I was going to post a second version of a Democratic gerrymander of New York. But I’m going to do something else for two reasons. First I rather disliked what I did in Long Island. Especially compared to my first map. And second it is seeming fanciful now? Why?
Question 1 on the New York State ballot went down. Let me explain. Republicans used to control the State Senate thanks to skillful redistricting that permitted 10% population deviation between districts to give New York City less representation that it statistically deserved and an alliance with a group of turncoat Democrats organized by Andrew Cuomo called the IDC (Independent Democratic Caucus). Knowing that their control was tenuous a Republican State Senator, Greg Ball, proposed a “bi-partisan” redistricting commission that would give Republicans a permanent veto over any redistricting if they ever lost the State Senate. This would help them get it back even if they failed to be one of the "three men in a room."
To the dismay of the few of us who paid attention to what went on in Albany Andrew Cuomo adopted this proposal as his own. Here is what happened. Andrew Cuomo threatened to veto the Democratic State Assembly gerrymander of their chamber which they have a super-majority in if they not only did not pass the “first read” of the constitutional amendment, but put language in it that it would immediately become law if the legislature refused to put the constitutional amendment up for a state-wide vote in the NEXT session. Which would have been a better alternative but in that next session the Democrats rolled over as well. Perhaps not a surprise since the arrangement for years has been Democrats gerrymander the Assembly and Republicans gerrymander the State Senate. It just formalized tradition. Even if there would now be a huge penalty for the Democrats if they ever regained the State Senate.
But then the IDC got kicked out in 2018 and the actual language of the amendment mattered. It meant that this “bi-partisan” commission appointed by the majority and minority and evenly split Republican and Democrat got to make a redistricting plan. And both sides presented theirs since there would be no joint maps with the Republicans refusing to even pretend to compromise. The Republicans presented a gross Republican gerrymander. And Democrats presented a “fair” map that tried to make more districts competitive. Which in english means these “Democrats” screwed Democrats. Whether misguided idealism or Cuomo-esque attempts to look good rather than do good who knows. Each one would require a 2/3rds vote to pass.
The problem is that when this constitutional amendment was written primaries were later in the calendar. If their proposal or proposals were rejected the commission got to make a new set of map or maps. The second round of maps does not have to be submitted until February 28th. Whereas petitioning should right around there for the June primary. What this means is unless Republicans play ball (and they have made it crystal clear they prefer going to the courts over any compromise) a randomly selected federal judge will probably be making the New York map in a process starting sometime in January.
Chances are it will be a pretty status quo map with the contours of every district kept similar with a retiring congressman (Tom Reed) having their seat eliminated. But it is Russian roulette in that you really don’t know what you’ll get. So here is a “doomsday” map of a judge who wants to maintain VRA protected seats but other than that is content to ignore incumbency and just try not to split too many counties.
This actually does have many of the key features of the Republican map. Though not quite as aggressive. I’m not trying any ninjitsu like trying to split up Rochester and Buffalo which would be a feature of the worst gerrymanders possible. But should be considered a “fun” map in that it is doubtful it will happen. So cheer up. A Trump judge wouldn’t do this to us. Right guys?
Since I have been a Debbie Downer I’ll also add there is an unmentioned solution that might buy us time to do a proper gerrymander. Move the primary. But here is the problem. Part of the reason it is in June is because New York has a cumbersome, slow, and highly litigious election and counting process. Meaning it was difficult to get military absentee ballots with the actual candidates on the November ballot in the time frame required by federal law back when we had the primary in September. It was why federal primaries (followed by State primaries later on) HAD to be moved. But a July or even August primary would still be possible even if not ideal. That would require planning and a special session of the legislative session. None of which has occurred. And if it is not done next month look for a judge to start breathing down our necks.
The map.
davesredistricting.org/...
A twitter post to show you what things look like.
And so it begins. PVI’s based on 2016/2020 numbers. In case you have no idea what I am talking about a PVI represents how Republican or Democratic a district is and represents how much more Democratic or Republican it is base don the average of the 2016 and 2020 Presidential results.
District — 01. Old PVI — R+5.77, New PVI — R+5.44
Incumbent: Lee Zeldin (running for governor).
Comments: Little different. Should be an easy Republican hold.
District — 02. Old PVI — R+4.89, New PVI — R+1.84
Incumbent: Andrew Garbarino, Tom Suozzi.
Comments: Tom Suozzi continues his foolish bid for Governor. Something he probably would do regardless of whether you put him in a Trump district or not. For 2022 that Trump margin should be enough for Garbarino. But might face more friction in subsequent cycles.
District — 03. (old District 4) Old PVI — D+4.02, New PVI — R+4.19
Incumbent — Kathleen Rice.
