UPDATE: Monday, May 1, 2023 · 2:52:55 PM +00:00
·
Fffflats
Systems over Individuals yet, again, we scapegoat individual entities and fail to address structural flaws with notions like “the banks took too much risk and deserve what they got” and “large depositors took too much risk and should lose their holdings” despite such would cascade as they’d fail to make payroll. Blame the bad corporation as it obviously erred alleviates us of the need for critical self reflection.
Why did these three previously solid, medium-size banks suddenly face annihilation? The answer lies in the nature of banking itself. Our so-called fractional banking system is fundamentally risky and vulnerable to external shocks, like the recent rise in interest rates, which these banks’ managers should have anticipated—but evidently had not.
The fractional banking system works only if people have confidence in it and in their money being there when they want it. But no bank can withstand a panic for the very reason that, for the bank to make money, the majority of our money isn’t in the bank. Banks’ business plans are built on this mismatch between assets and liabilities. When things go wrong, very little can be done to save the institution.
Liars and Fires
“You expect heroes to survive terrible things. If you give them a medal, then you don’t ever have to ask why the terrible thing happened in the first place. Or try to fix it.”
“She shouldn’t have had to be a hero.”
“‘No,’ said the Duchess. ‘No. No one should.’”
- A Wizard's Guide To Defensive Baking - T. Kingfisher
Ace Ventura Pet Detective story development sprang from a kicker Ray Finkle that missed a late play kick that left his team defeated while costing the kicker his career and personal reputation. Such was so bad the character had to assume an alternate identity while also being driven to pursue revenge against the unforgiving and disloyal team. While not as severe, this notion that the kicker lost the game can be seen in our sports media. Sometimes, as in a case when a kicker may have missed multiple kicks, there is validity. In other times, blaming the kicker seems valid with a ready story showing a loss though really this serves to distract and alleviate attention from the rest of the team’s performance throughout the entirety of the game. Yet kickers internalize the blame.
Liars and Fires: Scapegoating 101
Numerous reports are hitting university students for inappropriate behavior and lack of responsibility as schools have tried to reopen amidst SARS-Cov-2. These include:
Politico, “The biggest threat to universities' carefully drawn reopening plans? Their students. School leaders are dishing out suspensions, kicking students out of dorms and sanctioning Greek organizations over large gatherings during a budding semester that already has seen colleges close amid thousands of confirmed Covid-19 cases and dozens of deaths.”
USA Today backed by NorthEastern’s own News@Northeastern, “Northeastern has dismissed 11 first-year students after they were discovered together in a room at the Westin Hotel in Boston on Wednesday night, in violation of university and public health protocols that prohibit crowded gatherings.”
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, “Judicial hearings are scheduled at West Virginia University that could result in suspension or expulsion for three students “who have a history” of violating COVID-19 safety rules while 47 others are now on probation for related violations, officials said Thursday.”
Shoot, NBC Boston gives you a rundown of area schools with students demonstrating a lack of judgment and endangering others. Chicago Tribune provides another laundry list of schools citing infractions and issuing punishment. Meanwhile NYTimes shows schools inspiring Jacobin action within the student body. (Seen also here.)
Yes, it seems, students are guilty and responsible for causing this mess. But wait, Politico quotes NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, “We should anticipate clusters,” “We expect it. We want to be prepared for it.” Why should we be expecting this if irresponsible students are the problem? Could it be there is a bigger more complex causal chain leading one to anticipate? If so, are students really the guilty party? Scapegoating, folks, see the outwardly visible student actions which also happen to be the last link in series leading to increased infections. Guilty. Punish them, they did it. And since they did it, we couldn’t possibly have contributed. They’re guilty. We have no reason to consider our own actions.
Or perhaps students are victims too. And Cuomo likely considered actions, effects, and second order effects.
