I’ve been traveling all day today so I am playing catch up here. I stumbled upon a great piece from Eleanor Clift at The Daily Beast that came out yesterday. She talks about how the gubernatorial candidate, Glenn Youngkin (R. VA), has been walking a very tough line to win over the Trump base and appeal to everyone else:
A former private equity investor, Youngkin has courted the Trump base with his call for “election integrity” and promise to audit Virginia voting machines, along with what he calls a “movement” for parents to take back control of schools and his opposition to vaccine and mask mandates. At the same time, Yougkin has appealed to moderates in the vote-rich suburbs by promising to rebate taxes and eliminate the state tax on food, but without saying how he would replace the lost revenue that helps fund education.
This tap dance might have worked, until Steve Bannon showed up at a Richmond rally for his campaign last week where Trump allies pledged allegiance to a flag that allegedly was at the Jan. 6 insurrection. Trump phoned in to say he was looking forward to appearing in person with Youngkin, who didn’t attend the rally and initially said he couldn’t offer any comment because he wasn’t there. His campaign did provide the Youngkin signs. He later called the rally “weird and wrong.”
The Nov. 2 election is the first key indicator of where politics is headed post-Trump, and whether a Republican win could serve as a springboard for the ex-president’s comeback. Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College, told The Daily Beast, “People in Virginia may simply want a change after eight years of Democrats. Even if that’s so, what matters is the perception. It’s the first battle of the 2022 campaign. If Youngkin wins, it’s good for Trump, no question about that.”
It also may be interpreted as a referendum on critical race theory, which is not taught in Virginia public schools but has been the subject of a relentless disinformation campaign to convince parents that their children are being used to advance controversial ideas they don’t support. Youngkin would like Virginians to think that the state’s school boards are at the center of the culture war. “This is the latest in a whole series of efforts to weaponize school district policies by conservatives to gain political advantage,” says Stephen Farnsworth, director of the Center for Leadership and Media at Mary Washington University. In a super-polarized electorate with few voters who haven’t made up their minds, “It’s a rile-up-the-base strategy,” he says.
A recent poll conducted by the University of Mary Washington that asked Virginians to rate their school board’s COVID policies found that 18 percent thought they were too strict, 40 percent found them “about right,” and 20 percent said they were too lenient. Asked to give letter grades on the state’s COVID policies, enacted by a Democratic governor and a Democratic legislature, 11 percent gave an F, another 11 percent gave a D, “and the rest feel pretty good,” says Farnsworth.
Youngkin has come farther than any recent Republican in mastering the fine art of keeping the base close without saying things that alienate the rest of the electorate. Quentin Kidd, who oversees polling at Christopher Newport University, says, “Youngkin is walking a spider web between two tall buildings where one is the base, and the other is suburban voters he needs to win.”
But that Richmond rally may have ensnared Youngkin in his own web of deception. Trump told rallygoers he’d love to campaign in person with Youngkin, which leaves the candidate in a tight spot. He doesn’t dare offend his endorser, but appearing with Trump would likely alienate suburban voters and ensure his defeat.
Last week's TrumpWorld event spearheaded by former White House strategist Steve Bannon and fellow radio host John Fredericks in Richmond, Virginia, was not attended by Glenn Youngkin, the Republican gubernatorial nominee. Indeed, Youngkin was later forced to issue a statement denouncing part of the event, after attendees recited the Pledge of Allegiance before a flag allegedly present at the Jan. 6 insurrection.
But at least one powerful Youngkin ally was at the event cozying up to MAGAWorld allies, lending credence to charges that the nominee is, if not a full-on Trumper, at least Trump-curious. A man who identified himself as a board member at a Youngkin-connected PAC told Salon the GOP candidate was at the gathering "in spirit."
Although this "campaign adviser" did not identify himself, further investigation makes clear that he was Phil Rapp of nearby Midlothian, Virginia, who serves on the executive board of the Middle Resolution PAC. At the Bannon event in a suburban restaurant, he was wearing a navy blue Youngkin cap and a button-down shirt, and was surrounded by self-identified Youngkin volunteers, many with and yard signs.
