This is the tenth in an ongoing series, updated biweekly, about where the real election — the one decided state by state, rather than national polling — stands. We’ll start with the electoral vote breakdowns, then move on to the state-by-state polling for the swing states. All the numbers are from Friday 9/4, so the effect of any post-convention bounces should be apparent. In fact, because such bounces are short-lived anyway, the bounces have likely already come and gone.
PredictIt markets: Biden 319, Trump 219 (updated 9/4; no change). Closest states are FL (tilt D) and NC (tilt R).
ElectionProjection.com: Biden 334, Trump 204 (updated 9/4; no change). Weakest D states are AZ, FL, MI, MN, NC, PA, and WI; weakest R states are GA, IA, and OH.
JHK model: Biden 330, Trump 208 (updated 9/4; swing of +8 to Trump). GA, IA, NC and OH remain the closest states.
Princeton Election Consortium: Updated daily. Biden 369, Trump 169 (swing of +20 to Biden). The link to PEC’s 270towin.com map shows GA and OH as tossups.
CNN: No update. Biden 268, Trump 170, 100 tossups. Tossups are AZ, FL, GA, NC, OH, WI.
The Economist: Updated daily. Biden 334, Trump 204 (swing of +9 to Trump). Tossups (“Uncertain” states) are AZ, GA, and NC.
Electoral-vote.com: Updated daily. Biden 350, Trump 150, tossup 38 (swing of +15 for Biden). Tossup is TX; weakest D states are FL, GA, NC and PA; weakest R states are AR and IA.
Plural Vote: Updated daily. Biden 330, Trump 208 (swing of +7 to Trump). Weakest D states are AZ and NC; weakest R states are GA, IA, OH and TX.
Rachel Bitecofer: No update. Biden 318, Trump 125, 95 tossups. Tossups are GA, IA, NC, OH, TX, and 1 Congressional district each in ME and NE.
Inside Elections: Biden 319, Trump 188, 31 tossups (updated 9/4; no change). Tossups are GA and NC. Weakest D states are AZ, FL, WI; weakest R states are IA, OH, and TX.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: No update. Biden 268, Trump 204, 66 tossups. Tossups are AZ, FL, NC, WI and 1 Congressional district in NE.
Cook Political Report: No update. Biden 308, Trump 187, 43 tossups. Tossups are AZ, GA, NC, and 1 EV in ME.
Real Clear Politics: Updated daily. Biden 212, Trump 115, 211 tossups. The no toss-up map now shows Biden 352, Trump 186 (a swing of +15 back to Biden).
Here are current polling averages from fivethirtyeight and RCP, in order of largest to smallest margins for Biden as predicted by 538. We’re keeping Alaska for now, and I’ve added Minnesota in.
(1) WI: Spreads are Biden +7.4 (538, up 0.6) and Biden +4.0 (RCP).
(2) MI: Spreads are Biden +6.7 (538, down 1.0) and Biden +2.6 (RCP).
(3) NV: Spreads are Biden +6.5 (538, down 0.9) and Biden +4.0 (RCP).
(4) MN: Spreads are Biden +6.3 (538) and Biden 3.7 (RCP).
(5) AZ: Spreads are Biden +4.7 (538, up 0.4) and Biden +5.0 (RCP).
(6) PA: Spreads are Biden +4.5 (538, down 1.5) and Biden +4.2 (RCP). The race here appears to be tightening over the past month.
(7) FL: Spreads are Biden +2.8 (538, down 2.9) and Biden +1.8 (RCP). Some of the biggest movement, with the race tightening here as well.
(8) NC: Spreads are Biden +1.8 (538, up 0.8) and Biden +0.6 (RCP).
(9) TX: Spreads are Trump +0.5 (538, Biden up 1.1) and Trump +3.5 (RCP).
(10) GA: Spreads are Trump +1.4 (538, Biden down 0.7) and Trump +1.3 (RCP).
(11) IA: Spreads are Trump +1.6 (538, Biden down 0.6) and Trump +1.7 (RCP).
(12) OH: Spreads are Trump +1.8 (538, Biden down 1.6) and Biden +2.3 (RCP).
(13) AK: No new polls - Trump still +3.3 on average (538) from July polls.
The race may be tightening in some states, notably FL and PA where Biden leads continue to shrink, but one of the most defining features really does seem to be stability. Dueling conventions have done little to change the electoral vote outlook. Biden still leads with 318-369 EVs in 10 of 13 models, and leads in the remaining three as well (which all include large numbers of toss-ups). When I come back in two weeks, we’ll see if Trump’s current modest bounce in a couple of states was actually lasting.
