The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● MT-Gov: The DGA is up with two commercials that use Republican Greg Gianforte's words against him … including one truly bizarre address he made to the Montana Bible College years ago where he used Noah to argue against the idea of retirement.
The narrator begins, "This is what Greg Gianforte thinks about your hard-earned Social Security," and the audience then hears the candidate say:
"The example I think of is Noah. How old was Noah when he built the ark? Six-hundred, yeah, ok. He wasn't like, cashing Social Security checks, he wasn't hanging out, he was working, right? So, I think we have an obligation to work."
The narrator jumps back in and says, "No wonder Gianforte voted to put Social Security and Medicare at risk, but got a $3 million tax break." The other ad twice utilizes a clip of Gianforte saying that "the fairest tax is the one that you pay and I don't" to hit him over his support for a state sales tax.
Campaign Action
Meanwhile, campaign finance reports are in for the period covering Aug. 16 through Sept. 15, and Democrat Mike Cooney outraised Gianforte $670,000 to $334,000, while Gianforte self-funded an additional $1 million. Cooney held a $455,000 to $260,000 cash-on-hand lead, but Gianforte's ability to keep pouring in his own money means that this edge may not last long.
Senate
● AK-Sen: Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan has what we believe is Team Red's first negative ad against Al Gross, an independent who is the Democratic nominee. The commercial doesn't mention any of Gross' views and instead just ties him to national Democrats. The spot concludes, "Al would put D.C. liberals back in charge, and that's just gross," which is about as clever as most Republican ads get.
● GA-Sen-B: The University of Georgia is out with a new survey of the November all-party primary for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, and it finds a close three-way race to reach the all-but-certain January runoff.
Appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler takes first with 24%, while Republican Rep. Doug Collins and pastor Raphael Warnock, the favored candidate of national Democrats, are deadlocked 20-20 for the second-place spot. Two other Democrats, businessman Matt Lieberman and former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, take 11% and 5%, respectively. The sample shows the presidential race tied 48-48.
This is the school's first poll since February, and unsurprisingly, quite a lot has changed. Back then, Collins was in first with 21%, while Loeffler edged out Lieberman 19-11 for second.
● IA-Sen: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst generated headlines early this month for all the wrong reasons when she said she was "so skeptical" of the government's coronavirus statistics and baselessly speculated, "They're thinking there may be 10,000 or less deaths that were actually singularly Covid-19," and Senate Majority PAC has now launched an ad taking her to task.
The spot stars a physician named Kristy Calland who says, "During the initial surge I started doing some 12-hour shifts at the hospital to help out. Now I see Joni Ernst question the number of COVID fatalities."
The commercial then shows a news clip saying, "Sen. Joni Ernst is suggesting the government statistics on COVID-19 cases and deaths have been inflated." The ad goes back to Calland, who declares, "Sen. Ernst—these deaths are real. You're spreading lies that attack frontline health care workers like me." Calland concludes, "The fact that you believe this shows just how much you've changed."
● Polls:
- AL-Sen: Morning Consult: Tommy Tuberville (R): 52, Doug Jones (D-inc): 34 (Aug.: 52-35 Tuberville)
- AZ-Sen: Fabrizio Lee (R) for Martha McSally: Mark Kelly (D): 48, Martha McSally (R-inc): 46 (Jan.: 47-45 McSally)
- AZ-Sen: Morning Consult: Kelly (D): 49, McSally (R-inc): 40 (July: 52-36 Kelly)
- CO-Sen: Morning Consult: John Hickenlooper (D): 49, Cory Gardner (R-inc): 42 (Aug.: 48-39 Hickenlooper)
- GA-Sen-A: Morning Consult: Jon Ossoff (D): 44, David Perdue (R-inc): 43 (July: 45-42 Perdue)
- GA-Sen-A: University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Perdue (R-inc): 47, Ossoff (D): 45, Shane Hazel (L): 4 (48-48 presidential tie)
- KY-Sen: Morning Consult: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 52, Amy McGrath (D): 37 (Aug.: 53-36 McConnell)
- MI-Sen: Marketing Resource Group (R): Gary Peters (D-inc): 42, John James (R): 40 (46-41 Biden) (July: 41-34 Peters)
- MI-Sen: Morning Consult: Peters (D-inc): 47, James (R): 40 (July: 49-35 Peters)
- NC-Sen: Harper Polling (R) for Civitas Institute: Cal Cunningham (D): 44, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 38 (Aug.: 41-38 Cunningham)
- NC-Sen: Morning Consult: Cunningham (D): 47, Tillis (R-inc): 38 (Aug.: 47-39 Cunningham)
- SC-Sen: Morning Consult: Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 46, Jaime Harrison (D): 45 (50-44 Trump) (Aug.: 44-43 Graham)
- TX-Sen: Morning Consult: John Cornyn (R-inc): 45, MJ Hegar (D): 39 (Aug.: 44-38 Cornyn)
AL-Sen: This is the first poll we've seen of Alabama since Morning Consult's last survey a month ago.
