The National Bureau of Economic Research has released a report today that confirms that the current recession began in February, 2020, well in advance of the onset of the covid-19 pandemic in this country.
According to the report:
The committee has determined that a peak in monthly economic activity occurred in the U.S. economy in February 2020. The peak marks the end of the expansion that began in June 2009 and the beginning of a recession. The expansion lasted 128 months, the longest in the history of U.S. business cycles dating back to 1854. The previous record was held by the business expansion that lasted for 120 months from March 1991 to March 2001.
The committee also determined that a peak in quarterly economic activity occurred in 2019Q4. Note that the monthly peak (February 2020) occurred in a different quarter (2020Q1) than the quarterly peak. The committee determined these peak dates in accord with its long-standing policy of identifying the months and quarters of peak activity separately, without requiring that the monthly peak lie in the same quarter as the quarterly peak. Further comments on the difference between the quarterly and monthly dates are provided below.
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in production, employment, and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of economic activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion.
So, in truth, Trump had already thrown a time bomb into the economy with his 2017 tax cut for billionaires and the economy was heading south long before the virus arrived on our shores. This whole notion that Trump’s “booming economy” was the victim of the pandemic is, in the words of our next President, “malarkey.”