Yesterday, I spoke to a friend of a friend, Dan Miller, who is the chair of the Van Wert County Democratic party in rural Ohio.
For reference, there are only about 3000 registered Democrats in Van Wert county (with a population of 28,744). Last checked, the racial makeup of the county was 97.43% White and the median income was $39,497. Not surprisingly, Van Wert County is a stronghold Republican county in presidential elections. In 2016, Donald Trump won 80% of the votes cast in the county.
You might think this is a lonely place to be a Democrat. You might think it is the kind of place where Democrats have to hide what they believe in.
It used to be.
Dan tells me that it’s really noticeably different from what it was like in 2016. Typically Democrats in this area keep their heads low.
Not this year.
Dan has been working his ass off at democratic headquarters and he is not alone in working hard. He said he is seeing excitement for Biden in rural Ohio. He keeps running out of signs. He can’t get them printed fast enough to keep up with the demand.
A group of registered Democrats in his county raised over $7000 to buy all the available billboards in the county. So every billboard will be a Biden billboard. They did this in about 72 hours.
Here are people gathering to hear a Democratic candidate for 5th congressional district. About 50 people showed up. In rural Ohio. During a pandemic. To hear a Democrat speak.
And it is not just Biden/Harris signs popping up all over. Here is a baby Trump right in the middle of a rural area at the house of a guy who does competitive truck pulls. People have been coming to his house and getting their picture taken with it.
Is Biden going to win Van Wert County? Heck no. But will he get more than the 20% of the vote Clinton got? It sure is looking like that might happen.
And remember, we don’t need to win rural areas to win the WH (and the Senate) we just need to not get destroyed in them.
People all across this great country of ours are fired up. That energy is getting focused right where it needs to be — on getting trump and his awful enablers out of office.
Right now Trump is a desperate, terrified, and cornered man. Republicans have gamed the system to win. They have lied and misled and suppressed votes.
But they are seeing that not even that will work against us now. We showed them that in 2018 and we are showing it now. It won’t work this year and not in any future year. Their game is no longer strong enough to beat us.
So Trump is trying to scare us and demoralize us by telegraphing that he will fight the results.
But we aren’t scared.
We know he will do all he can to try to stop us but we also know that it will not be possible. We are coming in numbers that no one will be able to ignore or discount.
How do we know? Because from rural Ohio to urban NYC to suburban LA, people all across this great country of ours are fired up.
Don’t let Trump freak you out with his pledges of lawlessness.
He is doing that TO freak you out:
We are not powerless. Out votes will count. Will trump try crazy shit? Sure, he wouldn’t be trump without crazy shit.
But Experts agree that the best way to fight Trump's plans to subvert our democracy is to GOTV like never before. If the margins are big enough, his plans won’t work.
Here are some things you can do:
You can get people registered. You can Volunteer with the Democratic party or Volunteer with the Biden campaign or Volunteer with Beto to turn Texas Blue.
You can also get people who have registered to actually vote. You can Get involved with Postcards to voters or Register voters in key battleground states.
You can volunteer with Common Cause’s old school Protect the Vote effort.
You can Donate money to the ACLU they have filed 20 lawsuits and counting to ensure every eligible voter can vote by mail.
If you are already doing those things: THANK YOU!
You can vote early in person or send in your absentee ballot early -- drop it off if your state allows it. Encourage all your friends to do the same
You can Register with Choose Democracy It takes seconds and they will keep you informed of what you need to do if Trump attempts a coup.
In the meantime, take a deep breath and don't panic. We are in a great position and if we work our asses, we can avert the worst of his crazy.
Why? Because we have the numbers and we are fired up!
We Are Fired Up
People are registering to vote in record numbers — in particular people who fall in our demographics
Voter registration surges after Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, groups say
Vote.org, a nonpartisan nonprofit that allows people to register through its website, saw more than 40,000 new voter registrations on Saturday and Sunday, a 68% increase from the prior weekend, according to its spokesman
Just over 62% of those they helped register were female. Those who registered the most through Vote.org were between the ages of 25 and 34. Close to 25% were between the ages of 18 and 24.
