Here’s the latest news out of Virginia courtesy of CBS News/YouGov’s latest poll:
The Virginia governor's race is but one state contest, an entire year before the midterms. So why are the nation's political eyes all watching it so intensely? Because, as our poll finds, it'll turn on the very issues voters across the country are facing: vaccines and mandates, the economy and jobs, feelings about Joe Biden and, for some, about Donald Trump, too.
And also because it looks close.
Democrat Terry McAuliffe, the former governor, leads Republican Glenn Youngkin by a narrow three points in the preferences of likely voters. McAuliffe hits 50% including voters leaning his way, but there are some clear warning signs for Democrats: Youngkin leads with independents, and his backers look more enthusiastic about voting and firmer in their choice. While Democrats are banking an early-vote lead, McAuliffe still needs to turn out most of the voters who came out for Mr. Biden last year.
Something else to highlight from this poll which emphasizes why turnout is important:
Another familiar pattern we see is party loyalty: the vast majority of 2020 voters — 93 to 94% — are sticking with the same party as before. That leaves very little crossover voting: only 5% of Biden voters support Youngkin, and just 4% of Trump voters support McAuliffe at the moment.
With such high rates of voting with the same party — a hallmark of our current, polarized climate — turning out one's supporters eclipses persuasion in importance to the campaigns. While this race looks tight, particularly given Virginia's recent trend blue, off-year race can be quite variable and difficult to precisely estimate: our data suggests that McAuliffe could open up a wider lead if turnout ends up being high, like it is in presidential years, but will be tight if turnout is lower than recent gubernatorial contests.
While Mr. Biden won Virginia by a comfortable 10 points last year, this year's gubernatorial race looks closer partly because likely voters this year — who have a history of turning out in off-year elections and report they'll vote again now — are a smaller, less Democratic group. They tend to be older and less racially diverse than registered voters overall and the presidential electorate. Our likely voter model takes this information into account, based on turnout patterns four years ago, and results in an estimate of a close race.
In order to understand a different, but plausible, scenario, we ran a turnout model approaching a presidential year. In this high-turnout turnout scenario, the electorate would be much younger — about four in 10 under 45, compared to three in 10 in our baseline model — and full of voters who did not vote in the last gubernatorial election. This electorate would be closer to Virginia's broader pool of registered voters. Under this hypothetical electorate, and using voters' current preferences by demographic group, we would estimate that McAuliffe's margin would grow to a more decisive 8 points.
This is why the big names are coming to Virginia:
Former President Barack Obama will campaign with fellow Democrat Terry McAuliffe in the final stretch of the Virginia governor's race.
“The stakes could not be greater,” McAuliffe said, as he announced the news Tuesday morning on MSNBC.
McAuliffe's race against the GOP nominee, first-time political candidate Glenn Youngkin, is tightening, according to the latest polls. His effort to win a second, nonconsecutive term in office is one of only two regularly scheduled governor's races in the country this year and is being closely watched for indications of voter sentiment ahead of next year's midterms.
McAuliffe's campaign announced that Obama will join him in Richmond on Oct. 23 to mobilize Virginians during early voting, which began weeks ago and runs in person through Oct. 30.
Obama rallied Democrats in Virginia's capital city in 2017 before Ralph Northam beat Republican gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie by nearly 9 percentage points. He'll follow other high-profile Democrats visiting the commonwealth to support McAuliffe.
First lady Jill Biden is set to visit Friday. Stacey Abrams, the voting rights activist, grassroots organizer and former Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate, will campaign with McAuliffe in Norfolk and northern Virginia on Sunday. Also Sunday, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms will campaign with Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, a McAuliffe protege.
And here’s something from that poll that says something and is making it hard for Youngkin:
At a recent Virginia rally, Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin talked up his plans to boost the economy and fight crime, and said nothing at all about false claims that Democratic President Joe Biden's election victory was the result of fraud.
But some in the crowd heard the message all the same, moments before the former private equity executive's speech, when Republican state Senator Amanda Chase told Youngkin supporters - offstage and without a microphone - that she was on guard against a repeat of election cheating.
