Welcome to the September 2020 edition of BeloitDem’s congressional race ratings! Since Washington and California have both finished their primaries, I added rating for single party races just for fun. All seats not listed in the table below are considered safe for the party that currently holds them, except for NC-2 and NC-6, which are rated safe Democratic pickup. All single-party general elections not listed are considered safe for the incumbent. Bolded seats are currently held by Republicans, while italicized ones are currently held by Democrats. Explanations for my rating changes are below the fold. As always, feel free to quibble.
ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Likely d |
lean D |
tossup |
lean r |
likely R |
CO
ME
NV
VA
|
AZ
MI
PA
MN
NH
WI
|
FL (Tilt D)
GA (Tilt R)
NC
ME-02
NE-02
TX (Tilt R)
|
IA
OH
|
AK
KS
MO
MT
NE-01
SC
|
GOVERNORS
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
NC-GOV |
|
|
MT-GOV
|
MO-GOV
NH-GOV
VT-GOV
|
SENATE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
MN-SEN
NH-SEN
VA-SEN
|
AZ-SEN
CO-SEN
MI-SEN
ME-SEN
NC-SEN
|
IA-SEN (Tilt R)
GA-SEN A (Tilt R)
|
GA-SEN-B
KS-SEN
MT-SEN
|
AK-SEN
AL-SEN
SC-SEN
TX-SEN
|
HOUSE
likely d |
lean d |
tossup |
lean r |
likely r |
AZ-2
CA-21
CA-39
CA-49
FL-7
FL-27
FL-13
IL-6
KS-3
MI-11
MN-2
NH-1
NJ-5
NJ-11
NV-4
NY-19
OR-4
PA-6
PA-17
PA-8
TX-32
VA-10
WA-8
WI-3
|
AZ-1
CA-10
CA-48
GA-6
GA-7
IA-1
IA-2
IA-3
IL-14
MI-8
NJ-3
NJ-7
NV-3
NY-11
PA-7
TX-7
TX-23
TX-24
VA-2
VA-7
|
AZ-6
CA-25
FL-26 (Tilt D)
IN-5
ME-2
MO-2 (Tilt D)
NE-2
NJ-2 (Tilt D)
NM-2 (Tilt D)
NY-22
NY-24 (Tilt R)
OK-5
PA-1 (Tilt R)
SC-1
TX-21
TX-22
UT-4 (Tilt D)
|
CO-3
IL-13
KS-2
MI-3
MI-6
MN-1
MN-7
MT-AL
NC-8
NY-1
NY-2
OH-1
PA-10
TX-10
WA-3
|
AK-AL
AR-2
CA-22
CA-50
FL-15
FL-16
FL-18
IL-12
KY-6
MI-7
MN-8
NE-1
NC-11
NY-21
OH-10
OH-12
OH-14
PA-16
TX-2
TX-3
TX-6
TX-25
TX-31
VA-5
WI-6
WI-8
|
SINGLE PARTY GENERAL ELECTIONS
SeAT |
RATing |
CA-29
CA-53
WA-10
|
Likely Cardenas
Tilt Jacobs
Lean Strickland
|
Likely D to Leans D:
MI-SEN: James has had some decent looking polls recently, don’t hate.
Lean D to Tossup / Tilt D:
FL-26: Ultimately I still think Mucersell Powell pulls it off because the top of the ticket here is going to be pretty bad for Republicans, but there as been some pretty ugly polling for her floating around.
Tossup to Lean D:
GA-7: Suburban realignment go brrr. Now let’s win the Georgia house so that both Bordeaux and McBath get winnable districts next cycle.
TX-24: We’ve seen a lot of polling that looks good for us here, and Biden is probably winning by mid single digits.
Tossup / Tilt R to Tossup / Tilt D:
NJ-02: Get fucked JVD.
Lean R to Tossup:
IN-5: Multiple polls showing Biden winning the district.
Likely R to Lean R:
KS-SEN: Polling showing a close race even with Marshall and a Presidential race within 10 points.
NC-8: Timmons-Goodson has raised real money, and we’ve seen some close polls.
NY-1: Another DCCC internal I’m not sure I totally believe but am also not completely ignoring. Plus this one was on the edge anyways.
Safe R to Likely R:
KS PRES: Various polls showing a sorta close race.
MO-PRES: Various polls showing a sorta close race.
NC-11: I don’t really buy some of the recent polling we’ve seen on this race, but I’m not going to completely ignore it, either.
NE-1: Fortenberry has certainly been acting like he’s in at least a moderately serious race recently, releasing multiple ads including a negative spot against his opponent.
NE-01 PRES: Should have stuck to my guns on this one.
SC-PRES: Various polls showing a sorta close race.