Trump is only president because of a net 77,748 votes across three states: Pennsylvania, (44,292) Michigan (10,704) and Wisconsin (22,748). That is the average attendance of one Green Bay Packers game at Lambeau Field (77,845).
Fears
Stories on Trumpian machinations to overturn elections through state legislatures churn across the internet. Then, Trump’s refusal to accept a peaceful transition appears. Add to that the obscene rush to fill a SCOTUS vacancy, USPS slowdowns, plus the myriad of GOP state-based tactics to hamstring balloting and fascism hangs in the air like western wildfire smoke.
Cable news cycles, social media feeds and even progressive fundraising emails move from one disaster scenario to another, from one loss to the next. All of this fear only helps Trump. Discouraged and disheartened opponents are easier to defeat.
Focus
Keep this foremost in your thoughts--Trump is only president because of a net 77,748 votes across three states: Pennsylvania, (44,292) Michigan (10,704) and Wisconsin (22,748). That is the average attendance of one Green Bay Packers game at Lambeau field (77,845).
Nearly 3 million voters more were on the side of democracy nationwide last time. The 2018 election shows Trump’s voting base contracted. His shoot-on-5th Avenue supporters are simply more public, breaking out the sheets, armbands and guns they always had closeted to display for social media and cable news. Hold the states that Democrats won in 2016 and reverse this small stadium-sized margin in three traditionally Democratic states and Biden wins.
States with 227 Electoral Votes that Clinton won last time are controlled by Democrats or are divided enough to prevent constitutional mischief. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin have Republican legislatures without a veto-proof majority against Democratic governors. And these states also have a plethora of suburban Republican state legislative districts with many voters turning on Trump as happened in 2018. Suburban voters are accustomed to getting what they want.
The crazy Republican state legislatures like Florida or North Carolina will not matter at all if we hold 2016 states and win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in a convincing fashion. The game will be over at 274 Electoral Votes1.
Fortitude
Yes the Trump forces, unlimited by conscience and lead by men fearful of future prosecution, will try to jackboot their way to victory. Lawsuits will docket. State governments will scheme. County boards of elections nationwide will be besieged by MAGA-hatted, Q-anon terrorists as mailed ballots are counted and re-counts run. I do not, for a moment, think this will be a simple election where Biden wins quickly and the country moves on.
All the suffering from COVID-19, sadness about losing Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the savagery of Trump’s administration must not cloud our thoughts with any despair. Many more Americans want Trump banished from politics than those who worship at his feet. There is substantial work to do these closing days to turn out voters and protect their votes. But there is a clear path to defeating Trump and with this wind at our backs and relentless effort, Biden will be our next president.
1My spreadsheet for this article is here