A biography on the Middle Resolution website identifies Rapp as a onetime "activist member within the Tea Party movement" and former "Chief of Staff, Senior Advisor and Campaign Manager" to Rep. Dave Brat, a far-right Republican who unseated Rep. Eric Cantor in a 2014 GOP primary and lost his seat to Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger in 2018. Indeed Rapp showed Salon a photo of himself with Brat and Donald Trump taken during his days on Capitol Hill.
In April, the Middle Resolution PAC endorsed Youngkin for governor "following an extensive interview and vetting process." The multimillionaire Republican candidate said at the time that the "powerful endorsement" was a sign that "conservative momentum is with our campaign, and I'm the only candidate strong enough to beat Terry McAuliffe in November."
While Trump isn’t in the White House, McAuliffe and his campaign are making the case that electing Youngkin will essentially put the unpopular former president on Capitol Square.
Democrats are not without ammunition. Youngkin has accepted Trump’s endorsement, saying he “represents so much of why I’m running.” He also initially refused to admit that Biden legitimately won the presidency, or to say he would have certified the victory, though he eventually came around on both points.
Youngkin has pushed back on the charge by saying it is McAuliffe, not him, who is obsessed with Trump. His chief message on the airwaves is about education, a nationalized issue in its own right that’s seen as appealing to both Trump-wary conservative parents of school-age children and the MAGA movement’s true believers in its appeal to the hard-liners’ interest in cultural concerns such as critical race theory.
To Democratic Rep. Don Beyer, who represents a solidly blue district in Northern Virginia, that clash represents the so-called Youngkin dilemma: “How can I look like Mitt Romney to one part of the voting population and Donald Trump to the other?”
Beyer acknowledged that voters may have a tough time equating the mild-mannered former private equity executive with the former president’s harsh personality. But he said his policy agenda — on issues like abortion rights, education and Medicaid expansion — will be “very Trumpian” and anathema to voters in Virginia who have previously rejected the former president and his brand.
That rhetoric — in ads and messages from McAuliffe’s campaign — attempts to revive the negative energy that fired up Black, independent and suburban voters in Virginia four years ago and in other elections throughout Trump’s tenure, as Biden’s standing in the state remains weakened among groups that are key to Democratic successes.
Also, what the fuck is this?
Ex-Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, in a video altered to make him appear as former President Abraham Lincoln, has accused Democratic Virginia gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe of orchestrating a "pay for play scheme."
McAuliffe, who previously served as Virginia governor from 2014 to 2018, is facing off against Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin in this year's election. Giuliani's video was posted to Twitter on Tuesday and refers to a largely debunked 1990s scandal that alleged McAuliffe, then a prominent fundraiser for the Democratic Party, sold the party's top donors overnight stays in the White House's Lincoln Bedroom during the administration of former President Bill Clinton.
"Virginia, vote against the man who dishonored our past by selling my bedroom hundreds and hundreds of times to scoundrels in a pay for play scheme," Giuliani says in the video while apparently attempting to replicate the unknown sound of Lincoln's voice. "In my time, we had a name for men who sold bedrooms for one night. In your time, the name is Terry McAuliffe. End the Clinton sleaze once and for all."
Attaching Youngkin to Trump has always been McAuliffe’s strategy:
Ever since Obama won Virginia in 2008, statewide races there have been shadowed by questions of just how much the state’s rapid suburbanization, especially outside of D.C., has changed its politics. Every four years, polls tighten in the final weeks. And, so far, every four years Democrats have won. The margins have at times been far too close for comfort — when McAuliffe won in 2013, it was by less than 3 points — and the state’s most recent electoral tradition is for the closing days to feature a mind-numbingly dumb sideshow that pundits cast as a game-changer. (On the morning of the 2017 vote that elected Ralph Northam, a Morning Joe panel unanimously predicted his loss and pointed to the release of former DNC chair Donna Brazile’s book about the 2016 election as a sign of Democratic discord that would doom him.) Even the most recent big-picture question is predictable: Can Democrats win without Trump on the ballot? The races of 2017 and 2018 provided an answer (yes, clearly), but still it lingers on cable and Twitter.
Yet McAuliffe’s closing message is recognizable, predictable, and understandable, too.
