Live Coverage: Georgia Senate runoff elections

Tuesday brings the 2020 election cycle to a close with twin U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia that will decide which party controls the chamber. In addition, there’s a runoff for a seat on Georgia’s five-member Public Service Commission. Note that due to the high volume of mail-in votes, we may not know the final outcome of these races tonight.

Resources: Results • County Benchmarks

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 4:40:59 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

How this for tension? With 4.3 million votes counted, the margin between David Perdue (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) lies at...384 votes.

This is awful news for Perdue, because his last tranche of votes (Coffee County in southern Georgia) has already dropped. He has nothing left. Ossoff, meanwhile, can expect to see 20,000 to 30,000 more votes in DeKalb County, another 12,000 votes in Newton County, and certainly some more out of Cobb and Fulton.

The Democrats are tantalizingly close to reclaiming the U.S. Senate.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 4:43:52 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Slight correction to the previous update: what tightened the race from about 5000 votes down to less than 400 was the block of votes out of Newton County.

Still, Ossoff can count on Cobb, DeKalb, Fulton, and also probably some outstanding votes in other blue counties that haven’t entirely reported. You would much rather be Ossoff than Perdue at this point.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 4:48:30 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

While all eyes are on the Ossoff-Perdue race, because of the implications for the Senate, we simply must acknowledge the history here.

Raphael Warnock, while his race has not been called, now holds a lead of 34,600 votes over Kelly Loeffler. That lead appears insurmountable, given what votes remain outstanding.

That means, should the margin hold as we expect it to, that an unapologetically progressive African American man will represent the state of Georgia in the United States Senate. Think on that for a minute.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 5:00:13 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Here is where we stand: David Perdue’s lead is sitting at 1869 votes. But we know there are 18,000 in-person early votes left to count in DeKalb County, and Nate Cohn of the NYT asserted that those were in the predominantly African American parts of DeKalb, meaning that Ossoff could easily net about 12,000 votes or more from just that tranche of votes. Henry County may have about 6000 votes remaining, and Chatham County somewhere in the low five-digits.

What’s most important: all estimates suggest that the in-person Election Day vote is all but tallied, which was Perdue’s last and best hope. What remains is in-person early voting and vote by mail, where the Democrats hammered the GOP in November.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 5:12:41 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

For what it’s worth, the number crunchers at the New York Times project that about 93,000 votes are still outstanding. So why are Democrats buoyant and Republicans depressed? Because the vast majority of those votes are in blue counties:

• DeKalb County (37,000 est.)
• Fulton County (11,000 est.)
• Henry County (10,000 est.)
• Chatham County (5,000 est.)
• Cobb County (4,000 est.)
• Gwinnett County (4,000 est.)
• Dougherty County (1,000 est.)

The only red counties anticipating over a thousand outstanding ballots: smallish Gilmer County, at 3,000 ballots.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 5:19:13 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Here is the answer to a question I just was wondering about not five minutes ago, answered by DKE’s own David Beard:

If they are sworn in on the same day, Ossoff will be the senior senator (down to the last tiebreaker, alphabetical by last name), but a recount could mean Warnock is sworn in earlier https://t.co/BVDLiT7sNm

— David Beard (@dwbeard) January 6, 2021

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 5:23:12 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

David Perdue’s already precipitous lead just shrunk a bit: from 1869 votes down to just 1208. It was from a dump (lord, I hate that word) of about 1400 mail-in votes. We have an APB out to figure out which county!

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 5:42:19 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Conflicting reports about which county offered that smallish (~1400) set of mail-in votes that Jon Ossoff won so convincingly. 

Bigger news—Raphael Warnock has just taken to the stage to declare victory. In a move that will shock precisely no one, his opponent (Kelly Loeffler) is refusing to concede.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 5:45:32 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

.@ReverendWarnock: "Georgia, I am honored by the faith that you have shown in me. And I promise you this tonight: I am going to the Senate to work for all of Georgia, no matter who you cast your vote for in this election." pic.twitter.com/jlffWq1ZEd

— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) January 6, 2021

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 5:50:35 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

This is starting to look like “death by a thousand cuts” for David Perdue. Another 1200 votes are counted (again, mail-in from a county to be named later, though this one was apparently a red county). Ossoff picks up 108 votes. The lead for Perdue is now a highly tenuous 1100 votes.

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 5:51:54 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser

Heh. I wasn’t kidding. Another 340 votes, won overwhelmingly by Jon Ossoff. The Perdue lead drops back below 1000 votes, as he currently sits with just a 919 vote edge (0.02%).

Wednesday, Jan 6, 2021 · 5:55:31 AM +00:00 · Matt Booker

The liveblog continues here.