AZ-Sen: While the Fabrizio Lee internal for Republican incumbent Martha McSally finds her closer to Democrat Mark Kelly than most surveys have shown, this poll is ominous for her in one respect. Back in January, Fabrizio Lee found McSally ahead 47-45, and since then, the only firm that's shown her with any sort of lead has been the unreliable Gravis Marketing.
SC-Sen: This is the latest survey to find Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham in an unexpectedly tight race with Democrat Jaime Harrison. Our Daily Kos Elections polling average, which does not yet include this survey, has the Senate race deadlocked 46-46.
Morning Consult notes that the big problem for Graham is that he's still running well behind Donald Trump with Republicans: While 93% of this group is in Trump's corner, only 84% are for Graham. Independents also are split 39-39 in the Senate race, while they favor Trump 44-40. Harrison, by contrast, has the backing of 95% of Democrats, which is the same portion that Joe Biden has, so he doesn't have much room left to make gains with his party's base.
Harrison's challenge is still to win over enough crossover support from Trump voters, or hope that a large chunk of them just skip the Senate race or go for the third candidate, Constitution Party nominee Bill Bledsoe. However, Graham's role as chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee will give him a high-profile role in the upcoming Supreme Court confirmation fight, which could give the incumbent a chance to win over the conservatives who have been reluctant to support him up till now.
Gubernatorial
● VT-Gov: Braun Research, polling on behalf of Vermont Public Radio, has released the first survey we've seen of this contest in months, and it finds that Republican Gov. Phil Scott remains the heavy favorite to win a third two-year term. The poll gives Scott a 55-24 lead over David Zuckerman, who is the nominee of both the Democratic Party and the Vermont Progressive Party (the state allows candidates to claim multiple party's nominations), which is little changed from his 52-29 edge in February; the sample also has Joe Biden ahead 56-32.
The only other survey we've seen of this contest was from June, when the conservative firm We Ask America had Scott beating Zuckerman 60-25.
● WA-Gov: The Democratic firm Strategies 360, polling for KOMO-TV, brings us our first survey of this contest since the early August top-two primary, and it finds Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee leading Republican Loren Culp 53-37; the sample also favors Joe Biden 58-36.
Neither national party has shown any obvious interest in the general election, though the Seattle Times' Jim Brunner reports that the DGA did deploy $600,000 here before the top-two primary. It's not clear why the committee got involved, especially since there was never any danger that Inslee wouldn't advance to the second round. It's possible, though, that the DGA was looking to make sure Inslee performed well enough in early August so that he wouldn't appear vulnerable in November; the incumbent ended up winning 50.1%, while Culp took 17%.
House
● AZ-06: The DCCC is up with the first, though almost certainly not the last, ad we've seen focused on Republican Rep. David Schweikert's ethics issues. The spot begins with news anchors saying, "Congressman David Schweikert has admitted to eleven ethics violations … punished for breaking the rules on handling money for his campaign and in his Capitol Hill office."
The narrator picks up, "David Schweikert. Found guilty of 11 ethics violations. A $50,000 fine for misusing taxpayer and campaign funds." He adds, "Schweikert broke the law while collecting perks like first class flights and lavish dinners."