When he voted early this month, he was surrounded by campaign signs proclaiming, simply, YOUNGKIN = TRUMP, and his recent ads about Youngkin’s theoretical education cuts featured not just Betsy DeVos but Trump, too, as have a huge range of his spots and campaign-trail lines about his opponent. Trump himself hasn’t visited the state for Youngkin, but McAuliffe has been transparent about trying to lure the ex-president for months now, as well as highlighting every time he mentions Youngkin.
In a state where Trump remains unpopular — he lost it by six points in 2016 and ten in 2020 — there’s nothing surprising about it, even to Republicans. “When I was chairman of the party, I asked my executive director, ‘When are [Democrats] gonna stop campaigning on the war on women?’ And he said, ‘When it stops working,’” Whitbeck said. “If McAuliffe loses, we may see the end of the Trump bogeyman every Democrat has rolled out for four years. If he wins, they’re going to keep using it.”
Last week, Trump argued in a statement that no Republican should vote until “the Presidential Election Fraud of 2020” was resolved. This was roughly an hour and a half before the kickoff of a Richmond rally that Steve Bannon was headlining for Youngkin’s ticket. The event began with a pledge of allegiance to an American flag that, the organizers said, was present at the Capitol riot, which they called a “peaceful rally with Donald J. Trump.” Youngkin didn’t show, and his running mate, Winsome Sears, who’d been billed as a speaker, left before the speeches started.
But Republicans’ secretary-of-state candidate earned a standing ovation for insisting to the crowd that “Donald Trump won,” which was shortly before Trump himself called in to deem Youngkin “a great gentleman” and to gin up the crowd by insisting “we won in 2020, the most corrupt election in the history of our country, probably one of the most corrupt anywhere, but we’re gonna win it again.” That, in turn, was just before state senator Amanda Chase, whom Youngkin beat in the primary but has recently embraced on the trail, called for the return and “gold plat[ing]” of Virginia’s Confederate monuments.
Within minutes, McAuliffe’s campaign account was tweeting about the event, making sure as many voters knew about it as possible. Not long after the rally ended, he was sharing video from it. The next morning, he called a press conference, just in case anyone still hadn’t heard about it.
Later that day, Youngkin tried distancing himself from the event, insisting “there is no room for violence” when asked about the flag. This was too little, too late: McAuliffe’s campaign had already posted a new ad with footage from the previous evening.
Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe rolled out an ad on Tuesday invoking his response as governor to the 2017 far-right riot in Charlottesville, Va., in his latest effort to tie his GOP opponent, Glenn Youngkin, to former President Trump.
The 60-second ad begins with Trump in 2017 saying there were "very fine people on both sides" of the riots before pivoting to a clip of Youngkin saying he was "honored" to have Trump's endorsement. A clip of McAuliffe's response to the riots is then shown.
"I have a message to all the white supremacists and the Nazis that came into Charlottesville today: Go home. You are not wanted in this great commonwealth," the-then governor said.
White supremacists gathered in Charlottesville for a rally dubbed "Unite the Right." The rally turned violent as clashes broke out between white nationalists and counterprotesters. During the violence, a car plowed into a group of counterprotesters, killing a 32-year-old woman.
The ad marks McAuliffe's latest attempt to tie Youngkin to Trump. McAuliffe's campaign has hit Youngkin over a rally titled "Take Back Virginia," at which Youngkin was not present. The rally, in which Trump briefly called in, featured attendees pledging allegiance to an American flag that was flown at the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol. The event has since drawn widespread criticism.
Especially with the Trump family member helping McAuliffe’s bid:
A fundraising email credited to Mary Trump sent on behalf of Virginia Democrat Terry McAuliffe raised an estimated $100,000 in a single day, McAuliffe's gubernatorial campaign said Monday.
The fundraising message from former President Donald Trump's niece was sent amongst several others from high-profile Democrats encouraging donations in support of McAuliffe as he campaigns in Virginia's gubernatorial election against Republican Glenn Youngkin, who received the former president's official endorsement in May.
McAuliffe, who previously served one term as Virginia's governor between 2014 and 2018, raised about $5.6 million more than Youngkin during the race's last fundraising cycle, according to The Associated Press. Campaign fundraising reports collected by The Virginia Public Access Project showed McAuliffe's campaign raised more than $12.6 million in September, while Youngkin's campaign raised just over $7 million during the same time period.
