Florida seems to have tightened after the convention. The lead in the average of polls before September 30 was 5+. Seniors do normally vote republican on average. On the one hand, there is our party that is fighting to protect their lives from the novel coronavirus and by protecting Medicare and Social Security which many seniors depend upon. On the other hand, there is the republican party that caters to the white supremacy that they value as their tradition. And this appears to be a tough choice in the minds of most seniors. We have a very modest lead of 2.3 points in Florida at this time. Florida is extremely competitive and we will have a huge battle to win it. Florida is one of the few battleground states where Trump exceeded not only Romney’s vote total, but also President Obama’s by a wide margin. Trump simply retaining all of his 2016 voters would make him formidable there. However, Trump’s mismanagement of the novel coronavirus and the huge loss of lives of seniors should cost him a significant amount of his 2016 voters one would hope. If not for an outlier by a C plus rated firm not well thought of, Trafalgar, which gave Trump a 3 point lead in Florida, Biden’s lead might be three points in the average of polls, possibly. In any event, this will be a very close state and we will need to scrap and claw for every vote we can muster there.
Moving on, Biden holds a national lead of 7.8 points in the average of leads as calculated by 538. He has held a 7 plus point lead nationally in the average of polls and been above 49.8% share of the vote in the same average of polls, both since June 6th. This lead has been amazingly stable, surviving the fascism demonstrated in Portland and the protests in Kenosha after police shot yet another unarmed black man, Jacob Blake, by shooting at him in the back seven times and the murders by Kyle Rittenhouse shortly afterwards and the ads by the dark side and even both conventions.
While Arizona doesn’t have Florida’s large electoral college vote haul, it does help offset the reduction in the lead there. Biden’s lead in the average of polls in Arizona now is over 5 points, a relatively new development and Biden is at 49.2% of the vote in the average of polls . However, Biden has held a three point or greater lead there for over a month. Again, if (and it is in real jeopardy) we do win Florida, Arizona will build on that electoral college vote. What is more important is that if we lock down Arizona and Michigan and Wisconsin, then we still get to 270 electoral college votes (with them alone). We also are leading by double digits in both the Omaha NE 2nd Congressional district and ME 03 Congressional district.
Then, we have Pennsylvania which has now returned to a lead of more than five points. Monmouth is an A plus rated pollster and they only saw a four point lead, but others including NBC/Marist, another A plus rated pollster, and Quinnipiac or Q poll, a B plus pollster, has a different lead : NBC / Marist sees it as an 8 or 9 point lead and Q poll sees it as an 8 point lead. Biden has 49.8% of the vote according to the average of polls in Pennsylvania according to 538. Other than a 2 week blip during the conventions, Biden has held a 5 point plus lead as well as over 49% of the vote in the average of polls since June 22nd. Pennsylvania will likely be competitive as well, but we should win it. Obviously, we will need to do everything we possibly can to win the Keystone state, but if we do then we should have a good outcome.
Next is Wisconsin where Biden’s looking strong of late. Biden has held a 6 point lead or better and 48.4% of the vote or better since June 14th in the average of polls in Wisconsin. Currently, Biden has a robust 7.5 point lead in Wisconsin. If this keeps up, Trump will have to write off Wisconsin. However, there are only so many ways that Trump can get to 270 electoral college votes and Wisconsin is included in pretty much every realistic one. We may not be able to absolutely count on Florida, but we are the favorites to win Florida and we can win without it. Trump doesn’t even have Florida in the bag at all and thus, certainly, needs Wisconsin. Romney in 2012 , of course, won more votes than Trump did in 2016.
Then, we have Michigan where Biden is also doing well right now with a lead of 7.5 points. Now, for a day or two, Biden dropped to 48.5% of the vote. However, otherwise, Biden has held a lead above 6 points and more than 49% of the vote in the average of polls since June 4th. President Obama won more votes in 2012 in Michigan than Trump did in 2016.
Biden’s lead in Florida might return to what it once was, but it might not. Biden is only down 1.3 points in Iowa, down only 1.6 points in Georgia, down only seven tenths of one point in Texas, only eight tenths of one point in Ohio , and Biden is leading by 1.8 points in North Carolina . Biden is down less than two points in all of these indisputably must win states for Trump and actually winning in North Carolina. Trump is in a world of trouble in the electoral college. Biden is competitive in states he doesn’t have to win and has a significant lead of five or more points in states that get him to 270 points. Apart from a short time during the convention, Biden has had a path to 270 electoral college votes with states that he is winning by five points or more since the middle of June. That means the incumbent is in serious trouble.
Biden is winning double haters by 25 points. Trump is now the incumbent who has badly mismanaged the pandemic leading to over 185,000 American deaths and a wrecked economy.
Incumbents tend to lose the undecided vote and that is even more likely to be true this time with such a polarizing incumbent.
.The key to interpreting the polls in 2016 involved knowing how voters who say they are undecided or voting for a third party tend to behave on Election Day. Undecided voters tend to break heavily against the incumbent, and in 2016, Clinton was the de facto incumbent seeking to succeed President Barack Obama. Between one-third and half of people who say they will back a third-party candidate normally end up not doing so, and they break heavily back toward the party they normally support. In 2016, the bulk of third-party voters were Republicans unhappy with Trump. In the end, both factors helped give Trump a last-minute surge, a surge that confounded the experts and gave him the victory.This year is different. Trump is the incumbent, and the undecided factor now weighs against him. If a voter is undecided on Nov. 3, she is very likely to back Biden. There are also few unhappy Republicans planning to throw their vote away this year.
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.As I mentioned at the top, Biden has held a lead of at least seven points or more in the average of polls since June 6th and has held at least 49.8% of the vote in the average of polls since June 6th as well. Since Biden’s lead is 7.8 points and that is after the convention and his lead of at least seven points has been held for over three straight months, it is hard to see that lead changing. And if a presidential candidate wins the popular vote by seven or more points, they are almost certain to win the electoral college vote.
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.Bottom line, Biden is in an advantageous position in the electoral college and his lead in the average of national polls is strong enough that, if retained as it has been for over three months now, to make it exceedingly likely that he will win the electoral college. We just need to keep our nose to the grindstone and make sure we are registered to vote, have a plan to vote, get others who are backing Biden registered to vote, help them to make a plan to vote and help them execute that plan, talk to family and friends about why they should vote for Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot, phone bank, and write post cards. If we all do everything we can, then Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot should win. We have less than two months left.