● FL-26: The DCCC uses its first TV spot here to argue that Republican Carlos Giménez, who serves as mayor of Miami-Dade County, is unethical, and it links him to a 2018 pedestrian bridge collapse that killed six people in Miami.
The narrator declares, "While he was mayor, Corrupt Carlos's administration gave millions to businesses with ties to his family." The ad goes on to say that Giménez's "family even managed the company that built" the aforementioned Florida International University pedestrian bridge. The ad continues, "And after the accident? Corrupt Carlos tried to push a new multi-million-dollar construction contract to their firm."
The NRCC, meanwhile, has a new commercial saying that freshman Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell "pushed for taxpayer-funded loans meant for small business, but somehow, the Wall Street traded company where her husband's an executive snagged two loans worth $15 million."
Politico wrote back in June that Fiesta Restaurant Group, where the congresswoman's husband works, had received loans from the Paycheck Protection Program that it quickly returned in full. Mucarsel-Powell's office said at the time that her husband had neither played a role in getting these loans or benefited from them, and that he'd even taken a pay cut as the pandemic devastated the economy.
● GA-07: In her opening general election ad, Democrat Carolyn Bourdeaux tells the audience, "During the Great Recession, I stepped up. Brought together both parties to balance Georgia's budget, and got our economy back on track." She continues, "Today we're in this crisis because of politicians who have given up."
The DCCC, meanwhile, is using its first commercial here to hit Republican Rich McCormick for having "used his medical credentials to spread dangerous misinformation" about the coronavirus. The narrator continues "McCormick claimed the virus was 'media hype,' commended Trump's response, and even said the death figures are inflated and masks aren't proven to work."
● IL-14: In his first TV ad of the general election, Republican Jim Oberweis tries to link freshman Democratic Rep. Lauren Underwood with rioting by highlighting a comment she made in a recent interview with the Chicago Sun-Times' editorial board. "We have seen many instances of beautiful protests," Underwood said as footage of violent looting in Kenosha and Chicago rolls. Of course, Underwood was referring to the many peaceful protests that have unfolded across the country since the murder of George Floyd in May.
● IN-05: The DCCC's first ad in Indiana's 5th District attacks Republican Victoria Spartz, claiming she "was caught writing a law to allow the destruction of Indiana's wetlands—the very lands where her family wanted to build a multi-million dollar development."
● ME-02, MI-08, MI-11, PA-08: This week, the Republican ad tracking firm Medium Buying reported that the DCCC had scaled back its TV reservations in three markets where Democrats are on defense, which appears to be good news for Team Blue. We've added this information to our Daily Kos Elections 2020 House race triage tracker, which we'll be continuously updating over the next six weeks.
Medium tweeted that the committee was "canceling TV ad schedules" that were booked for the Wilkes-Barre media market, which includes one contested seat, Pennsylvania's 8th District. A source familiar with Democratic media buys confirms to Daily Kos Elections that the DCCC's entire $400,000 reservation has been cut.
This suggests that Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, who is defending an ancestrally blue seat that flipped to Donald Trump in 2016 but moved back to the left in 2018, is in good shape against Republican Jim Bognet. Major GOP outside groups have yet to book any ad time to aid Bognet, which also indicates that Team Red doesn't feel optimistic here. The D-Trip's allies at House Majority PAC, though, have spent or reserved $1.4 million here, so it's not acting like this contest is over.
Medium also reported that the DCCC was "canceling TV ad schedules they had booked in Maine." However, the firm did not say how much the committee's $1.4 million reservation in the 2nd District had been reduced by, and we've been unable to confirm any details.
If accurate, though, it would indicate that D.C. Democrats are confident about Democratic Rep. Jared Golden's prospects in a seat that supported Trump 51-41 but where Golden has decisively led Republican Dale Crafts in several recent polls. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund, though, reportedly has $2.35 million booked to aid Crafts. (Update: This item originally mistakenly said that major GOP outside groups had not reserved anything here.)