McAuliffe has raised an estimated $2 million since a controversial "Take Back Virginia" GOP rally in Henrico County last week, according to his campaign. The October 13 rally, which featured political strategist Steve Bannon and a telephone appearance from the former president, quickly drew criticism from Democrats due in part to a flag that attendees said was present at Trump's January 6 rally ahead of the riot at the U.S. Capitol.
I have read Mary Trump’s book, Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World's Most Dangerous Man (strongly recommend reading), and I did received that e-mail from her:
In 2020, we saw voters turn out in record numbers to defeat the most dangerous man in America, my uncle, Donald Trump.
Now, Democrats are complacent, seemingly unconcerned that a Donald Trump-endorsed candidate is inches away from winning the highest office in Virginia.
Glenn Youngkin has embraced everything my uncle stood for. He said that Donald Trump represents so much of why he’s running for office, sold the “Big Lie” that the 2020 election was in some way invalid, wants to bring Betsy DeVos’ public education destruction to Virginia, and has been endorsed by my uncle FIVE TIMES.
After four years of my uncle as President, you know just as well as I that we can’t afford a Donald Trump acolyte in the Virginia Governor’s office. Please make a matched donation of whatever you can afford to help Terry McAuliffe fight back and keep Virginia blue.
If Glenn Youngkin wins this election, he’ll set my uncle on the path to a 2024 comeback.
A victory here for the GOP would send a message to the rest of the nation that the party of insurrectionists, anti-maskers, and vaccine deniers is still alive and well.
Virginia can’t afford that, and neither can we.
Will you pitch in to help Terry turn out the voters he needs to win? I’m just stunned that more people aren’t noticing just how close we are to a Donald Trump victory in Virginia.
Thank you for standing with Terry and me,
Mary L. Trump, PhD
Virginia’s voters — especially moderate Republicans who want to build a better party and independents who want less polarized politics — need to send a message: Betting the future on the extremism Trump peddles and the lies he tells is a dangerous, ultimately doomed wager.
The same signal must be sent about Youngkin’s hope that railing against teaching “critical race theory” in public schools is the ticket to victory.
I use those quotation marks to note that this increasingly popular Republican talking point is deeply manipulative.
As Youngkin’s Democratic opponent, former governor Terry McAuliffe, told me in an interview on Wednesday, critical race theory has “never been taught” in Virginia public schools, and “it’s not supposed to be taught.”
Moreover, harping on critical race theory is an effort to rip apart parents on a serious issue that should be discussed calmly, thoughtfully and respectfully: How can schools offer students an accurate rendering of the American story?
A good curriculum would honor the country’s triumphs and its commitment to freedom while being honest about a past that denied that very same freedom to Black Americans for centuries through slavery, segregation — and, until the Voting Rights Act was passed in 1965, a withholding in many states of the most basic right of citizenship. A great nation does not lie to itself about its grievous sins and failures.
McAuliffe is right that Youngkin’s use of critical race theory is both a racial “dog whistle” and antithetical to a reasoned discussion. Youngkin, McAuliffe argues, is “stirring up parents, creating frictions where frictions should not exist.”
Surely Virginia’s citizens don’t want their state to become a showcase for the damage done when a Trumpist and right-wing minority is allowed to dominate the agenda at local school board meetings.
There’s one other kind of divisiveness voters should think about: the nature of Youngkin’s attacks on incumbent Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam for lockdowns of churches during the pandemic. Youngkin’s explanation for Northam’s decision? “I knew he did not start out every morning like I do, which is in prayer.”
Yes, he really said that. As it happens, Northam adviser Mark Bergman told me, Northam is a member of an African Methodist Episcopal Church and is “very much a man of faith.” Exploiting religion in this self-satisfied way is straight out of the Trump handbook, as is the evidence-free, deeply personal attack.
And Paul Walden from The Washington Post also highlights how Youngkin needs to hype up critical race theory because he’s a fraud:
Imagine it’s January 2023, and Gov. Youngkin gathers his staff for a meeting to celebrate the end of his first year in office. “I want to congratulate all of you,” he says. “We’ve done just what we said we would: For the last year, all of you have worked tirelessly, day in and day out, to make sure no critical race theory is taught in any school in the state.”
