Welcome to the Pre-primary edition of OGGoldy’s Minnesota legislative elections. Minnesota campaign finance reports were released on 7/28 in advance of the August 11th primaries. Districts 1-28 are considered “Outstate” Minnesota, and are outside of the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area, while districts 29-67 are “Metro” districts in the Twin Cities area. More granularly, 29-58 are suburban and exurban seats, while 59-67 are urban districts in Minneapolis and St. Paul proper. The DFL currently holds a 75-59 majority in the chamber after flipping the chamber in the 2018 elections. The Senate is currently held by Republicans 35-32 after the 2016 elections, and flipping SD11 in a special election in early 2019. This will be the first edition that has all 201 seats mentioned. The 3 races which are included for partisan reference are 2012 Pres (Obama-Romney), 2016 Pres (Clinton-Trump) and 2018 Gov (Walz-Johnson). 2012 and had basically the same statewide margin, so the differences between those two races shows pretty indicatively the movement of the district over this decade.
The numbered districts can be found here (PDF Warning)
https://www.gis.leg.mn/pdf/leg2012/2012combo.pdf
District 29: Centered in some of the western exurbs around Buffalo in blood red Wright County. 2-term year incumbent Republican Senator Bruce Anderson is running against Democratic Some Dude Chris Brazelton. 10-year incumbent 29A Representative Joe McDonald (R) will easily defeat his 2018 Dem opponent Renee Cardarelle, 8-year incumbent 29B Marion O’Neil also face off against equally low-profile Dem Joe Rosh. Safe R all around
House 29A: Romney (R) 60-38, Trump (R) 63-29, Johnson (R) 60-36,
Rating: Safe R
House 29B Romney (R) 57-40, Trump (R) 61-31, Johnson (R) 57-39
Rating: Safe R
Senate 29 Rating: Safe R
District 30: Much like district 29, but even more Republican down ballot and centered about St. Michael/Albertville and Elk River. Senator Mary Kiffmeyer, a long-ago Minnesota Secretary state (from back when Republicans were capable of winning statewide) has found a nice home as a Minnesota State Senator and currently serves as President Pro Tempore. Kiffmeyer is safe for reelection against DFLer Dianne Nguyen. Incumbents Republican Paul Novotny (30A) won a special election in early 2020 to replace former representative Nick Zerwas who resigned in late 2019 due to major heart surgery at aged 38. Novotny is safe for winning his first full term against Dem Chad Hobot, the man he defeated 63-37 in the special election in February 2020. GOP incumbent Eric Lucero (30B) is going to beat Some Dude Brad Kovach in the B-side race.
House 30A Romney (R), 58-39 Trump (R), 61-30 Johnson (R) 58-38
Rating: Safe R
House 30B Romney (R) 62-36, Trump (R) 62-29, Johnson (R) 59-37
Rating: Safe R
Senate 30 Rating: Safe R
District 31: This is the part of Anoka County that makes Anoka County Republican. The rest of the county is actually pretty marginal and moving left, but this area is blood red exurbs. Michelle Benson (R) is running for a 4th term, and is going to easily dispatch her Dem challenger Kate Luthner. 31A is home to Speaker Kurt Daudt (R). Daudt seems to have solidified his hold on the GOP House after several cycles of musical chairs in both the House and Senate GOP leadership, and has found himself being the primary media antagonist against Walz. While Daudt has a token Republican primary challenger stemming from a bout of road rage (not kidding, nor is it Daudt’s only bout of vehicle related legal incidents). However, neither the man he rear ended, Beau Hullermann, nor his Dem challenger Brad Brown as an electoral threat to him. In 31B side, we have 2-term GOP incumbent Cal Bahr. Bahr faces off against his 2016 and 2018 opponent Sue Larson, who he has beaten twice by 2:1 margins; it will be 3 come November.
House 31A Romney (R) 62-35, Trump (R) 69-24, Johnson (R) 64-31
Rating: Safe R
House 31B Romney (R) 59-38, Trump (R) 63-29, Johnson (R) 61-35
Rating: Safe R
Senate 31 Rating: Safe R
District 32: This is Chisago and Isanti Counties, which up until fairly recently was winnable for Democrats, and as recently as 2010 had DFL representation in these seats. However those two counties became one of the Republican epicenters of the state over the last decade. In 2016 Senator Mark Koran unseated a lest ideologically pure GOP Senator in the primary and went on to win election that November. Koran is running for a second term against DFL Some Dude Josh Fike. Koran will be handily reelected in this conservative Senate seat. 32A, which is more or less Cambridge and unpopulated areas in Isanti and western Chisago Counties, we have GOP Representative Brian Johnson, a former police officer once again faces off against DFL challenger Renae Berg and will win easily, as he did 63-36 in 2018. 32B had a big kerfuffle in 2016, with the Republican incumbent not actually living in the district but whose name couldn’t be stricken from the ballot, so the November 2016 election was meaningless. That set up an early 2017 special election, which was surprisingly close with Republican Anne Neu winning 53- 47. Neu did improve her standing in the 2018 election, which she won 58-42. Neu technically has a primary, but Joelle Walmsley is not running an actual campaign, and thus the primary is a formality. Her DFL opponent Katie is not campaigning much above that level either, so Neu is safe for reelection.
House 32A Romney (R) 57-41 Trump (R) 64-28 Johnson (R) 59-36
Rating: Safe R
House 32B Romney (R) 55-43 Trump (R) 61-31 Johnson (R) 56-40
Rating: Safe R
Senate 32A: Safe R
District 33: Money Money Money Money. This includes the wealthiest areas of the entire state around Lake Minnetonka, plus exurbs not around the lake. The exceedingly wealthy in Minnesota have leaned Republican, though are clearly reacting rather intensely against Trump and the GOP. This district actually saw more than its fair share of insurgent Tea Party type candidates unseating incumbents in 2012 in their primaries, though that seems like a lifetime ago politically. Senator Dave Osmek (R) is the incumbent here. Democrats appear to be in the midst of a shell game for nominees here. After a bit of a shell game and candidate searching, the DFL recruited, endorsed, and cleared the field for Gretchen Piper, a political newcomer. Piper does not have a pre-2020 political resume, but the small business owner has lit the fundraising world on fire, and has outraised Osmek 10:1, and has waived public subsidy unlikely Osmek. What that means in practice is that Osmek cannot spend more than $102,800 this cycle as he is receiving matching state money per his fundraising. Meanwhile Piper is one of only a handful of candidates foregoing the spending limit and is fundraising balls to the walls, and has already surpassed the $102,800 threshold before the primary. This race, perhaps unsurprisingly, is shaping up to be the single most expensive state legislature race this year, and may exceed some congressional races in the state. Given the otherworldly fundraising prowess shown by Piper, this race is getting moved leftward into the Lean R category. Jerry Hertaus (R) in 33A represents all of the conservative sparsely populated areas on the western edge of Hennepin County. Hertaus will be facing against Maple Plain City Councilwoman Caitlin Cahill. While this area is moving left, it is still quite Republican and Herthaus is likely to win reelection, although Cahill appears to be running a solid campaign and has outraised Herthaus and could pull off an upset if the climate is hard left come November. In the other half of the district, freshman Dem Rep Kelly Morrison is coming off of her win over Republican bomb-thrower Cindy Pugh (R) in the latter’s reelection bid. This remains ancestrally Republican turf though, and Morrison is not going to be coasting on easy street to a 2nd term. Minnetonka Beach (not to be confused with Minnetonka) City Councilman Andrew Myers snagged the GOP endorsement for this seat, though Cindy Pugh hard-right acolyte Marianne Stebbins is going through to the primary against Myers, as she sees Myers as insufficiently pure, ideologically. Myers is the stronger GE candidate and is a favorite in the primary, though neither Myers nor Stebbins are in the same league fundraising-wise. It’s clear that Morrison is a small but clear favorite in November in this rapidly bluing affluent suburban seat.