Rock the Vote saw a wave of traffic to its website on National Voter Registration Day. The group’s spokeswoman told CNBC that it had its biggest day for general website traffic so far in 2020, surpassing Super Tuesday in March. Rock the Vote and other groups had a similar surge in the wake of George Floyd’s death.
When We All Vote, an organization co-chaired by Michelle Obama, has seen 82,000 voters starting or completing the process of registering to vote since the weekend, according to the group’s spokeswoman.
Vote Save America, a voter registration initiative launched by political media group Crooked Media, also had record success. Vote Save America saw 3,400 new voter registrations between Friday and Sunday, five times the number it did the previous weekend. The site also saw 16,000 people verify they are registered to vote.
Ben Wessel, an executive director at NextGen, told CNBC that on Tuesday the group estimated it helped over 4,700 people either register or update their voter registration records. Wessel says that “across the 15 hours of work we were doing, that’s basically one new voter registered (or updating their voter address) every 12 seconds.”
The group focused its efforts on potential voters between the ages of 18 and 35 in the key states of Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine, Nevada and Iowa.
Texas shatters voter registration records again as Trump-Biden election draws closer
Texas has once again shattered vote registration records, adding more than 1.5 million voters since the last presidential election.
Texas now has surpassed 16.6 million voters, according to the latest numbers announced Tuesday by Texas Secretary of State Ruth R. Hughs. And there are still almost two weeks to add more.
we were already fired up about taking the senate, but now even more energy is going into it:
Colorado Senate Moves From Toss Up to Lean Democrat
we had been preparing to move this race into a more competitive column very soon, even before Justice Ginsburg's death. But we use both qualitative and quantitative analysis to determine our ratings. We've had concerns about the weaknesses former Gov. John Hickenlooper has shown as a candidate, including how he handled ethics complaints against him earlier this year. While the popular two-term governor, fresh off a quixotic run for president, was wooed into the race and was initially seen as a strong recruit, he has not proved much to be that.
We can even win a senate seat in Alaska
With most voters in Alaska unaffiliated with either party and state residents famously embracing rugged individualism, the independent label can be powerful and has bolstered candidates for governor in the past. In 2016, Democrats began allowing independents to run in the party’s primaries, opening the door to candidacies like those of Ms. Galvin and Dr. Gross, who both easily won the Democratic contests in August.
Gross’ shot at victory hangs on his argument that he, born and bred in the state, would more faithfully represent Alaska’s independent political tradition than Sullivan, a Marine veteran and attorney who moved to the state as an adult.
If Gross succeeds, he could swing the Senate for Democrats and chart a new path for moderate politicians trying to win in rural, red states. A victory would also attest to the enduring political price Republicans like Sullivan have suffered for voting to repeal the Affordable Care Act.
“It’s a perfect storm for Al Gross,” said Jim Lottsfeldt, a lobbyist and political consultant who has advised moderate Alaskan politicians from both parties. “There’s been no better time for him to say, ‘It’s time to send a doctor to Washington.’”
Our pressure changed things at the post office (but still get your vote in early if you can)
According to the leaked speech, the USPS says it will undo nearly all of Louis DeJoy's most controversial policies and make election mail its "number one priority."
The United States Postal Service will be telling all of its employees that it is undoing virtually all of the policies Postmaster General Louis DeJoy initiated more than two months ago that delayed mail across the country, according to a memo obtained by Motherboard.
