Texas? Yep. It appears things are a little worse there for Republicans than many of us might have imagined. When the Republican National Committee made cash transfers to six battleground states last month for their get-out-the-vote efforts, Texas was among them, according to Politico.
Democrats have had their eyes on Texas for almost a decade, realizing that moving it and its 38 electoral votes to even a purple column would entirely upend the Electoral College map. But the argument against investing there was that it would take a massive amount of money to flip the state.
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Instead, the state appears to have gone through a more natural political evolution, with an influx of young college graduates making the environment more target rich for Democrats. In 2018, House Democrats flipped two seats in the suburbs of Dallas and Houston, which have continually trended more blue in recent years. This year, House Democrats are targeting 10 districts across the state. And while Beto O'Rourke's bid in 2018 to unseat Texas Sen. Ted Cruz fell short, it only fell short by 2.6 points—that's a lot closer than the nine-point win Trump notched in 2016.
Still, a Democratic presidential nominee hasn't won the state since 1976, so the fact that the RNC would be devoting $1.3 million in resources to it is enticing. Politico notes that the sum was on par with what the RNC directed to other battlegrounds that have been grabbing the spotlight, such as Arizona and North Carolina; it's also double what it spent in the Lone Star State in July—suggesting the GOP's concern is growing rather than receding.
The state's polling aggregates currently give Trump a slim two-point edge in the presidential race, an improvement for him from July/August when the coronavirus was ravaging the state. The latest polls in the U.S. Senate race between GOP Sen. John Cornyn and Democrat MJ Hegar put Hegar behind but generally within single-digit striking distance. If there's a recent tell in the race, it's Cornyn airing a Spanish-language ad falsely claiming “he strongly supports the legalization of Dreamers.” Cornyn has voted against several versions of the Dream Act at least a handful of times since the mid-aughts, including in 2006, 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2018. One version he did support included some protections for the nation's 1.8 million Dreamers in exchange for $25 billion in border wall funding. Not exactly a "strong" record of support.
But the twin investments of Democrats focused on House races along with a viable Senate candidate have given the overall effort in the state a boost. The Democratic National Committee invested a little over $150,000 in the state last month, but that's a pittance compared to what is clearly a concern for national Republicans. It seems a bigger investment could be worth the payoff of strengthening the House majority, potentially picking up a pivotal Senate seat and, at the very least, forcing Republicans to squander precious resources in a state they never thought they'd be defending in their wildest dreams.