James would be the first Black woman elected governor of any state, but early polls indicate that she starts out at a disadvantage. An early October poll from Marist showed Hochul leading James 44-28 in what was at the time a hypothetical matchup, while a Siena survey done days later put the incumbent’s edge at 47-31. Other candidates may also run: New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams recently filed paperwork for a bid, while New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone, and Rep. Tom Suozzi are among the Empire State Democrats who have also shown an interest in the job.
Still, the attorney general presents Hochul with a high-profile opponent who has won difficult primaries before. James, who got her start in elected office holding a Brooklyn-based seat on the New York City Council, ran citywide in 2013 to succeed de Blasio as public advocate. James found herself in a primary runoff against state Sen. Dan Squadron, but she benefited from her extensive backing from the city's labor movement. Her extremely strong showing in the city’s predominantly Black areas, as well as strong performance in Hispanic precincts, propelled her to a 59-41 win, and she had no trouble in the general election.
Plenty of political observers spent years expecting James to run for mayor in 2021, but she unexpectedly got an earlier shot at a promotion when Attorney General Eric Schneiderman resigned in May of 2018 after multiple women accused him of sexual assault. James consolidated the support of Cuomo and other members of the state party establishment, but she still faced serious primary opposition from law professor Zephyr Teachout, who had challenged Cuomo from the left in 2014 and lost a high-profile House race two years later, and Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney. James ended up beating Teachout 40-31 before easily securing victory in November.
James’ decision to challenge Hochul now also means that the Empire State is in for what will likely be a competitive Democratic primary to succeed her in one of the most influential attorneys general offices in America. We’ll have more about the potential field for this post in a future Digest.