to Tucson and some of its suburbs.
During the campaign, Conover highlighted how she had not served as a prosecutor before. She told The Appeal that this “is my strength, not my weakness,” and argued that the office “need[s] a person from outside to shift that culture.” Both Conover and Mosher said they would use this post to push for criminal justice reforms.
Kansas
• KS-Sen: After he sabotaged them in 2018's gubernatorial contest, Kansas Republicans managed to avoid nominating the nightmare named Kris Kobach for this fall's open-seat race for governor. Rep. Roger Marshall handily held off Kobach 40-26 on Tuesday night, while self-funding businessman Bob Hamilton finished a distant third with 19% of the vote.
Operatives in both parties believed Kobach could win the primary, and Democrats spent large sums to aid him in the hopes that he'd be a much easier target in the general election for their candidate, state Sen. Barbara Bollier. Republicans countered with millions in TV ads of their own boosting Marshall, convinced he was the far better choice.
The evidence either way is limited and mixed. An early June survey from Democratic pollster Civiqs conducted on behalf of Daily Kos found almost no difference between the two GOP options: Marshall led Bollier 42-41, while Bollier edged Kobach 42-41. However, an NRSC poll from mid-May—released with the very specific goal of undermining Kobach—put Marshall up by a wide 46-35 margin but only gave Kobach a 44-43 advantage.
Kansas holds the longest streak in the nation of electing only Republicans to the Senate: The last time Democrats won here came during FDR's 1932 landslide. However, Kansas is one of the better-educated states in the country, and Bollier, who served in office as a Republican until leaving the party two years ago, can readily describe herself as a moderate. The GOP is naturally favored here, but the Sunflower State could yet hold some surprises. We rate this race Likely Republican.
• KS-01: Former Lt. Gov. Tracey Mann easily beat Finney County Commissioner Bill Clifford 54-33 in the GOP primary for Kansas' 1st Congressional District, which Rep. Roger Marshall left open to run for Senate. Mann will be a lock in November to win the dark red "Big First," so nicknamed because it covers more than half the state. The district has been a launching pad for many Senate careers, including for both of the state's current senators as well as Bob Dole, because it's home to so many Republican voters—an extremely useful base for a statewide primary.
Mann himself sought this seat a decade ago but took a distant third in the 2010 primary with 21% of the vote. The winner that year, Tim Huelskamp, went on to lose renomination to Marshall in 2016.
• KS-02: State Treasurer Jake LaTurner brought freshman Rep. Steve Watkins' brief congressional career to a swift end with a 49-34 win in the Republican primary in Kansas' 2nd Congressional District, aided, of course, by Watkins' recent indictment on voter fraud charges. He'll now face Democrat Michelle De La Isla, the mayor of Topeka. While this district usually leans well to the right, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly carried it 51-41 in 2018, and Watkins almost fumbled it away, hanging on by less than a point. We rate this race Likely Republican.
For a full recap of Watkins' sordid and tumultuous tenure, please enjoy Jeff Singer's write-through.
• KS-03: Former Kansas GOP chair Amanda Adkins held off Down Syndrome advocate Sara Hart Weir 31-23 for the right to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids in Kansas's 3rd Congressional District. It'll be a very challenging race, though: This well-educated district in the Kansas City suburbs was once Republican turf but has moved sharply to the left in recent years, with Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly winning in a 56-37 blowout two years ago. The powerhouse Davids (a former MMA fighter) has also outraised Adkins by a huge margin. We rate this race Lean Democratic.
Michigan
• MI-03: Army veteran Peter Meijer crushed state Rep. Lynn Afendoulis 50-26 in the GOP primary to succeed Republican-turned-independent-turned-Libertarian Rep. Justin Amash, who is retiring after a tempestuous congressional career representing Michigan's 3rd Congressional District. He'll now face Democratic attorney Hillary Scholten in this Grand Rapids-based district that favored Donald Trump 52-42 four years ago. We rate this race Likely Republican.
• MI-06: State Rep. Jon Hoadley squeaked out a victory in the Democratic primary after an unexpectedly close battle with little-known teacher Jen Richardson, who had barely raised any money. Hoadley trailed much of the night but a late batch of ballots from his home turf of Kalamazoo put him over the top 52-48. Meanwhile, longtime Republican Rep. Fred Upton turned in an uninspiring 63-37 win over real estate broker Elena Oelke, who didn't report raising a penny during her entire campaign. Upton is the favorite in this southwestern Michigan district that went for Trump 51-43. We rate this race Likely Republican.