House 33A: Romney (R) 62-36, Trump (R) 54-37, Johnson (R) 57-41
Rating: Likely R
House 33B: Romney (R) 55-44, Clinton (D) 45.5-45.0, Walz (D) 48.61-48.37
Rating: Lean D
Senate 33 Rating: Lean R
District 34: Maple Grove, with Rogers thrown into 34A. In terms of raw vote totals, Maple Grove (and especially Rogers) is one of the places Republicans used to to run up the margins to be competitive statewide, though the political winds have shifted hard left as Maple Grove now nets votes for Dems, not the GOP. Senator Warren Limmer (R) has held his seat since first being elected in 1994, and has shown to be quite a strong electoral force, even has his district has changed under him. He likely faces off against his 2016 opponent Bonnie Westlin. Westlin though has a primary of her own against political neophyte Aarica Coleman, who is challenging the endorsed Westlin from the left. Limmer won by 20 last time, and while that margin may narrow quite a bit reflecting the changes in Maple Grove since 2016, it almost certainly isn’t going to make a difference in terms of the outcome. Though like basically all Dem challengers in even quasi-marginal seats, Westlin has outraised Limmer significantly. In the more conservative half of the district, Freshman GOP Rep Kristin Robbins won her first electoral attempt in 2018 in this seat by 13. This year she is facing off against a different Navy veteran: Brian Raines. Robbins will win, as while Maple Grove is moving left, Dayton hasn’t been. Freshman Kristen Bahner (D) is the first Democrat to represent Maple Grove in the legislature in living memory, and did so by defeating the man she had lost by 10 to in 2016. Not a rubber match in her future though, as Republicans have settled on local Homemaker Dori Trossen this cycle. Pretty telling and bizarre Republicans couldn’t find anyone above Some Dude level in a seat that has been as Republican for so many decades, but as Minnesota native Bob Dylan says “The times, they are a changin’”
House 34A: Romney (R) 58-40, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 52-45
Rating: Safe R
House 34B: Romney (R) 51-47, Clinton (D) 47-43, Walz (D) 52-44
Rating: Likely D
Senate 34 Rating: Likely R
District 35: This is the district straddling the Mississippi River in central Anoka County including Anoka and Coon Rapids. It has long had a quirky libertarian streak to it, and was the strongest area for Jesse Ventura in 98. Libertarianish Republican Jim Abeler is the State Senator here, and is a Paulite (I know, I know, some Paulites claim that it was a family decision to back Paul, but the fact of the matter is he did, and does have that streak in him) and fits the district pretty well. In spite of this being a light red district in suburbia, the DFL isn’t highly contesting the race, and David Nelson is not a serious candidate. Abeler is safe this cycle. The A side of 35 is home to freshman John Heinrich (R) who is running against a relatively weak Dem challenger Mike Erickson, a local retiree. Heinrich isn’t considered an especially strong incumbent, but he is safe for reelection this cycle. On the more Republican side, and Peggy Scott (R-Andover) is safe for her 7th term in the House against engineer Jason Ruffalo.
House 35A Romney (R) 52-45, Trump (R) 53-37, Johnson (R) 50-44
Rating: Safe R
House 35B: Romney (R) 57-41, Trump (R) 55-36, Johnson (R) 53-43
Rating: Safe R
Senate 35 Rating: Safe R
District 36: This is a center-left suburban district primarily made up of Champlain and Brooklyn Park. 2-term Senator John Hoffman (DFL) is running for reelection against a GOP Some Dude Karen Attia, who is apparently not campaigning or raising any significant money, giving Hoffman a free pass. This stands in stark contrast as Republicans went HARD after Hoffman in 2016 but came up short 51-49. Given there is not “up” in candidate strength from Brookyln Park mayor Jeffrey Lunde (Hoffman’s 2016 opponent), Republicans are punting here entirely. Democrat Zach Stephenson won his first term in 36A after Republican Mark Uglem retired and the seat flipped hands. Republicans are running their 2018 candidate Bill Maresh who is FAR too conservative for this seat, underperformed the rest of the GOP ticket last cycle and is going to do the same again this year. The MNGOP has shut off the money spigot, and Maresh’s campaign is nearly penniless. 8-term incumbent DFL Representative Melissa Hortman is a perennial target of the GOP, but she seems to be remarkably consistent in her reelection victories against generally strong GOP opposition. This cycle, Hortmann has been promoted to Speaker by the DFL caucus after serving for 2 years as Minority Leader. After 2016 failed to unseat her, the MNGOP has given up on unseating her, and she does not face a serious candidate for the 2nd cycle in a row, and only faces token GOP opponent Scott Simmons.
House 36A: Romney (R) 49-48, Trump (R) 47-44, Walz (D) 50-46
Rating: Safe D
House 36B Obama (D) 53-45, Clinton (D) 52-40, Walz (D) 57-39
Rating: Safe D
Senate 36 Rating: Safe D
District 37: Blaine and Spring Lake Park, with a sliver of Coon Rapids. Blaine leans ever so slightly Republican now, but it used to be a DFL stronghold and is close to 50/50, perhaps left leaning in the Era of Trump, while Spring Lake Park and Coon Rapids are center-left suburbs that swing violently with the tide. This district was also one of the strongest Independence areas in the entire state, and was integral to Jesse Ventura’s victory in 1998, much like the adjacent district 35. Jerry Newton (DFL), an 83-year-old Freshman State Senator, is running for a second term in 2020. Against his 2016 opponent Brad Stanford. Newton beat Stanford by 3 that cycle, though that was more or less a fair fight in terms of campaign financing and a balanced electorate. This cycle Stanford has no money, and the environment is a lot more D leaning than it was 4 years ago. Newton could theoretically have something bad happen given his age, so this race is ever so slightly not “Safe D” as of August 2020. 37A: The DFL won one of the narrowest elections in the state in 2016 when Erin Koegel edged out Republican Anthony Wilder. Koegel won the rematch by a much more impressive 12 point margin in 2018. The GOP appears to be punting on this district as only a last second filer from Some Dude Ken Wending. Wending is not a serious candidate and will lose by more than 12 points. 37B GOP incumbent Nolan West was forced to resign from his position as a GOP staffer in 2016 because of a number of super racist Facebook posts, including “It’s lynching time” in response to Obama winning election, even with being cut loose by the GOP and becoming a social leper, he managed to win a very narrow win that cycle and even more inexplicably won reelection by 154 votes in 2018 in spite of maintaining his status as a social pariah. For some reason, the DFL has decided to go with the man West edged out in 2018: Amir Malik for a rematch. Given the inexplicableness of the whole I will leave this as Toss-up, but West really is a S*** human and needs to go away.
