Hurricane Sally is expected to strike the coast near the border of Louisiana and Mississippi early on Wednesday morning, bringing with it “historic flooding and life-threatening conditions.” If that warning sounds familiar, it’s because it was only two weeks ago that Hurricanes Marco and Laura did a one-two dash into the western part of Louisiana. Fortunately, the most dire warnings over Hurricane Laura somewhat fizzled as an expected massive storm surge grew to only half the expected height. Even so, the storm was one of the strongest to ever strike the region, left behind massive areas of damage, and now … the same area is about to be hit again.
Where the threat from Laura was primarily storm surge—backed up by unexpectedly high winds that held onto their force far inland—Hurricane Sally is predicted to remain a Category 1 storm as it pushes toward the coast. It’s not likely to carry a huge surge, or bring devastating winds. However, Sally bears some resemblance to the hurricanes of the 2019 season in that it’s moving slowly and carrying a lot of rain. Areas of the low-lying delta region can expect to see 30” of rain as the storm moves past, generating a very serious threat of flooding.
What may be even more frightening than Sally’s projected path into the central Gulf states is the sheer length of the storm list at the National Hurricane Center (NHC). In addition to Hurricane Sally, there’s Hurricane Paulette, Tropical Storm Teddy, Tropical Storm Vicky, and a pair of tropical depressions that are swirling out in the Atlantic. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Karina is pushing through the Pacific as one of the three most active hurricane seasons on record shows no sign of abating.
Tuesday, Sep 15, 2020 · 7:34:12 PM +00:00
·
Mark Sumner
As of Tuesday afternoon, Hurricane Sally continues as a Category 1 storm with sustained winds at 80mph. The storm is move very slowly northwest … slowly. Slower than that. Like 2 mph … and is now expected to hook back to the northeast striking somewhere near the mouth of Mobile Bay in Alabama.
Storm surge in the central area could be 4-7 feet, which may not sound that great compared to recent storms, except that if this proceeds up the bay, there’s a significant potential for damage.
However, as per earlier predictions, the biggest threat remains flooding from strong, persistent rain as the storm slowly passes.
The most active hurricane season on record came in 2005. That was not only the year of monster storms Katrina and Rita—those storms were part of a season that included 27 named storms in the Atlantic alone, requiring the NHC to haul out tropical storm names Alpha, Gamma, Delta, and Zeta along with hurricanes Beta and Epsilon at the end of the record-shattering season.
But in that year, it took until Sept. 14 to get to Hurricane Ophelia. The 2020 season was already up to “V” with Tropical Storm Vicky by that date. The incredibly powerful Hurricane Rita did not begin to develop until Sept. 18. At the current pace, 2020 is going to be into the Greek zone by next week because … 2020.
Several of the storms clustered out at sea currently are likely to remain there. Hurricane Paulette is likely to blast Bermuda as a Category 2 storm before swinging out into the North Atlantic. Tropical Storm Vicky is projected to weaken in the next few days and may become a tropical depression by Friday. On the Pacific side, Karina is continuing to strengthen off the Baja Peninsula, but is expected to turn west and swing out to sea.
However, Tropical Storm Teddy, currently in mid-Atlantic, is expected to become a large, powerful hurricane in the next couple of days as it moves west and north. For the remainder of this week, it’s expected to continue growing as it moves toward the east coast of the United States. Whether it will eventually make landfall or turn back out to sea along a path like that of Paulette is yet to be determined.
By the time we know that answer, one or more tropical depressions now sitting off the coast of Africa are likely to earn names of their own as this apparently endless hurricane season, and year, continues. Right now, the 2020 season is tied with the 1933 season for the second most active season on record with 20 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and one major hurricane. With low wind sheer and warm water persisting, it seems very likely that 2020 will produce a total close to nudging 2005 from the top slot. But we can at least hope that this season will not cough up six more major hurricanes to match those that appeared in the season of Katrina.
That 2005 season didn’t really peak with Katrina or Rita, awful as they were. The worst storm of the season didn’t really develop until Oct. 15, when Hurricane Wilma spun up south of Cuba, hooked left around the island, then spun back to the east to cross Florida. Top wind speeds on Wilma exceeded 185 miles per hour, topping even Rita.
We still have a way to go before we’re in the clear.