That scene is preposterous to the point of parody. The idea that what Youngkin would do as governor has even a remote relationship to what he is running on is absurd.
That’s not the case with every campaign — sometimes Republicans find political benefit in an issue that’s on their actual agenda, like cutting taxes — but when they dash to the front of an angry mob, everyone knows what’s going on.
The prototypical example is probably George H.W. Bush, who centered his 1988 campaign on Willie Horton; ask a historian how much of his presidency was devoted to prison furlough policy. Four years ago, Republican gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie, a high-priced corporate lobbyist, waged a scorched-earth campaign to convince voters that if Ralph Northam became Virginia governor the MS-13 gang would take over the state and murder everyone’s children. No one really believed that Gillespie would pay more than passing attention to MS-13 if he had won.
And today, what’s happening in Virginia is a combination of sincere anger on the part of conservative parents who fear that schools don’t represent their values, and an AstroTurf campaign funded by dark money groups in which Republican operatives pretend to be just concerned parents for their Fox News appearances. Youngkin promises to “ban critical race theory on day one,” which is kind of like promising to ban schools from discussing the theory of loop quantum gravity — you could say you’re doing it, but schoolchildren weren’t learning about it before anyway.
Multiple Republican states have passed measures this year imposing limits on what teachers are allowed to say about race, each one more stupid and authoritarian than the last. But if there’s anyone who thinks Youngkin actually cares about this, it would be a shock. Everyone knows what’s going on: Like Willie Horton and MS-13, this is just something he’s feeding the rubes.
And if he wins, it will be quickly forgotten. He’ll issue a proclamation, and maybe there will be a hastily-written bill that will die in the legislature. But he’ll spend his time working on his real agenda, which is mostly about tax cuts and making sure corporations are unencumbered by pesky regulations.
And Paul Schwartzman at The Washington Post highlights that Youngkin really is nothing but an establishment Republican:
Yet while he has never held public office, Youngkin is hardly a political novice, having given, along with his wife, Suzanne, more than $1 million in campaign contributions to conservative candidates and political action committees since 1999, campaign finance records show.
Youngkin, a wealthy former business executive, and his wife have been prolific donors to mainstream GOP candidates, contributing hundreds of thousands of dollars to the campaigns of Sen. Mitt Romney (Utah) when he ran for president in 2012 and former House speaker Paul D. Ryan (Wis.) from the 2000s to 2017. The Youngkins also have given large sums to the Republican National Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee and conservative political action committees, records show.
More recently, as Youngkin ramped up his campaign for governor, he and his wife have contributed to staunch allies of former president Donald Trump, including more than $80,000 to a PAC for two Georgia Republicans who lost high-profile Senate runoff races in January.
Earlier this year, Youngkin used $1 million of his own money to establish Virginia Wins, a PAC that is helping a roster of current down-ballot candidates, including some who have cast doubt on the 2020 presidential election results.
The one Trump proponent to whom the Youngkins have not given money is Trump himself, a fact that has not discouraged the former president from repeatedly endorsing Youngkin, whom he described during a recent GOP rally as a “great gentleman.”
McAuliffe, whose own political rise began as a fundraiser for the Democratic Party, has cited Youngkin’s contributions to portray the Republican as “bankrolling” candidates who are antiabortion and anti-vaccine. Democrats also have faulted Youngkin for contributions to the Republican Party of Virginia, which recently funded mass mailings to voters that Democrats have called antisemitic and racist.
Now let’s look at the latest four polls on the race:
Now The Monmouth University poll created three different scenarios about how the race could go:
Youngkin (46%) and McAuliffe (46%) hold identical levels of support among all registered voters. This marks a shift from prior Monmouth polls where the Democrat held a 5-point lead (48% to 43% in September and 47% to 42% in August). A range of probabilistic likely electorate models* shows a potential outcome – if the election was held today – of anywhere from a 3-point lead for McAuliffe (48% to 45%) to a 3-point lead for Youngkin (48% to 45%). This is the first time the Republican has held a lead in Monmouth polls this cycle. All prior models gave the Democrat a lead (ranging from 2 to 7 points). A traditional “cut-off” model similar to what Monmouth used in elections prior to the 2018 midterm – which includes registered voters who cast a ballot in at least 2 of the last 4 general elections and report being “certain” or “likely” to vote, or have already voted – shows a close contest with 48% for McAuliffe and 46% for Youngkin.