House 37A, Obama (D) 53-44, Trump (R) 46-45, Walz (D) 53-42
Rating: Likely D
House 37B, Romney (R) 49-48, Trump (R) 48-43, Walz (D) 50-46
Rating: Toss-up
Senate 37 Rating: Likely D
District 38: This district includes the once dark-red exurbs and in the NW metro from Lino Lakes to Hugo, with 38B having some affluent purple/bluish suburbs thrown in towards the more populous southern edge of the district. Senator Roger Chamberlain (R) is running for his 3rd term as the area’s senator. He should be in good shape against accountant Justin Stofferahn, though Stofferahn has outraised Chamberlain and is running a real campaign. 32-year GOP incumbent Linda Runbeck decided to retire earlier this year, which has set off quite the rush to replace her. There is a 3-way race on the GOP side for the August 11th primary, with no candidate having the endorsement. Officially, Kelly Gunderson was one of those 3 candidates, but has dissolved her candidate after the filing deadline, so will be on the ballot but will be a distant 3rd to Doug Malsom and Donald Raleigh. Raleigh is clearly the stronger GOP candidate, being a Lt. Colonel in the Air National Guard, and currently serves on the Blain Park Commission. Doug Malsom is much more of the True Believer conservative purist and has a strong grassroots effort to get him through the primary. Raleigh appears to be a favorite in the primary, but it is contested. Facing the winner of the primary will be Dem lawyer Kris Fredrick. Fredrich was considered an also-ran before Runbeck dropped out of the race early this summer, but has since picked up his fundraising massively, and has gotten an upgraded campaign team. The race will move to toss-up against Malsom, but would be Likely R with Raleigh, so the rating is getting left at Lean R for now. Freshman DFL Rep Ami Wazlawik is running again, and while her 2018 opponent Patti Anderson (former State Auditor Pat Awada) floated a rematch and pulled back before the filing deadline. Wazlawik beat Anderson 51-49 in a bit of an upset in 2018, leaving Republicans stuck with 21-year-old Hamline University student Elliott Engen. Wazlawik is obviously breathing several sighs of relief in her several-orders-of-magnitude-lesser opponent in November.
House 38A: Romney (R) 54-44, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 50-47
Rating: Lean R
House 38A: Romney (R) 52-46, Trump (R) 46-45, Walz (D) 51-46
Rating: Likely D
Senate 38 Rating: Likely R
District 39: Eastern Washington County. The Southern half (39B) is dominated by purple Stillwater, with the northern half (39A) of the district dominated by red Forest Lake. This is Senator Karin Housley’s (R) district. Housley is running for reelection after losing to Senator Tina Smith in 2018. Democrats had a number of candidates contest the caucuses/convention, but ultimately Josiah Hill won the endorsement and is quite likely to be Housley’s opponent in November. Hill is a local teacher who is new to the politics game. Housley starts off as a slight favorite as the incumbent and her high name rec from her 2018 US Senate run. It should be noted that Housley only won her home Senate district in her 2018 race by 1013 votes total. In 39A, the Forest Lake district, 7-term GOP Representative Bob Dettmer is running for reelection. Dettmer over performs pretty much every other Republican in the area. Dems are running their 2018 candidate, lawyer Ann Mozey. Dettmer won by 11 last time, and that should be a good baseline for where the 2020 version will pan out. In The Stillwater-based 39B, Freshman DFL Rep Shelly Christensen won her first election by unseating then-incumbent GOP Rep Kathy Lohmer by 137 votes. Lohmer is not seeking a rematch, and Republicans have tapped realtor Joe Garofalo, another political newbie. It is a little surprising Republicans couldn’t muster a more prominent challenger to Christensen after such a narrow race last time.
House 39A: Romney (R) 53-45, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 50-46
Rating: Safe R
House 39B: Romney (R) 50-48, Trump 45.8-45.5, Walz (D) 51-46
Rating: Likely D
Senate 39 Rating: Lean R
District 40: Brooklyn Park. Other than Minneapolis, St. Paul, and Duluth, Brooklyn Park gives the DFL the highest net vote total out of any city in the state. Senator Chris Eaton (DFL) won her seat in the Senate in a 2011 special election and has been safe for reelection ever since. Eaton faces her 2016 opponent Robert Marvin (who she beat 68-32), and will beat him by a similar margin this cycle. 40A incumbent Mike Nelson actually drew and opponent this year, which he does about half the time cycle. He faces Republican David True for the second cycle in a row after beating True 73-27 last time, so expect a blowout. 26-year old Freshman DFL Representative Samantha Vang, a member of the local Hmong community, is also safe in her reelection against Republican Charlotte Smith and LMN candidate Mary O’Connor.
House 40A: Obama (D) 70-29, Clinton (D) 67-26, Walz (D) 69-25
Rating: Safe D
House 40B Obama (D), 68-29 Clinton (D), 65-27 Walz (D) 68-26
Rating: Safe D
Senate 40 Rating: Safe D
District 41: Columbia Heights, Fridley, and New Brighton. These are some quite blue inner ring suburbs you’re going to find. I graduated high school in this district after relocating to the area when I was younger. Senator Carolyn Laine (D) is retiring after her second stint in St. Paul began just 4 years ago. 41A DFL Rep Carol Bernardy is safe for reelection in her own second stint in St Paul. DFL 41B Rep Mary Kunesh-Podein is going to be getting a promotion to the Senate. A clown-car of Democrats went for 41B, with the endorsement ultimately going to lawyer Sandra Feist. All of the DFLers in this area are safe, just a matter of musical chairs
House 41A: Obama (D) 59-38Clinton (D) 55-35, Walz (D) 62-34
Rating: Safe D
House 41B: Obama (D) 62-35, Clinton (D) 61-29, Walz (D) 68-28
Rating: Safe D
Senate 41 Rating: Safe D
District 42: This is northern Ramsey County: marginally area in the north (~42A), and strong DFL area is the south (~42B). Senator Jason Isaacson (D) is running for his first reelection against Republican teacher Ben Schwanke. Schwanke was last seen in the 2012 Special election to SD59 (in Minneapolis, not overlapping with this seat at all), losing handily to Kari Dziedzic; Isaacson is safe. Freshman DFL Rep Kelly Moller is running against businesswoman Candy Sina. Sina has raised basically no money this year and has no campaign website: Safe D. In 42B, Democrats have incumbent Jamie Becker-Finn going for a 3rd term, and Republicans have gone with retired healthcare executive Sue Finney. Finney, like Sina, is not raising any money for her campaign and is not a serious candidate.
