Today, I am going to be looking at Texas House Districts 66 and 67, both located in Collin County, which is part of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.
TX HD 66 and TX HD 67 traditionally have leaned heavily Republican but have trended rapidly towards the Democrats in recent years. Specifically, HD 66 went from supporting Mitt Romney by nearly 24 points in 2012 to supporting Donald Trump by about just 3 points, four years later. HD 67 was similar, although it didn’t swing quite as much to the left in 2016, with Trump carrying it by just under 6 points. (Romney carried the district by roughly the same margin as he did in HD 66). Both of these districts moved quite a bit more to the left in 2018, with Dem Beto O’Rourke carrying both of them by between 5 and 6 points in the U.S. Senate race. And in 2020, Joe Biden improved on the Dem margins even further, as he carried both districts by about 9 points. The fact that Biden outperformed Beto in these districts (by over 3 points) is particularly impressive, given that he underperformed Beto statewide (by nearly 3 points).
The recent state house elections for these districts are also worth discussing. Prior to 2018, HDs 66 and 67 were reliably Republican districts, with Democrats not even contesting these seats in 2012 or 2014. In 2016, the Republicans easily won the state house races, with Republican Matt Shaheen being reelected in HD 66 by just under 19 points and Republican Jeff Leach being reelected in HD 67 by just under 17 points. In 2018, however, both districts featured very close races, with Shaheen winning in HD 66 by less than a percentage point against Dem challenger Sharon Hirsch and Leach winning in HD 67 by just over 2 points against Dem challenger Sarah Depew. Given how close these state house races were in 2018, both districts were highly targeted for the 2020 cycle and were considered key pick-up opportunities for Democrats. However, despite improvements at the top of the ticket in both districts (Biden outperforming Beto), the Republicans held onto both of these seats, though, again, the state house races were close (but actually slightly worse for Dems in comparison to 2018). In HD 66, Shaheen won by a percentage point in a rematch against Hirsch, and in HD 67, Leach defeated Dem Lorenzo Sanchez by between 3 and 4 points. As been discussed in previous articles, it’s quite possible that the removal of straight-ticket voting in TX (for 2020 and onwards) cost the Democrats these seats.
The implications of redistricting for 2022 should also be noted. At first glance, it would seem that there are multiple ways the Republicans controlled legislature would want to approach redistricting these two districts. On one hand, the Republicans might want to keep these seats fairly intact (or perhaps draw both of them to be just slightly redder than they currently are) to keep them winnable for the GOP and to protect both incumbents (Shaheen and Leach). However, the Republicans run the risk of this approach backfiring sometime in the future, in which case the GOP could eventually lose them both because of favorable trends for the Dems. The alternative is that the Republicans could redraw one of these two districts as a Democratic vote-sink, enabling them to shore up the other as a solidly Republican seat. This approach would enable the Republicans to hold one of these two seats for a very long time (which might not be sustainable under the current boundaries), at the cost of the Democrats very likely flipping the other one of the two seats now.
Interestingly enough, the Republican’s current amended 2022 proposal actually combines aspects of both approaches. In the 2022 proposal, the Republicans have drawn more or less a Dem vote sink, creating a district in the southwestern corner of Collin County largely made up of (some) parts of the current HD 66 and HD 67. This district would have supported Biden by around 11 points. However, the Republicans haven’t sacrificed either HD 66 or HD 67, with the new versions of these districts being much safer for the GOP, as Trump would have carried both of them by around 8 points in 2020. Instead, the Republicans have sacrificed HD 70 (located directly north of the current HD 67). Much of what is currently in HD 70 is now split amongst among many different districts (including parts of the new HD 67, and to a lesser extent the new HD 66), with the new Dem vote-sink being numbered HD 70 (even though it barely overlaps with the current HD 70). The Republicans likely chose to sacrifice HD 70 in the amended proposal, due to the fact that the district’s current incumbent, Scott Sanford, had already announced his retirement, so this way, the GOP could protect/shore up all the incumbents who were actually running again as of now (including Shaheen and Leach). The new HD 70 seems to be one of the few bright spots for Dems (in the current redistricting proposal), as it one of their few decent-pick up opportunities. However, it is still not a guarantee that the Democrats will be able to flip the seat in 2022. While an 11-point Biden margin seems quite strong for Democrats, it should be pointed out that this is only about 2 points better than his margins in the current HDs 66 and 67, both of which the Republicans held onto into 2020 due to high levels of ticket-splitting. In the new HD 70, the Democrats only barely won the aggregated state house vote in 2020, so it’s conceivable that Republicans might still be able to narrowly win the district in 2022, given that it will be a Biden midterm, so the national environment might not be that great for Dems. (I have a hard time seeing Republicans winning the seat in 2024, however).
Thanks to Daily Kos Elections (for the 2012, 2016, and 2018 calculations), Texas Legislative Council (for the 2020 calculations), and Patrick Svitek (for the 2020 pres numbers of the 2022 proposed districts).