McAuliffe has not been taking this race for granted:
Despite — or because of — the warning signs, Democrats hope the news will wake up slumbering supporters the way it did in California last month, when Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom appeared to be slipping into dangerous territory in polls before generating high turnout to beat back a recall attempt with ease.
"There's going to be panic. There's going to be consternation. But what I would tell donors and operatives is, 'You should be worried, so pay attention and put resources into this,’" said Tim Lim, a longtime Democratic strategist. "The same thing happened in California. Once Democrats started paying attention and keyed into it, the numbers shifted. The same can happen in Virginia."
In the meantime, one resource Democrats are pouring into Virginia is star power. A blitz of surrogates including former President Barack Obama, Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams, Vice President Kamala Harris and musician Dave Matthews, returning to his old stomping grounds in Charlottesville, are campaigning in the state over the next five days alone.
“This is about bringing in names they know to remind them to get to the polls,” said Jared Leopold, a veteran Democratic strategist who previously worked at the Democratic Governors Association and for Virginia state Sen. Jennifer McClellan, whom McAuliffe beat in the primary.
“Terry's gonna call through every name in his Rolodex to see which Democratic stars he can get to which swing counties,” he continued.
Speaking of which:
Former President Barack Obama urged Virginians to support Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe in a new ad McAuliffe's campaign released Wednesday.
The ad's release came just days before Obama was expected to visit Richmond in-person to campaign alongside McAuliffe.
In the 30-second ad, titled Our Values, Obama said Virginians "have a lot of responsibility" heading into the November 2 election, one of two regularly scheduled gubernatorial elections taking place this fall.
"Not only are you choosing your next governor, but you're also making a statement about what direction we're headed in as a country," Obama said.
The former president referenced his history with McAuliffe, who served as Virginia's governor during Obama's final years as president. Virginia does not allow its governors to serve consecutive terms in office, but McAuliffe, who was governor from 2014 to 2018, is running again in the hope of succeeding sitting Governor Ralph Northam, a fellow Democrat.
"I know Terry McAuliffe, and I can tell you: As governor, no one worked harder for their state," Obama said. "And I also watched Terry stand strong on the values we all care about: Protecting every citizen's right to vote, fighting climate change, and defending a woman's right to choose."
The ad concluded with text shown onscreen reminding voters to "vote early or on November 2."
FYI:
Former President Barack Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris are set to campaign with Democratic nominee for Virginia governor, Terry McAuliffe, this week.
This Thursday, Harris will campaign with McAuliffe in Prince William County from 4 p.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Two days later, Obama will take the stage with McAuliffe in Richmond Saturday, Oct. 23 from 12 p.m. to 3 p.m.
Teachers also have McAuliffe’s back:
The American Federation of Teachers rolled out an ad on Sunday in support of former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) ahead of the state's gubernatorial election on Nov. 2.
The thirty-second spot went up on broadcast and cable in the Washington, D.C. media market, which includes Northern Virginia. The ad features public school parents and educators praising McAuliffe's education proposals, while knocking Republican Glenn Youngkin's plan.
"As governor, he had a demonstrated track record of listening to the people he represents, engaging directly with parents and teachers," AFT president Randi Weingarten said in a statement. "He made sure parents and teachers were heard, and he worked with them to curb high-stakes standardized testing. I know he’ll do the same when elected again."
The push comes after Youngkin and his Republican allies in Virginia went on the offensive against McAuliffe, zeroing in on comments during the last gubernatorial debate in which he said he did not believe parents should be telling schools what to teach.
And McAuliffe has been keeping the focus on the issues that are important:
Abortion is a major factor in 58 percent of Virginia voters’ decisions about this election, according to a CBS News poll conducted this month — running behind vaccination mandates, how schools teach about race and history, and taxes, the top three issues voters cited.