House 42A: Obama (D) 51-46, Clinton (D) 52-38, Walz (D) 58-39
Rating: Safe D
House 42B: Obama (D) 57-41, Clinton (D) 55-35, Walz (D) 61-36
Rating: Safe D
Senate Seat 42: Safe D
District 43: This is a district made up of inner and second ring suburbs to the north and east of St. Paul. It is a lot like district next door district 42, insomuch as 43A in the north is DFL leaning, and 43B is strongly DFL . DFL Senator 43 Charles Wiger has held this seat since 1996. Wiger is a mainstream Democrat, and like many 60-something mainstream Democrats in bluing districts across the country in 2020, he faces a primary from the left.; however his primary opponent, Natasha Lapcinski, is not really catching fire in terms of campaign, and Wiger is a prohibitive favorite in the August 11th primary. Waiting for Wiger (or Lapcinski) is 2016 GOP candidate Bob Zick. Wiger defeated Zick 56-37 in 2016, and it Zick isn’t going to do better this year. In 43A, Peter Fischer (DFL-43A) is running for his 6th term against Republican challenger Paul Babin. Babin is not a serious candidate, and Fischer is safe. 43B, 8-term incumbent DFL representative Leon Lillie is running for reelection against GOP sacrificial lamb Jordan Herzog.
House 43A: Obama (D) 56-42, Clinton (D) 53-38, Walz (D) 59-38
Rating: Safe D
House 43B Obama (D) 57-40, Clinton (D) 52-39, Walz (D) 62-38
Rating: Safe D
Senate 43 Rating: Safe D
District 44: Rich suburbs but not really exurbs. Plymouth used to be a Republican stronghold, but has moved further and faster left than any other large city in the state. While Minnetonka is by now a pretty DFL city (something unthinkable a generation ago), and moving further that direction steadily after formerly resembling Plymouth politically. This seat has fully realigned from R to D with one exception: the really fluky Republican pickup of SD44 in 2016 by Paul Anderson. Anderson himself saw the writing on the wall and GTFO instead of facing certain defeat. Republicans landed lawyer / banking executive Gregory Pulles as a last minute replacement candidate. Pulles appears to be running as a center-left Republican, campaigning on reducing carbon footprint, environmentalism, closing education gaps in minority groups etc. He seems like a solid candidate and has fundraised respectably well, but this seat is simply too far gone for Republicans to hold. Democrats have endorsed engineer / professor Ann Johnson-Stewart, but Johnson Stewart garnered a primary against Zina Alston-Fizer. Alston-Fizer is running a real campaign, but Johnson-Stewart is crushing her in endorsements, money, and infrastructure. Once through the primary, Johnson-Stewart will be the next Senator in this seat. Both DFL Reps are freshmen, but both are safe for reelection. 44A Rep Ginny Klevorn has garnered former retired Air Force Lt. Colonel Perry Nouis as an opponent. Nouis at least as a campaign website, which puts him a tier above a lot of challengers in hopeless districts, but Klevorn is safe for reelection regardless. 44B Rep Patty Acomb faces off against her 2018 opponent Gary Porter. Porter Conversely, does not have a website, and will lose by the same 63-37 margin from 2018.
House 44A: Romney (R) 51-48, Clinton (D) 53-38, Walz (D) 55-42
Rating: Safe D
House 44B: Obama (D) 54-44, Clinton (D) 57-35, Walz (D) 60-37
Rating: Safe D
Senate 44 Rating: Likely D (flip)
District 45: Crystal, New Hope and half of Golden Valley. My home! I bought a house in Golden Valley in 2015, and have lived here ever since. Crystal and New Hope are more working-class inner suburbs, while Golden Valley is more middle class to upper middle class and home to a little-known company called General Mills, as well as some nearly-as-unknown companies UnitedHealth and Buffalo Wild Wings. Ann Rest (DFL) has held her Senate seat since 2000, and is not at risk of losing it now against Some Dude Republican Roxana Bruins and LMN candidate Andy Schuler. Lyndon Carlson has represented 45A here without campaigning every biennium since 1972. Carlson is 78 years old, is the Dean of the House and is hanging it up this year. There is a primary to replace him, with lawyer Cedrick Frazier getting the official DFL endorsement against non-profit executive Daonna Depoister. Depoister is raising money, but not as much as Frazier, leaving Frazier as the prohibitive favorite in the primary. Regardless of the primary’s outcome, this seat is safely in the blue column in November against Republican restaurateur Jesse Pfliger. In 45B, Mike Freiberg (DFL-Golden Valley) won his seat for life in 2012. I actually live just down the street from him and he is the only politician I keep a lawn sign for. He faces Republican Ken Fitzgerald in November. 45B is even bluer than 45A, so the race is effectively moot.
House 45A Obama (D) 59-39, Clinton (D) 58-33, Walz (D) 62-33
Rating: Safe D
House 45B Obama (D) 63-34 Clinton (D) 63-27 Walz (D) 69-28
Rating: Safe D
Senate 45 Rating: Safe D
District 46: St. Louis Park, Hopkins and half of Golden Valley. St. Louis Park has a large liberal Jewish population (including the Franken family), and Hopkins is an aging center-left upper-middle-class suburb, similar to Golden Valley to the north. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul proper, this is probably the most liberal district in the state, though certainly not the most Democratic, electorally speaking. Senator Ron Latz has represented this seat since 2006 and faces only token GOP candidate Bryan Bjornson. 46A is home to Representative Ryan Winkler, who represented this seat from 2004-2014 when he left to go to Europe for a few years. Now-LG Peggy Flanagan held the seat thereafter for 2 terms before running and winning LG in 2018. That cycle Winkler, now home from a few years overseas, won his old seat back, and is now going for a 7th non-consecutive term, and will win handily against 2016 GOP nominee against Flanagan Anne Taylor, where Flanagan won 64-36. In incumbent Secretary of State Steve Simon’s old seat 45B, DFL Representative Cheryl Youakim is running against Republican Mellissa Moore in a 2018 rematch, which she will win for her 4th term by a similar 74-25 margin.
