There is a clear partisan division in this country based on education. Of the top 20 most educated states (measured by college diplomas), Hillary Clinton won 23 of those states. The two exceptions? Utah (#15) and Kansas (#16). Of the bottom 30 states, Republicans won 27 of them. The exceptions? Maine (#22), New Mexico (#38), and Nevada (#46).
Utah is going to stay Republican, as the defining partisan factor in the state is religion. Mormons are heavily Republican. But what about Kansas? Civiqs took a look at Kansas, Sept. 26-29. And while it’s not particularly competitive this cycle, the trends are quite fascinating. Trends are from early June.
PRESIDENT |
9/2020 |
7/2020 |
Donald Trump (R-Inc) |
52 |
52 |
JOE BIDEN (D) |
42 |
40 |
Ten points! Now, that doesn’t stand out as “competitive” in any sense of the word, but it is quite remarkable because Donald Trump won the state by over 20 points in 2016, 56.16% to 35.74%. That means that in the span of four years, Trump’s advantage has been whittled in half. That’s not a sign of strong long-term health for the state’s dominant Republican majorities.
Unfortunately Kansas wasn’t exit polled in 2016, which prevents us from seeing exactly where the gains are coming from, but do we really need them? The answer is “the suburbs,” and we saw that in action in 2018 when Democrats picked up the suburban 3rd Congressional District by a 54-44 margin when the incumbent Republican had won it 51-41 in 2016—a 20-point shift in just two years. In next-door Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District, home of the state’s flagship university, Democrats came within less than a point (47.6—48.8) of picking up another seat that Republicans had won by 28 points in 2016.
This is a state that is an anomaly—highly-educated, yet Republican (mostly because it is really really white). But the trends are clearly in the direction of correcting that anomaly.
Unfortunately, that 10-point gap is making it hard for Democratic Senate candidate Barbara Bollier to make this a top-tier competitive race.
Senate |
9/2020 |
7/2020 |
Roger Marshall (R) |
50 |
42 |
Barbara Bollier (D) |
43 |
41 |
Bollier has been maxed out by her state’s partisan lean; she’s just barely outperforming Biden in the state. Republicans lucked out by nominating Marshall as opposed to Kris Kobach, fresh off losing the 2018 governor’s race. I’m not going to pretend that Marshall is a “moderate,” but Kobach was too right-wing extreme for the state to stomach.
I’ll note that according to press reports in Kansas, both Republican and Democratic internal polling shows a much tighter race.
In the GOP internal, Marshall leads 43-39. In the Bollier internal, it’s 45-43. Civiqs doesn’t have such high undecideds, like it did back in June. Its respondents have have come home to the state’s GOP lean.
But there’re still five weeks left, and who knows, maybe Trump will finally pay a price for his antics, tanking the rest of the party with him. I know a lot of you like to say “fight as if you’re down 10 points.” Well, here you go. We’re down seven points. Use that as motivation if that’s what you need to get going.
But regardless, Kansas is a vivid example of the dramatic political realignment happening along educational lines.