While Youngkin is drawing crowds to his rallies by focusing on parental angst over how race and history are taught in public schools, the prospect that the Supreme Court might overturn Roe v. Wade or that a Republican governor might seek to ban abortion in Virginia has not so far produced similar demonstrations of voter enthusiasm.
But among Democrats and independents, according to internal Democratic polling, abortion is right up there with gun regulation, health care and the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol as topics driving voters to the polls this fall.
“The threat to abortion rights is not theoretical anymore — it’s very real,” said Jamie Lockhart, executive director of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Virginia, the abortion rights group’s political arm. “It might not be the issue they wake up and think about every day, but when they hear about the threat, it’s very motivating.”
In McAuliffe’s successful campaign for governor in 2013, thousands of people came out to rallies in support of abortion rights, said Tarina Keene, executive director of NARAL Pro-Choice Virginia. But this week, McAuliffe’s abortion-focused events are roundtable discussions with advocates, not big public rallies.
“What’s deterring people from coming out and showing their concern is covid — the comfort level of getting out in public during covid,” said Keene, whose group is campaigning for McAuliffe through door-knocking, phone calls and mailers.
Keene remains confident that “reproductive rights will definitely help win the day” for McAuliffe. “Sometimes it takes going up to the edge for people to understand what’s really at risk,” she said. “And we are there. Have no doubt: Their agenda is to ban abortion and punish pregnant people.”
The Democrats’ renewed emphasis on the issue is evident from women showing up at early-voting centers wearing T-shirts saying “Don’t Texas my Virginia,” as well as McAuliffe’s TV ad reminding voters that Youngkin admitted this summer that he would avoid antiabortion rhetoric during the fall campaign.
The ad, one of McAuliffe’s most frequently aired spots, shows Youngkin being asked whether he would “take it to the abortionists” and responding that “I’m going to be really honest with you. The short answer is: In this campaign, I can’t. When I’m governor and I have a majority in the House, we can start going on offense. But as a campaign topic, sadly, that in fact won’t win my independent votes that I have to get.”
He assured his questioner, an abortion rights activist posing as a Youngkin supporter, that “I will not go squishy on you.”
Also:
Dave Matthews is scheduled to play an acoustic set during a get-out-the-vote rally with gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe in Charlottesville this weekend.
McAuliffe’s campaign announced Wednesday, October 20, that the rally will be held at the Ting Pavilion Sunday, Oct. 24. Stacey Abrams and DNC Chair Jaime Harrison are also slated to be at the event.
The event is free and open to the public. You will be required to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination upon entry, though children 12 and under who are not eligible to be vaccinated can still attend.
Doors open at 11 a.m.
By the way, I’m sure we’ll see Biden back on the campaign trail before the election:
But McAuliffe has been making sure to turn out the base:
“Black voters, by and large, are feeling like they’re being taken for granted,” said Wes Bellamy, co-chair of Our Black Party, which advocates for political positions that benefit African Americans.
And any hint of waning enthusiasm among Democratic base voters could prove even more disastrous for the national party in next year’s midterm elections — when the party's narrow control of both congressional chambers is at stake.
Black voters made up 11% of the national electorate in 2020 and 9 in 10 of them supported Biden last year, playing critical roles in delivering close states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of the 2020 electorate. But that means any softening of support could have the opposite effect in statewide races net year.
Democrats have been mobilizing their brightest national stars in hopes of staving off complacency in party ranks. Vice President Kamala Harris recorded a video praising McAuliffe that will be seen at 300-plus churches statewide and is campaigning for McAuliffe in Northern Virginia’s Washington exurbs Thursday. Former President Barack Obama will be in Richmond this weekend.
He'll follow Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who each visited Black churches last weekend. Abrams will be back in the state for a Charlottesville rally Sunday.
“When people show you who they are, believe them,” Abrams said at Second Calvary Baptist Church in Norfolk last weekend to calls from congregants of “That’s right!” “Terry has shown you who he is.”
McAuliffe, who served as governor from 2014 to 2018, has visited 60-plus Black churches, his campaign says, and last Sunday held the first of several planned “Souls to the Polls” efforts to bring African American worshipers to early voting stations.