House 46A: Obama (D) 64-34, Clinton (D) 66-26, Walz (D) 70-26
Rating: Safe D
House 46B: Obama (D) 66-32, Clinton (D) 68-23, Walz (D) 73-24
Rating: Safe D
Senate 46 Rating: Safe D
District 47: (Does anyone else get annoyed having to jump back and forth across the metro to follow the numbers numerically???) Republican heavy area in the SW exurbs. The DFL has historically had exactly zero presence here, but like much of suburbia, the leftward trends are starting to make their presence known even this far out. SD47 GOP incumbent Scott Jensen, a Freshman legislator, is retiring after 4 years in office. Jensen made some rather splashy headlines as basically the only doctor around taking up the Trump mantle in April that COVID-19 is merely the common cold, and started the rumors that COVID 19 death counts were being fabricated entirely (he later backtracked on this, kind of). Jensen, if he can overcome his reputation as a COVID denier, is seen as ginning up for a run against Walz for Governor in 2022. The race to succeed Jensen brought out a bunch of candidates, and both parties have primaries on August 11th for the right to be on the November ballot. The DFL has endorsed 28-year-old DFL staffer Addie Miller, though she has a minor primary challenge against 2018 Chanhassen mayoral candidate Bala Chintaginjala, who is not a serious candidate. Victoria mayor Tom Funk and Chanhassen City Councilwoman Julia Coleman fought to a draw at the Carver County GOP Convention and are now going full speed ahead into the August 11th primary. This race is quite contentious with the battlelines being drawn in Chanhassen vs Victoria lines more than ideological lines, though counter to general GOP policy, a lot of local politicos are endorsing Coleman, including Jensen. I honestly don’t know how to handicap this primary, but the winner will be a favorite to win in November, as while it is moving left, it started out as a dark red seat and has not moved into purple territory as of 2020. In the more conservative 47A half, GOP incumbent Jim Nash (R-47A) faces token Democratic opponent Arlan Brinkmeier, who is not running a serious campaign. Freshman GOP Rep Greg Boe (R-47B) had an remarkably narrow initial victory in 2018, edging out DFLer Donzel Leggett by 116 votes. Leggett is not running again, and the DFL has backed psychologist Dan Kessler. Kessler doesn’t have the fundraising chops that Leggett did, but has still managed to double Boe’s fundraising haul, and Chaska is moving left hard and fast in the age of Trump. Romney won the seat by 14, Trump won it by 3, and Johnson/Walz were within 40 votes of eachother last cycle, so this is as marginal of a seat as you will find in the state at this point, which was unthinkable even a decade ago.
House 47A Romney (R) 63-35, Trump (R) 60-31, Johnson (R) 59-38
Rating: Safe R
House 47B Romney (R) 56-42, Trump (R) 47-44, Johnson (R) 48.46-48.28
Rating: Toss-up
Senate 47 Rating: Likely R
District 48: The southern part of this district is formerly Republican Eden Prairie (This is Erik Paulsen home), but the northern part is clearly center-left portions of Minnetonka that aren’t in 44B, as well as a slice of Eden Prairie. The senate sees Freshman DFLer Steve Cwodzinski running for reelection for the first time. Republicans have an interesting candidate running against him in Chinese immigrant and school counselor Jeff Jiang. This area has just changed too much for Republicans to be in contention here, though Jiang appears to be quite the strong candidate and has fundraised better than even most incumbent Senators, even so much as to keep this seat from being rated as Safe D as of August. For the cycles 2012-2016, HD48A had been home to some of the closest elections in the chamber, with Dems going 3-0 in that time. However by 2018 it was no longer close, with Laurie Pryor winning by 19, with no signs of the trends from right to left changing or slowing here, Pryor is safe for reelection against GOP chiropractor Eric Wessels. Democrat Carlie Kotyza-Witthuhn defeated former GOP Rep Jennifer Loon in this Eden Prairie based seat in a bit of an upset, but the tide of change comes with unseating some even long-standing overperformers every once in a while. Republicans are not letting this seat fall off their radar entirely though, as they recruited Harvard educated Eden Prairie School Board Director Holly Link. Link is probably as good of a GOP recruit as could have hoped for, short of a Loon rematch. Link has not exactly been super great at fundraising, nor has been garnering quite as much interest as one might expect for a candidate of that caliber in a district against a freshman. But there appears to not be enough money or interest in a State House seat when all GOP resources are being funneled exclusively into a handful of Senate seats, as the party is fully triaging the House elections in hopes of retaining a seat at the redistricting table in 2021.
House 48A: Obama (D) 52-46, Clinton (D) 55-36, Walz (D) 59-38
Rating: Likely D
House B: Romney (R) 52-47, Clinton (D) 52-39, Walz (D) 55-42
Rating: Likely D
Senate 48 Rating: Likely D
District 49: Edina and west Bloomington. The western part of Bloomington is marginally blue, while the eastern part is quite blue. Edina used to be an affluent Republican stronghold, but has quickly become politically liberal while maintaining its stereotypically affluent status. 2-term Senator Melisa Lopez Franzen, seen as a political up and comer who will run for higher office some day, will face the winner of the GOP primary between two Some Dude GOPers Jenny Rhoades and Julie Dupre. Given the fact Dupre has raised pennies, but Rhoades has raised $0.00, the safe bet is Dupre in the primary, only to lose handily in November. To exemplify how hard and fast Edina has moved left, in 2018, 49A was represented by a Republican. He lost as incumbent by 17 that November, and the GOP is not even fielding a candidate against the freshman DFLer who defeated him: Heather Edelson. To 49B, once about as politically even of a district as you would find anywhere, has moved left cycle over cycle, and is now firmly in the blue column, and getting more so every year. Freshman DFLer Steve Elkins is running for a second term against a last-minute GOP filer Joe Thalman. Elkins is quite politically experienced, having served on the Bloomington City Council and the Met Council (and immensely powerful regulatory body) before running for 49B last cycle. Elkins is safe.
House 49A Obama (D) 52-47, Clinton (D) 59-32, Walz (D) 61-37
Rating: Safe D
House 49B Obama (D) 52-46, Clinton (D) 56-36, Walz (D) 62-38
Rating: Safe D
Senate 49 Rating: Safe D
District 50: Eastern Bloomington and Richfield. I actually lived in this district for a time before I bought my house in Golden Valley. Senator Melissa Halverson Wiklund (DFL) is running for a 3rd term against GOP Some Dude Dean WM Mumbleau. Halverson Wiklund is safe. DFLer Freshman Michael Howard (DFL-50A) easily won his first election after being talked into being State Rep instead of Richfield Mayor, and is safe for a second term in November. 50B was the sight of a massive turnover in 2016, and is probably easier to describe chronologically. For the first time in 4 elections (1 special, 2 generals) this race WON’T be between DFLer Andrew Carlson, and GOPer Chad Anderson. Anderson got sick of the losing streak in the blue and bluing district and stepped aside for 2020, allowing Republican Gary Heyer to carry the red banner. Heyer isn’t really raising money, but his entire campaign website that looks like a Trump Twitter storm that includes bolded and large typeface gems such as “Andrew Carlson has abdicated his authority and responsibility to represent the voters of Bloomington 50B to Governor Walz” mid-paragraph. This is a district Walz carried by over 25 points. So…. Good luck with that, I guess?
