This is the eighth in an ongoing series, updated biweekly, about where the real election — the one decided state by state, rather than national polling — stands. As usual, we’ll start with the electoral vote breakdowns, then move on to the state-by-state polling for the swing states. All the numbers are from August 7. Today we’re adding two new models. First is the PredictIt prediction market forecasts, as updated regularly on the 270towin website. I’m adding this largely because it uses a completely different methodology than other sites already included. Second is ElectionProjection.com.
PredictIt markets: Biden 334, Trump 204. As you may have guessed, this map is based on what people are actually betting on PredictIt — let’s call it the crowd-source model. There are no tossups unless the market is evenly split on a state. Right now the closest states are FL and NC (both tilt D).
ElectionProjection.com: Biden 334, Trump 204. The site does use polling numbers, although it wasn’t clear to me what else goes into their projections (it details their track record over election cycles back to 2004). Weakest D states are AZ and NC; weakest R states are GA, IA, OH, TX.
JHK model: No update, “model being adjusted” per the site. Biden 349, Trump 189. IA, GA, OH and TX appear to be the weakest states for either side.
Princeton Election Consortium: Updated daily. Biden 351 (+25 from 2 weeks ago). The link to PEC’s 270towin.com map shows a higher count for Biden (407), which is where the model was a month or so ago.
CNN: Updated! Biden 268 (+36 from 2 weeks ago), Trump 170, 100 tossups. Tossups are AZ, FL, GA, NC, OH, WI.
The Economist: Updated daily. Biden 356 (+4), Trump 182. Tossups (“Uncertain” states) are GA, IA, NC, OH and TX.
Electoral-vote.com: Updated daily. Biden 372 (-34), Trump 150, ties 16. Tie is GA; weakest D states are NC, NV, TX; weakest R states are AR, IA, OH.
Plural Vote: Updated daily. Biden 344 (+1), Trump 194. Weakest D states are AZ, GA, IA, NC, TX; weakest R state is OH.
Rachel Bitecofer: Updated! Biden 318 (+29), Trump 125, 95 tossups. Tossups are GA, IA, NC, OH, TX, and 1 Congressional district each in ME and NE.
Inside Elections: No update. Biden 319, Trump 188, 31 tossups. Tossups are GA and NC. Weakest D states are AZ, FL, WI; weakest R states are IA, OH, TX.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: No update. Biden 268, Trump 204, 66 tossups. Tossups are AZ, FL, NC, WI and 1 Congressional district in NE.
Cook Political Report: Updated July 23. Biden 308 (+29), Trump 187, 43 tossups. Tossups are AZ, GA, NC, and 1 EV in ME.
Real Clear Politics: Updated! Biden 212 (-10), Trump 115, 211 tossups (+10). Apparently feeling they just had too many EVs assigned to Biden, RCP decided to shift 10 back into the tossup category. So let’s look at their no toss-ups map again: that shows Biden 352, Trump 186, (no change).
With 13 sites tracked, 10 predict an outright Biden win (11 if we use the RCP “no toss-ups” map), with anywhere from 308 to 372 EVs. Seven models (if we use RCP’s “no tossups”) have converged on the 334-356 EV range for Biden. Of the remainder, CNN and Sabato are both on the cusp of outright Biden victory at 368 EVs, with Trump needing to win every toss-up to capture an electoral win.
Here are current polling averages from fivethirtyeight and RCP, in order of largest to smallest margins for Biden as predicted by 538. This week we add Alaska. I’ll also add MI back in, to make sure the Midwestern trifecta that handed Trump the presidency is fully covered.
(1) MI: Spreads are Biden +7.8 (538, up 0.1) and Biden +7.5 (RCP).
(2) WI: Spreads are Biden +7.5 (538, up 0.5) and Biden +5.0 (RCP).
(3) PA: Spreads are Biden +6.1 (538, down 1.4) and Biden +4.7 (RCP).
(4) NV: Spreads are Biden +6.0 (538, down 0.7) and Biden +4.0 (RCP).
(5) FL: Spreads are Biden +5.2 (538, down 2.4) and Biden +4.0 (RCP).
(6) AZ: Spreads are Biden +3.6 (538, up 0.8) and Biden +3.7 (RCP).
(7) NC: Spreads are Biden +2.3 (538, up 0.1) and Biden +4.6 (RCP).
(8) OH: Spreads are Biden +0.3 (538, down 1.7) and Biden +2.3 (RCP).
(9) TX: Spreads are Trump +0.9 (538, Biden down 1.9) and Trump +2.0 (RCP).
(10) GA: Spreads are Trump +0.9 (538, Biden up 0.5) and Trump +1.6 (RCP).
(11) IA: Spreads are Trump +1.4 (538, Biden down 1.0) and Trump +1.7 (RCP).
(12) AK: No average — the July polls on 538 now have Trump up by 1, 3, and 6 pts, while RCP has the single +3 poll, so call it Trump +3.3 on average.
Movement in the polling averages continues to be a mixed bag, with Biden moving up in some, down in others. The biggest drop for Biden was in FL, but this was the state where he had his biggest increase last time, so it’s pretty much a wash. Furthermore, none of the changes are large enough to indicate a significant shift in the race. The Midwestern trifecta (MI, WI, PA) remains Biden’s with margins of more than 6 pts in each state. Things continue to look good in AZ, FL, and NC as well (these are the states that would put Biden into the mid-300s for EVs). And with TX appearing to be a genuine toss-up (the polls have been too close for too long to be a mere statistical fluke) Trump has to play defense in a large state that should be a GOP lock in a modern presidential contest.
What does Biden need to do to nail down Florida? How real is the Texas toss-up? Should Biden be doing less of the ‘basement campaign’ and start doing more interviews and speeches? Or should that wait until September? Share your thoughts!