The memo, titled "Ready to deliver Election Mail for the nation," comes after the USPS's hand was forced. As the memo itself acknowledges, two separate federal judges issued injunctions requiring the USPS to roll back these policies, including limiting overtime and mandating rigid adherence to truck schedules even if mail was not on them. In the wake of those rulings, some mail sorting machines that had been deactivated but not disassembled were being reactivated across the country.
and people aren’t just registering to vote, they are VOTING in record numbers
Early voting turnout hits record numbers in Virginia
Some 100,356 voters have cast ballots in person since early voting began Friday, while 884,032 have requested absentee ballots, state elections officials reported on Wednesday. In all of 2016, just under 353,000 Virginians opted for early in-person voting and about 185,000 voted absentee by mail, according to an analysis by the nonprofit Virginia Public Access Project.
Voters in three solidly blue Northern Virginia congressional districts, where President Trump is deeply unpopular, have requested the most absentee ballots, led by 140,465 requests in the 8th District, which is represented by Rep. Don Beyer (D).
and this race has been remarkably stable, with Biden at the front
Trump Faces Challenges Even in Red States, Poll Shows, as Women Favor Biden
Close races in Georgia, Iowa and Texas show President Trump’s vulnerability and suggest that Joseph Biden has assembled a formidable coalition, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
check out these red state numbers!
and swing states are looking strong:
Fox News New Polls Look Great
Biden 52-41 percent lead over Trump in Nevada.
It’s a 5-point race in Ohio, Biden 50 percent vs. Trump 45 percent.
Likely voters in Pennsylvania favor Biden over Trump, 51-44 percent.
and before you say “but HRC had these numbers in 20 and then she lost.” No. She didn’t.
HRC did not have polling numbers like this in ‘16
A myth that has been propped up by a great many people is that the polls were off in 2016. When one points out that Hillary Clinton lead in the average of national polls by 3.2 % and she won by 2.1% and so her popular vote margin was only off by 1.1 percent, then others say that the state polls of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were really far off. The truth is that the polls were not off in those three states.
Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were the three states that gave Trump the electoral college. So, in Michigan, the difference between what the polls on average predicted as her share of the vote and what her share of the actual vote was was exactly zero point zero percent. No difference. The average of polls predicted her share of the vote exactly correctly. In Wisconsin, the difference in the percentage of the vote that Secretary Clinton received and the share of the vote that the average of the polls predicted that she would receive was only three tenths of one percent. That’s very close. In Pennsylvania, the difference between the share of the vote that she received and the share of the vote that the average of the polls predicted that she would receive was only seven tenths of one percent. Again, that was extremely close to what the polls predicted for her
Biden in Michigan. He looks very hard to beat in that he not only has a seven point lead in the average of the polls, but his share of the percentage of the vote in the average of polls is 49.7% and he almost always has traversed around 50%.
Biden in Wisconsin looks really hard to beat. It’s not just the better than six point margin which Biden has held for months in the average of the polls, but rather it is his tendency to be at or above fifty percent for months.
Biden in Pennsylvania has an average percentage in polling of 49.6 to 44.9% for Trump giving us a sum of 94.5%. That sum will likely increase at the ballot box. Biden simply needs to get a little over 4/10ths of one point to get past 50% and lock Trump out. If Biden retains his vote percentage in the polls which in Pennsylvania has mostly (not always) remained consistent around 49.5% and then gets a little more, then he wins.
The numbers are in our favor. If it motivates you, let yourself enjoy it:
Here’s why Biden’s lead is big and could get bigger
Beyond the numbers, several factors should allay Democrats’ habitual anxiety. First, for all the caterwauling from Democrats about the Biden campaign (Not out enough! Not progressive enough!), this is among the best-run and best-financed campaigns I have witnessed. The Biden team deserves credit — if for nothing else, for shutting out the noise of under-informed consultants and disregarding Twitter’s self-appointed experts. It has both harnessed the left and enticed a steady parade of Republicans (Cindy McCain being the latest) to back him.
the consistency with which Trump enablers blow themselves up — from Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) empty, compromised report on Burisma to the smackdown of Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) by the usually mild-mannered Anthony S. Fauci — should remind us that Republicans have been remarkably ineffectual both in their anti-Biden attacks and Trump defenses. Outside the cocoon of right-wing media, they often appear feckless and inept.