"I know what the Democrats are trying to do," she said in an interview after remarks that drew cheers. "If things happen again like this past year, they will be caught," said Chase, one of Virginia's leading voices in support of former President Donald Trump's baseless claims of voter fraud, who last year called on him to declare martial law following his loss to Biden.
The dynamic illustrated the fine line Youngkin walks on the campaign trail. He is trying to avoid turning off die-hard supporters of Trump, a Republican, whose allegations the election was stolen from him were rejected by dozens of courts, state election officials and members of his own administration.
But Youngkin also does not want to alienate the independent voters who disapprove of Trump and his role in sparking the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol intended to overturn his election defeat.
The Nov. 2 contest between Youngkin and his Democratic opponent, former Governor Terry McAuliffe, is widely seen as a bellwether of the 2022 congressional races that will determine which party controls Congress for the second half of Biden's term.
"Youngkin has the difficult task that many mainstream Republicans have," said Jessica Taylor, an analyst at the Cook Political Report, who considers the Youngkin-McAuliffe race a toss-up. "You have to thread the needle very tightly here because you cannot anger the Trump base that you also need."
Trump has endorsed Youngkin and has warned that the vote could be rigged against the Republican.
Stacey Abrams organization, Fair Fight, is helping boost voter turnout in Virginia. Received this e-mail today from Fair Fight:
Only THREE WEEKS remain until Election Day and Virginia Democrats urgently need your help to keep Virginia blue! In 2017, Republicans took control of the House by a single vote. Can you sign up today to help voters who need to fix their mail ballot so that it can count—all from the comfort of your couch?
The Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and the entire House of Delegates are on the ballot.That's why we need you to make sure if someone has their mail ballot rejected, they get the chance to fix it right away.
This year, House races will be razor thin, and the Governor’s race is a toss-up— with an anti-voting, anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist on the ballot.
At a time when our democracy hangs in the balance as GOP-controlled states push hundreds of anti-voter bills and try to sabotage our elections, Virginia achieved incredible victories under unified Democratic control—like expanding Medicaid and enacting an omnibus pro-voter law.
Now, the Virginia Democrats need your help to defend the majority, protect that progress, and send a strong message to the country: 2020 was just the beginning—we're still fired up and ready to go!
Can we count on you to join these opportunities from the Virginia Democrats?
Cure Absentee Ballots! We need to make sure every eligible vote cast for Democrats is counted. Join a Ballot Cure Phone Bank — held every Tuesday at 6PM, Thursday at 4PM, and Saturday at 12PM EST. Once you are trained, you can make calls on your own time! Sign up at TinyURL.com/VACureCalls.
Ready for more ways to get involved?
Become a Super Volunteer! Do you have at least 5 hours to give each week between now and Election Day? Are you ready to take your volunteering to the next level? Become a Voter Protection Super Volunteer—many roles are available and most can be done from the comfort of your home! Sign up at TinyURL.com/VAVoterProSuperVols.
Recruit Poll Observers! Virginia Democrats want to make sure there are enough poll observers at all the polling locations that we need. Help build their poll observer team from the comfort of your home by going to TinyURL.com/VARecruitingCalls—and share the link with a friend!
And Be a Poll Observer! Are you able to volunteer in person in Virginia during Early Voting (September 17-October 30) or on Election Day (November 2)? Be a poll observer! Poll observers are the eyes and ears on the ground, responding to the needs of voters and ensuring that every eligible Democratic voter is able to successfully cast a ballot. Full and half-day shifts are available. Reserve your spot and sign up for online training by going to TinyURL.com/VAPollObservingSignup.
Thanks, and let’s get it done!
Team Fair Fight Action
Click here to sign up for Cure Phone Bank.
Click here to sign up to volunteer.
Click here to sign up to recruit poll observers.
Click here to sign up to be a poll observer.
Early voting in Virginia has already started. Click here to register to vote, look up your voting info, find your polling place or ballot drop-off location.
Democracy and Health are on the ballot this year and we need to be ready to keep Virginia Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with McAuliffe and his fellow Virginia Democrats campaigns:
Virginia Democratic Party
Terry McAuliffe
Hala Ayala
Mark Herring