Golden's allies at End Citizens United also are still active here, and it recently launched a $400,000 ad campaign while HMP has spent or reserved $2.3 million in this contest, so there's still plenty of activity taking place here. Both presidential campaigns are targeting this seat in order to win this electoral vote as well, and Trump's spending could end up giving the entire Republican ticket, including Crafts, a boost.
Finally, Medium said the DCCC was "canceling one set of the TV ad schedules they had booked in the Detroit DMA -- Leaving in place another set." The Detroit media market is home to two competitive districts, Michigan's 8th and 11th, which both flipped to the Democrats in 2018. The committee had reserved $2.2 million in Detroit, possibly to be shared across both races. However, we're told that the DCCC has canceled its full reservation for the 11th District and part of its booking for the 8th District, though again, it's not clear how much money it's keeping in play here.
HMP still has $5.3 million booked in Detroit, and this week, the group launched a joint $880,000 buy with the League of Conservation Voters targeting Republican Paul Junge in the 8th District. The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund also has $2.4 million reserved in this market.
● MI-06: Democrat Jon Hoadley's allies at Left of Center PAC have released a LOC Wick poll that finds longtime Republican Rep. Fred Upton ahead 46-40; the sample also favors Donald Trump 52-45, which is very similar to the 51-43 margin he won in this southwestern Michigan seat four years ago. The only other survey we've seen over the last two months was an early August poll from RMG Research for U.S. Term Limits that had Hoadley up 40-36.
This LOC Wick poll, though, asked a number of issue questions before getting to the horserace. Among other things, respondents were quizzed whether the worst of the pandemic was over for the country and state, if the pandemic had affected their employment, and if they had received a $600 unemployment check. We always encourage pollsters to ask issue questions after the horserace to avoid "priming" voters to lean one way or the other.
● NJ-02: House Majority PAC has released a new survey from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling that finds Democrat Amy Kennedy leading Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew 48-43. Respondents also favor Joe Biden 50-46 in a South Jersey seat that Donald Trump won 51-46 in 2016.
We saw three surveys of this district in August, and they all found a competitive race here as well. A GSG poll taken for HMP at the beginning of last month had Kennedy and Biden leading 46-45 and 47-45, respectively, while a GQR survey for the DCCC conducted around that same time had Kennedy up by a larger 51-46 margin while Biden held a 47-46 edge. Another early August poll for RMG Research for U.S. Term Limits, meanwhile, showed Van Drew ahead 42-39.
HMP also launched its opening TV spot this week, and it's the first ad we've seen that highlights Van Drew's December party switch. "Who is Jeff Van Drew this year?" the narrator asks, "Whoever he needs to be to get elected." She continues, "New Van Drew switched parties and raked in over a half million dollars from big business and special interest groups. He votes with them now too, and against tax cuts for homeowners and the COVID relief New Jersey needs."
The commercial goes on to show a clip of Van Drew telling a pleased Donald Trump, "You have my undying support," to which the narrator responds, "But Jeff Van Drew won't do a thing to help you."
● NY-01: None of the big four House outside groups spent much here in 2018 and it wasn't clear until this week if that would change this cycle, but House Majority PAC just launched its opening ad against Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin. The spot argues that, while Zeldin is in the pocket of insurance companies, Democrat Nancy Goroff is a scientist who will "listen to facts. Not special interests."
Zeldin, meanwhile, is out with a commercial arguing that he's the only candidate in this contest who stands with the police.
● OH-01: EMILY's List has launched a $400,000 buy focused on Republican Rep. Steve Chabot's sketchy campaign finances, a theme that has been present in several other Democratic commercials here.
● TX-22: The NRCC's recent decision to cancel its entire ad reservation for the Houston market was an ominous sign for Republican Troy Nehls' prospects here, but the DCCC isn't acting like this contest is over at all. The committee has released several opening commercials, including a spot in Spanish, attacking Nehls' record in the police, which is a theme House Majority PAC has focused on as well.
● TX-24: Democrat Candace Valenzuela narrates her first general election ad and says, "Growing up, I didn't always have a roof over my head. So school became my home." She goes on to say that her belief in public schools inspired her to serve on a local school board in the Dallas area.