I get it. After 2016, Democratic voters, pollsters and the entire mainstream media are spooked about getting the election “wrong.” They want to assure us over and over again that the polls could be wrong and that the race could be really, really close. Yes, but it could also be that the national polls — just like in 2016 — have the race pegged exactly right.
The good news for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is that he is doing extremely well in national polling. His lead has hovered around an average of 7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average and in the RealClearPolitics average.
and how does that 7 point translate?
Again, the 7 is not in stone and 99% is not 100%. We still need to work our asses off to win. But we are. And we will.
And it isn’t just national races:
Democrats are contesting more Republican-held seats at the legislative level than the reverse, and fewer of the party's incumbents have opted to retire, suggesting continued optimism about Team Blue's chances across the country
This year, 5,876 seats are on the ballot across 86 legislative chambers in 44 states nationwide. We've counted 361 Republican and 298 Democratic incumbents who are calling it quits this fall, while an additional 113 Republicans and 82 Democrats are term-limited and will not be on their states' respective ballots this November.
Put another way, Democrats are fielding 2,035 candidates for seats held by Republicans, while the GOP has only put up 1,709 candidates for seats held by Democrats.
Bottom line: we have what it takes to win and to win big.
Need more to calm down and be energized for action? OK. Here is some more good news:
Other Good News
Older poll workers dropped out because of covid-19. Millennials are stepping up to replace them.
In the Washington region, like across the country, poll workers have typically been older residents who vote at higher numbers and tend to be more civically engaged than their younger peers. This year, however, the threat of the coronavirus caused thousands of these seasoned election judges to drop out. When officials scrambled for replacements, young volunteers came in droves.
Facebook removes Russian networks tied to intelligence services that interfered in the U.S. in 2016
Facebook shut down two Russian disinformation networks operated by the nation’s intelligence services and a third by people affiliated with a notorious troll farm that interfered in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the company announced Thursday.
One blog called “Black and intelligent” was created by Russian operatives in 2018, and its supporting account on Twitter displayed an image and quote from the late civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr. The blog featured articles copied from numerous news sources, including The Washington Post, with a focus on racial issues.
“Black and intelligent” offered criticisms of Biden and promoted his onetime rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). The overall reach of the effort was small, with followers in the hundreds, but the operatives used a feature on WordPress to collect 327 emails of those who viewed the blog, Graphika reported.
“Once again, we see fake accounts designed to appeal to Black communities in the U.S.," said Camille Francois, chief innovation officer for Graphika.
Court sides with House Democrats in challenge to Trump’s border wall spending
A federal appeals court in Washington sided with House Democrats on Friday in their effort to block the Trump administration’s diversion of billions of dollars to build the president’s signature southern border wall.
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit unanimously backed Congress’s power of the purse and said House lawmakers could proceed with their lawsuit alleging it was illegal for President Trump to transfer the money for the wall.
The Constitution gives Congress spending authority, the court said, and it “requires two keys to unlock the Treasury, and the House holds one of those keys. The Executive Branch has, in a word, snatched the House’s key out of its hands,” according to the opinion from Judge David B. Sentelle, who was joined by Judges Patricia A. Millett and Robert L. Wilkins.
Federal judge rules against Trump admin, says 2020 census must continue for another month
federal judge has stopped the 2020 census from finishing at the end of September and ordered the once-a-decade head count of every U.S. resident to continue for another month through the end of October, saying a shortened schedule likely would produce inaccurate results.
U.S. District Judge Lucy Koh in California made her ruling late Thursday, two days after hearing arguments from attorneys for the Census Bureau, and attorneys for civil rights groups and local governments that had sued the Census Bureau in an effort to halt the 2020 census from stopping at the end of the month.
On the Lighter Side
Need a little more inspiration? OK, lets let Amy Klobuchar have the last word. The entire thing is gold, but watch at least the first minute
I am so lucky and so proud to be in this with all of you. ❤️ ✊ ❤️