How bad is the 2020 hurricane season expected to be? So bad there might not be enough traditional hurricane names to go around, experts say.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s May forecast gave a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season. That’s now up to 85% in the latest forecast, with a prediction of 19 to 25 named storms, seven to 11 of them hurricanes, with three to six becoming major hurricanes. Because what 2020 needed was a lot of people without power or clean water.
“An average year, based on 1981 to 2010 data, is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes,” the Associated Press reports. “Everything looks ready to be a pretty huge year,” University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy told the AP.
This is the highest number of storms ever forecast, though in 2005 a forecast of 21 named storms turned into 28 of them. That isn’t expected this year. There are 21 names assigned, and if that number is exceeded, the later storms are named after characters in the Greek alphabet.
Colorado State University, which does a separate hurricane forecast, just increased its predictions to 24 named storms, with 12 of them being hurricanes and five becoming major hurricanes.
Climate change doesn’t necessarily cause more hurricanes, but it makes them more likely to be dangerous, with higher wind speeds and more precipitation.