Although there is a lot of momentum and a lot of emotion in favor of an impeachment trial, it isn’t going to happen soon, which gives everyone time to think about the advantages and disadvantages of a trial. Every decision involves risks and rewards; this one is no different.
On one side, I have heard that we must have a trial to send a message to future would-be tyrants. Perhaps, but I’m pretty sure when the next one comes along, as s/he will, a trial of a predecessor in the Senate is not going to faze them a bit, and especially, as is very likely, a trial without a conviction. You think people like Lauren Boebert will be slowed in the least by the prospect of a trial in the Senate for armed insurrection? Don’t think so. If anything, it will prove to them and their followers that the rot in Congress must be removed.
And there is the argument that this particular criminal must be held accountable for his actions. I couldn’t agree more, but it seems that only works if there is a conviction by the Senate. If the Senate doesn’t convict, what is the message then? If anything, it will show Donald Trump that he still has support, perhaps even still controls the Republican party. It may end up lifting him up instead of leaving him chastised. It is well to remember that he is completely unbalanced; he doesn’t think or feel like normal people do.
There is a good argument that a trial will allow the American people to see and hear a full accounting of the facts of the event, and that it might reveal ties from the terrorists to people in the Trump administration and Congress. This for me is a reasonably compelling argument, but even if the trial disclosed those connections, who would believe them and be moved, politically moved, by them? Democrats already have strong suspicions that this was an insurrection aided and abetted by Republican politicians and sympathizers. Whatever the evidence, will evidence produced in a Senate trial — a political trial - move Republicans? Certainly not the base. People in the soft middle? Perhaps, but will it matter come 2022 and the fight for control of Congress? A Senate trial could easily turn into a rallying cry for Republicans in 2022.
And will it matter for people who support those who enabled Trump for the last four years, and lied for him the last two months? It isn’t going to matter a rip to Cruz, Hawley, Boebert, and the rest of that gang. I wish it would move some of their supporters, but that seems a long shot.
The downsides are obvious, chief among them the distraction from the crucial first 100 days of Biden’s presidency. I think, in those first 100 days, Biden has a chance to pass legislation that will send serious money to individuals and communities, especially the big infrastructure plans in the works, that could help generate some real goodwill toward Democrats in places like Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. A trial at the same time will negate the effects of those actions, because whether we like it or not, even moderate Republican are going to see it as revenge.
I am the first to believe Donald Trump is a criminal, for many reasons, but especially for sedition, for organizing an armed insurrection against the United States government, and that he should be convicted and sentenced to jail for his crimes. Actions should have consequences, especially his and all of his enablers. But I am not at all convinced that a Senate trial will move anyone who isn’t already convinced. And if the Senate doesn't convict him, you can count on Donald Trump being back in four years, and crazier — and perhaps stronger - than ever. Perhaps it is worth the effort, distraction, and possible political downsides of a trial to try and convict Trump, but the odds are long, and there are serious downsides. I believe this is worth thinking about.