As we’re all aware, it takes a 2/3 vote in the Senate to convict Trump. Since there are 100 US Senators, this usually gets short-handed to 67 votes… or 17 Republican Senators joining with the 48 Democrats and 2 independents.
One little detail that gets overlooked is that Article I Section 3 Clause 6 of the Constitution specifies that the requirement is 2/3 of the members present voting to convict.
I have a really hard time imagining 17 Republicans actually voting to convict, so I’ve been dreaming up scenarios where some of them sit out and lower the bar to get to 2/3. Splitting hairs and dodging tough votes comes naturally to politicians, so I could see some number of Republican Senators who’d be happy to see Trump excised from their party and banned from running again but at the same time not having the guts to actually vote to convict. Perhaps they could spin it as “boycotting” a process they see as illegitimate, or say they had a “family emergency,” or their plane got delayed, etc...
I’m not saying this is likely. It’s more like “we don’t need to pitch a perfect game; a mere no-hitter will suffice.”
Anyway, I did the math so I figured I’d share it with you. Here are 18 “pathways” to convicting Trump in the Senate. The first 3 columns break out the 50 Republican Senators by their 3 possible actions: vote to convict, vote to acquit, or don’t show up. The last column shows a final 2/3 vote after adding in 50 votes to convict from the Democrats and independents.
CONVICT |
ACQUIT |
ABSENT |
FINAL VOTE |
0
|
25 |
25 |
50-25 |
1 |
25 |
24 |
51-25 |
2 |
26 |
22 |
52-26 |
3 |
26 |
21 |
53-26 |
4 |
27 |
19 |
54-27 |
5 |
27 |
18 |
55-27 |
6 |
28 |
16 |
56-28 |
7 |
28 |
15 |
57-28 |
8 |
29 |
13 |
58-29 |
9 |
29 |
12 |
59-29 |
10 |
30 |
10 |
60-30 |
11 |
30 |
9 |
61-30 |
12 |
31 |
7 |
62-31 |
13 |
31 |
6 |
63-31 |
14 |
32 |
4 |
64-32 |
15 |
32 |
3 |
65-32 |
16 |
33 |
1 |
66-33 |
17 |
33 |
0 |
67-33 |