It is no lie to say “The United States Treasury may very shortly not have enough money to pay what is owed!”
Every day the Treasury reports a Daily Treasury Statement. fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/…
The Daily Treasury Statement shows, among other things, the amount of withdrawals for the day, the deposits for the day and most importantly the cash balance at the end of the day.
The Debt ceiling had been suspended through July 31, 2021. Until then, Treasury could borrow,as needed, to keep cash in its balance. Since then, the Treasury has not been able to borrow any more and the Treasury is burning cash rapidly.
Since the debt ceiling is no longer suspended the Treasury has had these cash balances of the start of each month:
August 1, 2021 $555.5 billion fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/…
September 1, 2021 $296.9 Billion fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/...
October 1, 2021 $132.5 Billion fsapps.fiscal.treasury.gov/…
While the cash amount fluctuates up and down daily, looking at the balances on the start of each month you can clearly see the rate of cash burn is significant.
October 18, 2021 does look like the day when the cash balance will reach zero.
For whatever reason, the warnings I hear don’t sound that real or urgent, but when I see it on paper and what the money goes toward default looks very real and very scary.