• MI-10: Wealthy businesswoman Lisa McClain self-funded her way to a 42-36 victory over state Rep. Shane Hernandez, a favorite of the anti-tax extremists at the Club for Growth, in the Republican primary for Michigan's 10th District. This dark red seat, based in the state's "Thumb," is open because GOP Rep. Paul Mitchell is retiring after just two terms. McClain will be a lock in November.
• MI-11: The Associated Press has not yet called the Republican primary to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, though one candidate currently enjoys a wide lead. With 80,000 votes in, attorney Eric Esshaki leads businesswoman Carmelita Greco 31-23; former Rep. Kerry Bentivolio, who won the GOP nomination 2012 in an utter fluke (remember Thad McCotter?) and then badly lost it two years later, is in third with 22%.
This suburban Detroit seat backed Donald Trump 50-45, but Republicans haven’t shown much interest yet in targeting Stevens. Daily Kos Elections rates the general election as Likely Democratic.
• MI-13: Freshman Rep. Rashida Tlaib defeated Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones in a 66-34 blowout in the Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th District, a huge turnaround from her narrow 31-30 win over Jones two years ago. Tlaib will be assured of winning a second term in the fall in this safely blue district in Detroit.
• MI State House: While the Associated Press has not yet called the Democratic primary, Karen Whitsett, a pro-Trump incumbent, currently holds a wide lead. With 10,000 votes in, Whitsett leads her nearest opponent, Detroit Action housing organizer Roslyn Ogburn, 45-30 in the four-way primary for House District 9. This seat, which is located in Detroit, backed Hillary Clinton 94-4.
Despite Donald Trump’s terrible performance with her constituents, Whitsett made a name for herself in April when she appeared at a White House and praised the GOP leader. Whitsett said that she had taken hydroxychloroquine, the anti-malarial drug that scientists have warned is ineffective and potentially deadly when used to treat the coronavirus, after she tested positive for COVID-19. Whitsett, though, credited Trump’s irresponsible promotion of hydroxychloroquine with saving her life, saying, "I do thank him for that.”
The 13th Congressional District Democratic Party soon announced plans to censure Whitsett for having “repeatedly and publicly praised the president's delayed and misguided COVID-19 response efforts in contradiction with the scientifically based and action-oriented response” and for “endangering the health, safety and welfare of her constituents, the city of Detroit and the state of Michigan.” Trump responded to the story with a tweet urging Whitsett to join the GOP, but she said she’d remain a Democrat.
Whitsett, did file a lawsuit accusing the party, which went ahead with its sanction, and Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer for allegedly infringing on her free speech rights, though she soon dropped it. Despite all of this, though, Whitsett appears to have prevailed with a plurality in a crowded primary.
• Oakland County, MI Executive: Appointed incumbent Dave Coulter, who last year became the first Democrat to hold this office since it was created in 1974, has won his Democratic primary for a full term by beating County Treasurer Andy Meisner 54-46. On the Republican side former state Sen. Mike Kowall defeated attorney Jeffrey Nutt 75-25.
While Republicans have long controlled the government in this large suburban Detroit county, Kowall may have a tough time retaking this office in the fall. Oakland County backed Hillary Clinton 51-43, and Donald Trump’s continued plunge in the suburbs is unlikely to help his party locally. Coulter has also outraised Kowall $446,000 to $39,000 through July 19.
• Wayne County, MI Prosecutor: Incumbent Kym Worthy defeated defense attorney Victoria Burton-Harris, who was challenging her from the left, by a 63-37 margin in the Democratic primary to serve as the top prosecutor in Michigan’s largest county. Worthy, who has held this post since 2004, faces no Republican opposition in the fall in this heavily Democratic county, which is home to Detroit and several nearby communities.
Missouri
• MO-01: In one of the biggest upsets of the year, nurse and activist Cori Bush unseated veteran Rep. Lacy Clay in Missouri's 1st Congressional District, winning the Democratic nomination 49-46. Bush is now all but guaranteed of victory in November in this safely blue seat in St. Louis, which the Clay family has represented continuously for half a century. For a full run-through of this monumental shocker, please read Jeff Singer's detailed recap.
