I see continued speculation on the coming “death” of the GOP. I find these arguments implausible
Given the nature of our electoral system, political parties necessarily have to consist of coalitions in order to actually win elections. Should the GOP fracture into two parties, that would cede many elections now safe for GOPers to Democrats. The real question, it seems to me, is who has the necessary GOP votes to control the future of the party.
Any analysis must include a consideration of the overlapping constituencies currently in the GOP. The division between “gamers” and “breakers” is one such division, but is too broad in my view to contribute to understanding. Instead, I think we must consider the overlapping groups that currently constitute the GOPer base.
By all accounts, Evangelicals are the most loyal Republican voters. Any successful coalition has to include this group if it is to have a prayer of winning elections nationally. This is a slowly shrinking demographic, but it is central to GOPer success.
White nationalists are another group. Prior to Trump, this group had to settle for dog-whistles and policy wedges, but now they expect full-throated, unambiguous support. This group also has significant overlap with all other GOPer constituencies. It is also clear that the other large group, the Evangelicals, are happy with the full-throated racist version, neither rejecting nor insisting on it.
There are numerous fellow travelers with the White Nationalists, most particularly gun fanatics. These are not a large contingent, but constitute at least 3-5% of the electorate. Given how weak the GOP coalition actually is and how intransigent this group is, the GOP can’t afford to lose them.
Given that there is overlap between the Evangelicals, White Nationalists, and Gun Rights fanatics, it’s hard to assess their collective size in the GOP coalition. However, it’s not unreasonable to put their numbers at 60% or so of the coalition. Moreover, there is ample evidence that these groups are not separating from each other. Indeed, if anything they are closer than ever. Together, they are sufficient to determine the fate of the GOP moving forward.
These three groups are also adamant and non-compromising in their positions. They will reject any politician who hints at compromise. The Evangelicals in particular are active throughout the electoral process, including primaries. Given that these three groups are a majority of the GOPer coalition and are in alignment, it’s hard to see any moderation in GOP positions moving forward.
That’s not say there aren’t parts of the current GOP coalition that don’t especially like the fascism of their coalition partners. Some even go so far as to reject violence. But if they want to have influence in the GOP, they cannot—and thus will not—compromise on the core issues of the above voters. If they do, they won’t survive primaries. Most of them won’t vote Democratic, either, since they see “socialism” as worse than racism and Christofascism.
That should lead to unpopular candidates running on the GOP ticket. That’s true, but gerrymandered congressional districts mean that won’t matter in many or even most cases. In some states, the GOP is so thoroughly ensconced that it’s almost unthinkable that a Democrat could win a state-wide election, let alone in a gerrymandered district. I live in such a state, Oklahoma. Just look at the how the House races turned out this election. It’s entirely possible, even likely, that the GOP will take the House in 2022.
Further, the Electoral College is the ultimate gerrymander. In 2020, Biden won the popular vote by over seven million. But he won three critical states—Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia—by a total of less than 50,000 votes. Losing those three states would have resulted in a tie, which would in turn have put Trump in the White House since the GOP controls the House delegations of 26 states. That means that the victory wasn’t overwhelming at all. It was razor-thin, and against the worst president in history, with the economy tanking, and hundreds of thousands dead from a pandemic.
For the above reasons, I think the other parts of the GOP coalition won’t matter—the Evangelicals, White Nationalists, and Gun Fanatics will run the party. The “Main Street” group and the “Wall Street” group have nowhere else to go.
Bear in mind that GOP funders are only marginally from Wall Street—individuals like Peter Theil, the Mercers, Murdoch, and the Kochs have diverse goals that differ from Wall Street and ample funds to underwrite the Evangelicals and White Nationalist candidates. Further, Trump got 50% of his campaign funds from small donors—more than Biden’s 39%.
The core of the Main Street group lives in a racially and culturally uniform bubbles where right-wing media and right-wing religion provide the only context. This group is unlikely to support Democrats no matter what we do. Wall Street might move to us in the short term, but the actual number votes they bring is too small to matter—Wall Street has always been about buying policy via campaign donations, not votes.
In summary, I think the GOP has reason to be satisfied with its coalition and its future electoral prospects, at least through the next several cycles. Eventually demographics, especially in Texas and Southern states, will upend them. But for the short term, I see them getting more extreme, not less.
What we showed in 2020 is that if we are sufficiently determined and get out the vote, we can win despite the many structural advantages the GOP enjoys. But the GOP is not fracturing, nor is it going away. If anything, it’s going to be more rigid, violent, and fascist. That’s what the GOP base demands. Our response has to be equally resolute. We can continue to win this, but it’s not going to be easy.