● VA-02: Freshman Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria's newest ad features a local Democratic Party member, Lindsey Nathaniel, who first blew the whistle on former GOP Rep. Scott Taylor's petition fraud scandal in 2018.
Nathaniel (who in some press accounts is identified by the family name Terry) recounts a story she shared with TPM two years ago: After posting online about the signatures Taylor's campaign had faked, she says that Taylor himself called her. "He was frantic," she recalls, saying Taylor "was threatening legal action against me." Then, Nathaniel adds, Taylor said "he had someone drive past my house." "Is that supposed to scare me?" she concludes. "What scares me is Scott Taylor back in Congress."
● VA-07: The NRCC is reviving one of the most rancid attacks Republicans anywhere deployed in 2018 by once again charging that Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger taught at a school supposedly dubbed "Terror High." The claim is the most tendentious sort of Islamophobic bullshit: Spanberger briefly taught English as a substitute teacher at the Islamic Saudi Academy in Northern Virginia in 2002 and 2003, while she waited on the CIA to process her application to join the agency. The CIA soon hired her as an officer and granted her top-secret security clearance, not something it would have done had it had concerns about her background.
But it's how this attack even came to be in the first place that's also disgusting. Two years ago, a Republican super PAC wrongfully obtained a copy of Spanberger's application for federal security clearance, which included her medical history and Social Security number. Despite the fact that it should never have been disclosed, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC, used the application's contents to try to smear Spanberger. It was unsurprising, given how eagerly Republicans relied on materials stolen from Democrats by Vladimir Putin's hackers in 2016, but it was revolting nonetheless, and still is now.
Oh, and where did that "Terror High" epithet even come from? From a 2007 Associated Press article that claimed "virulent critics" had used the phrase to describe the school. It made for a snappy headline, but was anyone actually quoted saying it? Of course not.
● Ad Reservations: Politico reports that the DCCC has reserved an additional $2.65 million in ad time in several House seats the GOP won last cycle, and the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek has a more precise breakdown on some of the reservations in Texas. We've added the information to our Ad Reservation tracker.
The DCCC has reportedly reserved $631,000 in Colorado's 3rd District and $570,000 in Michigan's 3rd District, which makes it the first major outside group on either side to book time in either seat.
Colorado's 3rd District, which is located in the western part of the state, became open in June when Rep. Scott Tipton lost his primary to Lauren Boebert, who has expressed sympathy for the bonkers QAnon conspiracy theory. Both Democrat Diane Mitsch Bush and House Majority PAC each released polls here in recent weeks showing Mitsch Bush narrowly ahead, and both surveys also showed a presidential deadlock in a constituency Donald Trump took 52-40 in 2016. Tipton beat Mitsch Bush 52-44 last cycle, but the DCCC seems to be betting that this contest will be very different.
Michigan's 3rd District, meanwhile, became open when Rep. Justin Amash, a Republican turned independent turned Libertarian, launched a brief presidential bid. Last week, House Majority PAC released a GSG survey that found Democrat Hillary Scholten and Republican Peter Meijer tied 41-41, while Joe Biden led 49-41 in a seat that Trump carried 52-42 four years ago.
Politico also reports that the DCCC has reserved $622,000 that's intended for Texas' open 23rd District, while it's booked an additional $830,000 that could be used there or against Republican Rep. Chip Roy in the nearby 21st District.
Politico adds that "Republicans have privately written" off the 23rd District, which is being vacated by Republican Rep. Will Hurd, though the ad reservation information we have points to a conflicting picture: The NRCC recently booked time in several markets that overlap with the 23rd District, but that money could end up going towards other House contests.
Mayoral
● Miami-Dade County, FL Mayor: Democrat Daniella Levine Cava has released a new survey from Change Research that shows her leading Republican Steve Bovo 45-32 in this officially nonpartisan contest, while Joe Biden carries the county 58-37. A recent survey from the Democratic firm Bendixen & Amandi International for the Miami Herald had Cava and Biden ahead 39-32 and 55-38, respectively.
Ad Roundup