• MO Ballot: Healthcare reformers won a major victory on Tuesday night with the passage of Amendment 2, which will expand Medicaid to 230,000 Missouri residents.
The measure passed 53-47 over widespread hostility from Republicans, who for years had refused to expand the program legislatively. Opponents had sued to try to stop the amendment from appearing on the ballot, but after those attempts failed, supporters accused Republican Gov. Mike Parson of moving the election from November to August in the hopes that lower summertime turnout would tank the effort.
Importantly, the initiative amends the state constitution, meaning that Republicans will not be able to roll back the expansion as they would have had organizers opted for a traditional ballot measure. As a result, all adults aged 19 to 65 with an income below $17,608 for an individual or $36,156 for a four-person household will now be eligible for health coverage under Medicaid. This also marks the fifth time that a red state has expanded Medicaid at the ballot box, following successful campaigns in Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Utah.
• St. Louis County, MO Executive: Appointed incumbent Sam Page won the Democratic primary for the final two years of disgraced former Executive Steve Stenger’s term by beating businessman Mark Mantovani, who narrowly lost to Stenger in 2018, 38-30. Page should have no trouble in the general election in this heavily Democratic county.
• St. Louis City, MO Circuit Attorney: Incumbent Kim Gardner defeated former assistant prosecutor Mary Pat Carl 61-39 to win the Democratic primary to serve as this heavily blue city’s chief prosecutor.
Gardner’s 2016 victory made her the first Black woman to hold this post, and she pledged to use it to pursue criminal justice reforms. During her time in office, Gardner has often clashed with police unions and the Republican-controlled state government. This year, Republican state senators introduced a bill that would transfer several of Gardner’s powers to the state attorney general, who happens to be Republican Eric Schmitt, but there has been no action since March.
Carl, who lost the 2016 primary to Gardner, said that she’d be a far less controversial and more effective prosecutor, but that argument didn’t resonate with the electorate on Tuesday.
Washington
• WA-Gov: Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee will face Loren Culp, the police chief of the small community of Republic, in November in this reliably Democratic state. Inslee took first place in the top-two primary with 52%, while Culp defeated former Bothell Mayor and fellow Republican Joshua Freed 17-7 for the second spot in the general election.
Inslee was already the heavy favorite to claim a third term, and he should have no trouble against Culp. Culp made a name for himself in 2018 when he announced that he wouldn't enforce Initiative 1639, a gun safety ballot measure that had just passed 59-41. Culp's stance drew a very favorable response from far-right rocker Ted Nugent, who posted a typo-ridden "Chief Loren Culp is an Anerican freedom warrior. Godbless the freedom warriors" message to his Facebook page.
Culp has continued to court the Trump base since then, and he’s shown no intention of changing now that he’s won the general election. On election night, Culp said he opposed Inslee’s measures to stop the coronavirus pandemic, including mask mandates. Daily Kos Elections rates this as Safe Democratic.
• WA-LG: Democratic Rep. Denny Heck has advanced to the November general election to succeed retiring Lt. Gov. Cyrus Habib, and it looks likely that his opponent will be state Sen. Marko Liias, a fellow Democrat who has Habib’s endorsement. With 1.2 million votes in, Heck leads the top-two primary with 28%, while Liias leads Republican Ann Sattler 17-12 for second. The AP has called the first general election spot for Heck, but the second slot is uncalled.
• WA-10: A trio of Democrats lead the nearest Republican in the top-two primary to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Denny Heck, though it remains to be seen which candidates will be on the November ballot. With 103,000 votes in, former Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland in first with 21%, while state Rep. Beth Doglio has a narrow 14-13 edge over former state Rep. Kristine Reeves for the second general election spot. Republican Rian Ingrim is just behind in fourth place with 11%; the AP has not yet made any calls here.
Any of these three Democratic women would make history. Either Reeves or Strickland would be the first African American to represent Washington in Congress, while Dogilo, who is bisexual, would be the state’s first LGBTQ member. Reeves would also be the first Latina to represent the state as a Democrat, while Strickland, whose father is Black and whose mother was born in Korea, would be the country's first Korean American congresswoman.