The Atlantic forecast these very draconian institutional scenarios in which they’d blame students rather than impose any sort of self reflection and systemic assessment after knowingly running flawed policy. “Students will get infected, and universities will rebuke them for it; campuses will close, and students will be blamed for it.” Sure enough, that is what has happened. “Relying on the self-control of young adults, rather than deploying the public-health infrastructure needed to control a disease that spreads easily among people who live, eat, study, and socialize together, is not a safe reopening strategy—and yelling at students for their dangerous behavior won’t help either.” Myopic views of causal chains continue, “In the bars, restaurants, and retail establishments that have resumed service as part of most states’ reopening plans, the majority of employees are 34 or younger. But rather than taking responsibility for reopening high-risk environments prematurely, officials have again shifted the blame to the young people who keep those industries running.”
“From statements such as these, one might conclude that saving the country from the coronavirus isn’t up to those who decide which establishments are open or closed; rather, it’s the personal responsibility of young people—and never mind that, for them, exposure isn’t always a choice.” In this, The Atlantic really captures it, “Likewise, college campuses that are reopening for in-person instruction are banking on the personal responsibility of students to make it all work—and students are being set up to take the fall when the plans fail.” As a planner, I say if you know your plan will fail, you need a new plan. As an operator, if you know the plan will fail, don’t execute. Is it that hard? Instead, we want to be seen cooperative and trying toward production though only so long as we have an out in blaming others.
What is a student to do? It’s not like officialdom has sent mixed messages, either, with science advice via new Trump aide Dr. Scott Atlas, ““When you isolate everyone, including all the healthy people, you’re prolonging the problem because you’re preventing population immunity,” Dr. Atlas said in a Fox News radio interview in July. “Low-risk groups getting the infection is not a problem. In fact, it’s a positive.””
This brings us to wildfire. A smoke bomb set off a wildfire. Obviously this was causal. Those responsible should pay penalties for infractions. But should they be culpable for the entirety of the damages? That would be scapegoating. The environment was set for fire. It was set for cascading failure. If not here from this, another spark would have set it off. This too is systemic. So much easier to blame a simple act by a villain, however. Were this true, why are there so many other concurrent fires?
Imagine less than forty seconds to go down 20 to 21. That 20 was two touchdowns both with good extra point kicks and two field goals. For the game determination, a third field goal attempt. It’s all on the kicker. Somehow the drives that only obtained field goals previously, not touchdowns, and the defense that allowed three touchdowns are no longer relevant. The kicker will win it or lose it. Here I thought the team won or lost. Maybe that’s part of the problem, we don’t see ourselves as inclusive in the team or we don’t see others in our team. Instead it’s us or them so obviously it’s them.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution understands that when it comes down to a kick, there was a lot of buildup that created such a negative situation. “The Fox cameras lingered on Falcons kicker Matt Bryant for an excruciatingly long time after he missed an extra point that would have tied the game with less than two minutes to go. The 34-33 loss at Arizona shouldn't be pinned on Bryant. Tying the game doesn't mean winning it, and the biggest problem was Dan Quinn's defense getting carved up by Arizona rookie quarterback Kyler Murray.” (Game day October 13, 2019)
Tuesday, Sep 29, 2020 · 8:00:23 AM +00:00 · Fffflats
On those wild fires, how much blame goes to our own forestry policies? How much to our carbon addiction? Yet who gets blamed? NYTimes shows how for over a century we packed the tinder box. As to Global Warming, we knew the concept in the 19th century while we could have done better for over four decades. Blame the kid with the candle. No need to focus on bigger causal concerns. Cascades don’t matter, only the last step.
Saturday, Jan 16, 2021 · 10:39:14 PM +00:00
·
Fffflats
I’ve recently discovered 3 Blue 1 Brown. They do good work with mathematical concept visualizations. I’m adding a link to their pandemic piece in any of my stories having to do with pandemic. Of note to this particular story as it relates to the Trump Administration, we should point out 3 Blue 1 Brown suggests we should adapt method to circumstances, use multiple methods in parallel, and also shows broad testing as the most significant reduction contributor. This needs highlighting as it is still inadequate. Some might say deliberately so. See Vanity Fair & GQ.