House 50A Obama (D) 64-34, Clinton (D) 61-30, Walz (D) 67-29
Sating: Safe D
House 50B Obama (D) 57-41, Clinton (D) 55-36, Walz (D) 61-35
Rating: Safe D
Senate 50 Rating: Safe D
District 51: Burnsville and Eagan. This was really swingy territory in the south metro. It was swept by Republicans in 2010, and swept by Democrats in 2012, yet the leftward trend of the area meant Dems maintained the Senate and both of the House since then. In The senate, incumbent DFLer Jim Carlson is against a decent recruit here in retired National Guard Lt. Colonel Douglas Willetts, but this seat is too blue for him to win or get close to winning. SD51 is slightly to the left of HD51B, so Carlson is safe for reelection. Sandra Masin has held 51A uninterrupted since 2012, and all but 1 term since 2006. Masin has a formality primary against Justin Clark and a formality GE against Patrick Zurick; Ultimately Masin will win regardless. Laurie Halverson is retiring after 8 years in the legislature. Democrats have rallied around and endorsed Star Tribune business columnist Liz Reyer, but long-time Eagan mayor Mike Maguire is staging a strong campaign against the endorsee Reyer. This primary is highly contested and the results are going to be close, but Maguire seems to have the edge given his longstanding political history in the area. Regardless of the outcome, the winner will face off against Republican Fern Smith. This is rather unique as far as suburban races go, as the DFL candidate will be either a middle aged white man, a middle aged white woman, and the GOP candidate is an African American woman. Smith’s campaign website does its damnedest to avoid having any policy positions listed, which makes sense given the political leaning of the district. Still, Smith has not raised much money and is a large underdog in November, but given the uncertainty of a contested primary, this is getting left at Likely D for now.
House 51A: Obama (D) 55-42, Clinton (D) 54-37, Walz (D) 59-36
Rating: Safe D
House 51B: Obama (D) 51-47, Clinton (D) 53-37, Walz (D) 55-42
Likely D
Senate 51 Rating: Safe D
District 52: This is the liberal parts of northern Dakota County that was added to MN-2 in the 2012 redistricting, moving the needle leftward on its PVI. This senate seat is held by freshman DFLer Matt Klein who won in 2016 after 30-year incumbent James Metzen (DFL) passed away that year. Republicans recruited pilot Thomas Settell against Klein, but hasn’t raised much money or attention. Rick Hansen is the DFL incumbent in 52A, and has been since 2004. Republicans nominated Mariah de la Paz, but it should be expected that Hanson will win by his customary 20-25 point margins. Republicans briefly picked up HD52B for 1 term in 2016 when the long term moderate incumbent Joe Atkins retired and the much more liberal Mary T’Kach ran against Republican Regina Barr. But Barr’s tenure was short lived as Ruth Richardson, a more mainstream Dem ran and defeated her in 2018 by a surprisingly large 8-point margin. Richardson is running again this cycle. Republicans are running local retiree Cynthia Lonnquist against Richardson. This seat hasn’t garnered much attention or dollars, especially on the Republican side, as the House has been triaged to focus on the Senate.
House 52A: Obama (D) 59-39, Clinton (D) 56-35, Walz (D) 61-34
Rating: Safe D
House 52B: Obama (D) 53-45, Clinton (D) 49-42, Walz (D) 55-41
Rating: Likely D
Senate 52 Rating: Safe D
District 53: Western Woodbury and Maplewood and Oakdale. Maplewood is a very awkwardly shaped city, and the part of it in district 53 is the SW tendril. Maplewood is quite DFL, and Woodbury is slightly less so, with Oakdale being recently ever-so-slightly Republican leaning. DFL Senator Susan Kent won with a narrow 1% victory in 2016, after having a similarly narrow 2012 initial victory. Kent has garnered a BLM-flavored primary challenger Marquita Stephens, though Stephens doesn’t even have a website, and her fundraising dollars don’t appear to being put to use, so the incumbent is going to be winning her primary on August 11th. Republicans see one of their few possible pickup opportunities against her, and are running former Woodbury Mayor and 2018 gubernatorial also-ran candidate Mary Giuliani Stephens. Giuliani-Stevens is a legitimate candidate, and Kent is taking this seriously. Still, this area has shifted quite a bit to the left leaving it blue instead of mostly purple a decade ago; like many of the suburbs, 53 is moving leftward a little more each year. In 53A, freshman DFL Rep Tou Xiong, a member of the Minnesota Hmong community and has drawn only a token challenger from local GOP engineer William Johnston, whose campaign seems to have been solely creating a black-and-white 1-page MS Word website and nothing more; Xiong is safe. Xiong is a name to watch in future years for a leadership role. Octogenarian freshman Steve Sandell won his seat in a mild upset in 2018, and is running for reelection. Republicans wanting to win this seat back are going with 2001 Mrs. Minnesota and self-help business owner Kelly Jahner-Bryne. It appears as though Jahner-Bryne’s campaign website is a subsidiary of her self-help business website, which leads me to believe this is all at least in part a way to get her name out there for her business and not about running a campaign. Still, Sandell is old, and a freshman, so this is at most a Lean D seat until further information comes available.
House 53A: Obama (D) 56-41, Clinton (D) 54-37, Walz (D) 60-36
Rating: Safe D
House 53B: Romney (R) 52-47, Clinton (D) 50-42: Walz (D) 54-44
Rating: Lean D
Senate 53 Rating: Lean D
District 54: This is another one of the districts where the House seats are very different from one another, with 54A being far more Democratic than 54B. This seat saw 3 open races in 2016, with Republicans winning both House seat while the Dems winning the Senate seat (go figure). Incumbent Senator Karla Bigham is running for reelection after first winning her seat in a special election in 2018. Running for the GOP is 2016 nominee Leilani Holmstadt (she lost to former Senator Dan Schoen 53-47 that year). Bigham is the favorite here as the incumbent against a former unsuccessful candidate for this same seat, in a suburban area moving left who has not raised much money at all. 54A the more DFL friendly of the seats, and is centered around eastern Cottage Grove, and South St Paul (a suburb, not a neighborhood of St. Paul proper). Incumbent Anne Claflin (D-54B) won her first term in 2018 51-49. The man she unseating, former 1-term GOP Rep Keith Frank is back for Round 2. Surprisingly, Franke hasn’t been raising much money and doesn’t appear to be actively campaigning, so this race is getting moved to Likely D. 54B is swingy, and carried very narrowly by Obama, and then by Trump. GOP Rep Tony Jurgens is running for reelection against Hastings School Board member Kelsey Waits. Jurgens narrowly defeated a comparable challenger in 2018, but appears to not be campaigning or raising money this cycle, with Waits outraising him 20:1 and has a 3:1 COH advantage. I can’t for the life of me figure out WHY Jurgens is being this lazy, and this race is getting moved to Toss-up from Lean R earlier.