Also, Hillary Clinton is helping sign up volunteers. Received this e-mail from Clinton last week:
Friend --
Less than a year after grassroots donors and volunteers across the country delivered a resounding defeat to Donald Trump in the 2020 election, Trumpism has reared its ugly head once more — this time in Virginia.
Five times now, Donald Trump has announced a full-throated endorsement of Glenn Youngkin, the self-funding extreme Republican nominee for the Governor’s race who already spent millions of his own dollars on this election.
Let me tell you, extremist Republicans will stop at nothing to get their hand-picked candidate elected Governor. Help my friend Terry McAuliffe take on Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidate by signing up to volunteer for Democrats in Virginia today.
As we saw during the events of January 6th, leaving Trumpism unchecked in any corner of our country is not an option.
It’s on us to fight back against the return of Trumpism. We must unite behind a proven leader like Terry McAuliffe, who has taken on Republican extremism before — and won.
Please, sign up to volunteer with Terry’s campaign to help Terry defeat right-wing extremism in Virginia for good.
Believe me — I know a dangerous Republican extremist when I see one.
– Hillary
Onward Together
120 W 45th Street
New York, NY 10036
United States
Click here to sign up to GOTV.
And Stacy Abrams is helping with GOTV efforts as well.
Received this e-mail from Fair Fight:
Only THREE WEEKS remain until Election Day and Virginia Democrats urgently need your help to keep Virginia blue! In 2017, Republicans took control of the House by a single vote. Can you sign up today to help voters who need to fix their mail ballot so that it can count—all from the comfort of your couch?
The Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General and the entire House of Delegates are on the ballot.That's why we need you to make sure if someone has their mail ballot rejected, they get the chance to fix it right away.
This year, House races will be razor thin, and the Governor’s race is a toss-up— with an anti-voting, anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist on the ballot.
At a time when our democracy hangs in the balance as GOP-controlled states push hundreds of anti-voter bills and try to sabotage our elections, Virginia achieved incredible victories under unified Democratic control—like expanding Medicaid and enacting an omnibus pro-voter law.
Now, the Virginia Democrats need your help to defend the majority, protect that progress, and send a strong message to the country: 2020 was just the beginning—we're still fired up and ready to go!
Can we count on you to join these opportunities from the Virginia Democrats?
Cure Absentee Ballots! We need to make sure every eligible vote cast for Democrats is counted. Join a Ballot Cure Phone Bank — held every Tuesday at 6PM, Thursday at 4PM, and Saturday at 12PM EST. Once you are trained, you can make calls on your own time! Sign up at TinyURL.com/VACureCalls.
Ready for more ways to get involved?
Become a Super Volunteer! Do you have at least 5 hours to give each week between now and Election Day? Are you ready to take your volunteering to the next level? Become a Voter Protection Super Volunteer—many roles are available and most can be done from the comfort of your home! Sign up at TinyURL.com/VAVoterProSuperVols.
Recruit Poll Observers! Virginia Democrats want to make sure there are enough poll observers at all the polling locations that we need. Help build their poll observer team from the comfort of your home by going to TinyURL.com/VARecruitingCalls—and share the link with a friend!
And Be a Poll Observer! Are you able to volunteer in person in Virginia during Early Voting (September 17-October 30) or on Election Day (November 2)? Be a poll observer! Poll observers are the eyes and ears on the ground, responding to the needs of voters and ensuring that every eligible Democratic voter is able to successfully cast a ballot. Full and half-day shifts are available. Reserve your spot and sign up for online training by going to TinyURL.com/VAPollObservingSignup.
Thanks, and let’s get it done!
Team Fair Fight Action
Click here to sign up for Cure Phone Bank.
Click here to sign up to volunteer.
Click here to sign up to recruit poll observers.
Click here to sign up to be a poll observer.
Early voting in Virginia has already started. Click here to register to vote, look up your voting info, find your polling place or ballot drop-off location.
Democracy and Health are on the ballot this year and we need to be ready to keep Virginia Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with McAuliffe and his fellow Virginia Democrats campaigns:
Virginia Democratic Party
Terry McAuliffe
Hala Ayala
Mark Herring