House 54A: Obama (D) 56-42, Clinton (D) 50-42, Walz (D) 55-40
Rating: Likely D
House 54B: Obama (D) 49.15-48.57, Trump (R) 48-42, Walz (D) 50-46
Rating: Toss-up
Senate 54 Rating: Likely D
District 55: Scott County. This is mostly Republican territory, but there are some purple dots starting to show up in places like Shakopee (which is is almost all of of 55A). The Senate district is boring with Eric Pratt (R) going to win over his Dem challenger, Somali-American disability case manager Sahra Odowa. Odowa appears to have a decent campaign infrastructure in place and is raising the dough (more than Pratt), but the district outside of Shakopee is still quite red, and is safe for the incumbent this cycle. The REAL action is 100% in 55A. Some background, former GOP Rep Bob Loonan got a DUI, and his personal behavior was getting more and more erratic, causing a primary challenger from Eric Mortensen in 2018. Loonan and Mortensen are NOT cordial with one another in any way shape or form. Mortensen ultimately defeated Loonan in the endorsement convention. Loonan, enraged, went forward to a contentious primary anyways, with Mortensen won narrowly. Mortensen then went on to lose to Democratic mayor of Shakopee Brad Tabke (perhaps the DFL’s top recruit of the cycle) in November that year. Loonan blames Mortensen for costing Republicans (and him) this seat, meanwhile Mortensen still thinks Loonan is crazy. Fast forward a year, and Bob Loonan announces his run for his old seat against Tabke. Within a week, Mortensen gets in the same race to defeat Loonan again (and ultimately Tabke, this time). At the county convention, Mortensen wins the endorsement in March 2020. Loonan flips out, declares war on the GOP, and announced he is going forward with the primary in August anyways. Meanwhile, Brad Tabke is working his reddish district hard and makes it publicly shown he is the grownup in the room. Tabke has outraised the combined efforts of Mortensen and Loonan, and the district has not moved left in the last 2 years. This was a Toss-up earlier, but Tabke appears to have taken control of the race enough to call him the favorite. 55B is also boring with 4 term incumbent Tony Albright assured a 5th term against his Dem opponent Andrea Nelson.
House 55A: Romney (R) 52-46, Trump (R) 47-43, Walz (D) 49-46
Rating: Lean D
House 55B: Romney (R) 60-38, Trump (R) 57-34, Johnson (R) 56-40
Rating: Safe R
Senate 55 Rating: Safe R
District 56: This is swingy Burnsville and a sliver of Apple Valley to the east (56B) and marginally Republican Savage to the west (56A). Incumbent Senator Dan Hall, a preacher by trade, is running for reelection against 2016 candidate for HD56B Lindsey Port (Port lost 52-47 against Roz Peterson). Port is best known for her involvement in the Al Franken #MeToo resignation the next year, however. Port beat out multiple other Democrats for the endorsement, and looks to be well-funded heading into November. Though there a couple other non-Port Dems who are still upset at Port’s involvement with Franken’s resignation running against her in the primary, though neither Richard Tucker or Kevin Shea are major threats to Port’s nomination, even with Shea raising a decent amount of money. Like many suburbs, this area has changed drastically under Hall’s feet. For instance, Democrats hold both House seats in this senate district, which would have been hard to imagine possible at the start of the decade, or even 5 years ago. It’s also one of only two Senate districts in the state right now, where both House seats are held by the opposite party; the other is SD58. This is a Lean-D affair at this point, given the brand of theocratic conservatism Hall brings to the table, and the changes that have occurred in the district in recent years (from Romney+2 through Clinton+4, to Walz+8), and Port’s name recognition and fundraising advantage over the incumbent. Freshman Dem Rep Hunter Cantrell came out of nowhere to win this seat against a 25-year-old incumbent in 2018. Cantrell didn’t like life in St. Paul, and is not running for reelection, and neither is the now 27-year-old former representative from this seat. Democrats didn’t score a recruitment win here, but Republicans did. Dems are running 32-year-old social worker Jess Hanson. Republicans got former State Rep Pam Myhra to run for the seat she held from 2011-2015. Since that time, Myhra has been Marty Siefert’s successful running mate for governor in 2014, and then she lost to DFLer Julie Blaha for the open State Auditor office in 2018. Myhra is definitely the stronger candidate, but this seat has changed since she last ran for this office in 2012, so this race is a Toss-up going into November, though gun to my head, I give the advantage to Myhra, if only by a curly one. We have a second open House seat in one senate seat, due to a second D freshman not liking St. Paul (weird coincidence), as Alice Mann is hanging it up after just 2 years. The woman Mann unseated 53-47, Roz Peterson, is running for her old job again. Democrats are going with political newcomer businesswoman Kaela Berg. 56B is slightly to the left of 56A, and Peterson is not as strong of a candidate as Myhra, so 56B is a Lean D affair, as Roz lost this seat by 6 when the seat was 2-years earlier in the blue shift.
House 56A: Romney (R) 51-47, Clinton (D) 47-44, Walz (D) 52-46
Rating: Toss-up
House 56B: Obama (D) 49.07-48.78, Clinton (D) 48-43, Walz (D) 53-43
Rating: Lean D
Senate 56 Rating: Lean D (flip)
District 57: Rosemount and Apple Valley. This is swingy area around Rosemount, and slightly more Republican area around Apple Valley. Senator Greg Clausen (D) is going for his 3rd term. Republicans have an interesting situation here, with two political neophytes getting the GOP endorsements in two of the districts here: husband and wife combo. Jose Jiminez is the husband and Republican nominee for SD57 against Clausen. Following a last-minute flurry of registrations at the filing deadline set in motion like dominos when Lori Swanson filed for governor last minute, the DFL had to scramble to get a candidate to hold HD57A in 2018, as Erin Murphy tapped freshman DFL rep Erin Maye Quade to be her running mate on the eve of election day. This worked out in the favor of then-newbie Robert Bierman, as he won the endorsement, the primary, and the general election, thus holding this seat going into reelection in 2020. Bierman will face off either against 22-year-old college student Megan Olson who beat out a political staffer for the endorsement before the filing deadline. Bierman is in good shape going into November, and teetering on safe, but not moving the rating quite yet given Olson is actually running a campaign. In the slightly more conservative Apple Valley based 57B, Freshman Rep John Huot (D) won his first term in 2018, in what was then a rematch after losing to then-incumbent Anna Wills in 2016. Huot will be running against the wife in the husband/wife combo: Sandra Jimenez. Also of note, Sandra and Jose are the parents of of 2016 57A GOP nominee Ali Jimenez-Hopper. Jimenez unlike her husband has a campaign website, though is raising less money than him. Huot is safe for reelection
House 57A: Obama (D) 51-47, Clinton (D) 49-42, Walz (D) 55-41
Rating: Likely D
House 57B: Obama (D) 49.07-48.78, Clinton (D) 48-44, Walz (D) 53-44
Rating: Safe D
Senate 57 Rating: Safe D
District 58: Lakeville and southern Dakota County. This was once pretty Republican turf (56% Romney), and is still not super DFL-friendly, but like most suburbs and exurbs, it’s moving that direction. This has a marquee Senate election, as Matt Little is seen as the prime target for a GOP pick up to offset a sure loss in SD44. The Republican Party has endorsed Zach Duckworth, a national guard officer and firefighter. Little is a proven overperformer, as a Senator and as the mayor of Lakeville before that, so he has an advantage out of the gate, as he won by 1 point on the same ballot Trump won by 14, and the district is moving left like most suburbs. Initially this race was Toss-up, but Duckworth for whatever reason, is not raising much money, even compared to other GOP challengers let alone compared to Little, which is inexplicable considering this is by far the most GOP district held by a Dem. In the Lakeville based 58A sophomore GOPer Jon Koznick is a strong favorite against DFL teacher Erin Preese, though Preese is outraising Koznick and is running a viable campaign, so this race is moving to Likely D, as Biden may actually carry Lakeville, which would be the first time a non-Klobuchar Dem has won Lakeville in a statewide race in living memory. Pat Garofalo has represented Farmington in the House since 2004, and will continue to do so until at least 2023. Democrats put up Some Dude candidate in Sara Wolf against Garofalo, not that it matters.
House 58A: Romney (R) 56-42, Trump (R) 51-40, Johnson (R) 50-46
Rating: Likely R
House 56B: Romney (R) 56-42, Trump (R) 57-35, Johnson (R) 53-43
Rating: Safe R
Senate 58 Rating: Lean D
Districts 59-63. These seats are all Minneapolis, and all are going to go 70-30 DFL+. I will keep the segments brief unless there is something important involving the DFL primary.
District 59: This is the north side of Minneapolis, home of Keith Ellison, and the closest thing to a majority Minority district you can get in the state. Senator Bobby Joe Champion has been a cornerstone of North for a long time, and has represented the area in the legislature since 2008, first as a Representative now as a Senator. Champion has a primary challenger against Somali-American businessman Suleiman Isse. This isn’t Champion’s first primary, and likely won’t be his last, but he is endorsed and the favorite in the primary. There are major cultural divides between the African American population and the Somali-American populations in North, which often appear in a lot of gang war, and school violence with each group attacking the other at various times. Fue Lee unseated a sitting state rep in the 2016 primary to get his seat and only has a Green challenger in November. 59B Representative Raymond Dehn is running for reelection, without the DFL endorsement, which went to young lawyer Esther Agbaje. Dehn narrowly won his primary in 2018 so a 2020 primary was a certainty. It’ll be a close election again, though Agbage may have the upper hand.
House 59A: Clinton 78-14
House 59B: Clinton 79-13
District 60: This district covers Northeast Minneapolis the U of M campus (and its 51,000 students), and a small sliver into Cedar-Riverside, and its large Somali community. 2-term incumbent Senator Kari Dziedzic does not have a primary. 2020 Special election winner Sydney Jordan does not have a primary in 60A. 60B representative Mohamud Noor, the man who replaced Ihlan Omar in the legislature in the 2018 elections, is outright unopposed.
House 60A: Clinton: 76-14
House 60B: Clinton: 79-12
District 61: This is Southwest Minneapolis, which is the richest area in the city. Minneapolis is known as the City of Lakes, and this district holds more than its fair share, and the homes on the lakes are rather palatial. This doesn’t mean they are any more conservative than the less affluent parts of the city, as this is as Democratic as the poverty stricken 59th district. 18-year incumbent Senator Scott Dibble, Representative Frank Hornstein, first elected the same time as Dibble, and Freshman Jamie Long are all running for reelection without primaries.
House 61A: Clinton 81-12
House 61B: Clinton 81-12
District 62: This is a combination of Hipsters on the western side of the district, diverse areas in the center and south, and college students on the Northern edge. This is the most Democratic, most liberal, and most politically homogenous district in the entire state. Senator Jeff Hayden lost the endorsement to 2018 62A also-ran Omar Fateh. Hayden and Fateh are going into a high dollar primary August 11th, and who wins that race is completely up in the air. Freshman Rep Hodan Hassan does not have a primary in 62A this year, nor does fellow freshman Aisha Gomez in 62B.
House 62A: Clinton 83-7
House 62B: Clinton 85-7
District 63: This is South Minneapolis, running from Downtown to the Airport. Long-time Incumbents Patricia Torres Ray (63) Jim Davnie (63A) are both running again. Davnie has a primary opponent, though Davnie has the endorsement and the other DFLer running, April Kane, is not seen as a serious candidate. Jean Wagenius (63B) is retiring after 34 years in office. Political organizer Emma Greenman got the endorsement, but there is a 3-way primary on the ballot for August 11th, with Greenman being a large favorite over Jerome Evans and Husniyah Bradley.
House 63A: Clinton 81-11
House 63B: Clinton 73-18
Districts 64-67: This is essentially St. Paul. Again, much like in Minneapolis, all of these seats are 100% Safe DFL, and will be won by blowout margins, so the focus is on races with DFL primaries.
District 64: This is what is known as the West Side of St. Paul. It has many different pockets of different groups, far too many to try and mention here. Erin Murphy represented 64A before her failed gubernatorial run in 2018. Following that loss, she has had the path cleared for her as 34-year incumbent Richard Cohen is retiring to give his seat to her to give her a comfy perch to plan her next political move. Kaohly Her won Murphy’s seat when it was vacated last cycle, and does not have a primary in 2020. Dave Pinto (D-64B) is back for a 4rd term without primary opposition.
House 64A: Clinton 78-13
House 64B: Clinton 73-18
District 65: This is Downtown St. Paul, and some surrounding areas. 30-year incumbent Senator Sandy Pappas is running again, and faces a primary in regional United Negro College Fund director Laverne McCartney-Knighton. This is a contested primary, but Pappas appears to have the upper hand, if only slightly. Representatives Rena Moran (65A) and Carlos Mariani (65B) are running again without primaries.
House 65A: Clinton: 80-12
House 65B: Clinton 74-17
District 66: This is the northern edge of St. Paul, and includes the State Fair Grounds, and a tiny sliver of Roseville to balance population. Longtime Senator John Marty does not have a primary. Alice Hausman (66A) likewise does not face a primary challenger. and John Lesch (66B) however does have a primary in activist lawyer Athena Hollins. This is a tightly contested primary with no clear favorite, though Lesch does have the party’s backing officially.
House 66A: Clinton 67-24
House 66B: Clinton 76-16
District 67: This is the eastern part of St. Paul. Sophomore Senator Fuong Hawj does not have a primary. Tim Mahoney (67A) has represented eastern St. Paul in the House since the 1990s, and is retiring, leaving an open seat. After some political posturing, the DFL backed St. Paul Public Schools maintenance mechanic John Thompson. Thompson was personal friends with Philando Castille, who was murdered by police during a traffic stop in 2016 in a high-profile case that was a precursor to the fallout from the murder of George Floyd, as nothing came of the Castille murder, which enraged the Twin Cities Community, setting the stage for what happened after George Floyd was likewise murdered by police 3.5 years later. Freshman 67B Rep Jay Xiong does not have a primary this cycle.
House 67A: Clinton 70-21
House 67B: Clinton 70-22
In conclusion, there are 4 Toss-up seats in the House, which is not nearly enough to put the lower chamber in play for the GOP, as it currently stands 75D-59R . Meanwhile in the Senate, Districts 25, 44, and 56 are Lean D or better flip from right to left. With SD14 and SD27 Are toss-up, one from each party. So The Senate is currently slated to be 34D-32R-2 Toss-up, meaning the Republicans would have to sweep the Toss-up seats and move one Lean D or more seat from the blue column to the red in order to maintain a seat at the table going into redistricting. Minnesota has had court drawn maps for the last 60 years.