Comments: This where her decision to run for NY Attorney General again is made.
District — 04. (old District 5) Old PVI — D+33.89, New PVI — D+31.32
Incumbent — Gregory Meek
Comments: Meeks African-American numbers are sky high. Only problem for him is that having so many new Nassau voters might earn him a primary challenge from there. This district actually presents a real risk. The best way to continue having a Queens based African-American district is to include African-Americans in Nassau county. But that comes at the cost of weakening Nassau Democrats. If you were to start taking in Hempstead like I did that would be devastating.
District — 05. Old PVI — n/a, New PVI — R+5.23
Incumbent — None
Comments: New Brooklyn district Republicans have on their map. Probably the only “Democrats” who could win this is Simcha Felder and Kalman Yeger. Then they’d caucus with the Republicans.
District — 06 Old PVI — D+13.11, New PVI — D+13.32
Incumbent: Grace Meng.
Comments: Tried to get the Asian numbers to 50% but couldn’t quite get there even with a large dose of ugliness. With a large Chinese base population she should be in great shape.
District — 07. Old PVI — D+34.38, New PVI — D+37.13
Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez
Comments: Her district may be whiter but she can do far worse than getting the campaign contributions of the financial district and the votes of students at NYU.
District — 08. Old PVI — D+33.3 New PVI — D+40.68
Incumbent: None!
Comments: A reminder of how districts are shaped to fit incumbents. Hakeem and Yvette don’t live that far away from each other. Which is why their districts are not cut east and west like this map.
District — 09. Old PVI — D+32.11 New PVI — D+40.95
Incumbent: Hakeem Jeffries and Yvette Clarke
Comments: This won’t happen. One will just move.
District — 10. Old PVI — D+36.14 New PVI — D+27.24
Incumbent: Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney
Comments: One would probably retire.
District — 11. Old PVI — R+6.72 New PVI — R+5.44
Incumbent: Nicole Malliotakis
Comments: This map may have saved Max in 2020. But unfortunately Nicole is the incumbent now. She would be favored to win re-election.
District — 12. Old PVI — n/a, New PVI — D+23.01
Incumbent: None.
Comments: It will elect a member of DSA. Will it be Rana Abdelhamid or Julia Salazar? Only the People’s Republic of Astoria knows!
District — 13. Old PVI — D+38.46, New PVI — D+40.06
Incumbent: Adriano Espaillat
Comments: Less Manhattan, more Bronx.
District — 14. Old PVI —D+25.45, New PVI — D+25.26
Incumbent: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Comments: She kept her Queens core, but had to move the Bronx portion to turn it majority Latino. Unfortunately this moves her home to Ritchie Torres’ district. Though like Eric Adams the press has questioned whether she actually lives there ( nypost.com/... ). While her DSA friends would love if she ran against Torres she seems far too savvy to take that risk. She’ll move.
District — 15. Old PVI — D+39.42, New PVI — D+37.12
Incumbent — Ritchie Torres
Comments: Squeezed by AOC and Espaillat but just fine.
District — 16. Old PVI — D+24.93, New PVI — D+18.31
Incumbent — Jamaal Bowman
Comments: Gives western white Bronx to Espaillat, picks up eastern white Bronx from AOC.
District — 17. Old PVI — D+8.75, New PVI — R+1.65
Incumbent — Mondaire Jones
Comments: A moderate incumbent might be able to hang on. While he isn’t Jamal Bowman, that still isn’t Mondaire Jones.
District — 18. Old PVI — R+0.77, New PVI — D+3.94.
Incumbent — Sean Patrick Maloney and Antonio Delgado
Comments: Without districts crossing the St Lawrence these two are united. Antonio represented more of it. Sean Patrick Maloney is the superior fundraiser. And the winner gets to face the formidable Marc Molinaro.
District — 19. Old PVI — n/a, New PVI — R+4.21.
Incumbent — None
Comments: Open seat that should be favorable to Republicans
District — 20. Old PVI — D+7.31, New PVI — D+4.58
Incumbent: Paul Tonko,
Comments: Entrenched Albany area Democrat who you probably wouldn’t recognize in a sea of anonymous accountants. But unless it’s a wave year should be fine.
District — 21. Old PVI — R+7.89, New PVI — R+7.01
Incumbent: Elise Stefanik
Comments: Sprawling ancestrally Republican North Country district grows and stays Republican.
District — 22. Old PVI — n/a, New PVI — R+5.95
Incumbent: None
Comments: New rural central New York seat the extends from the Finger Lakes to the Great Lakes. Will elect a Republican.
District — 23. Old PVI — R+8.37, New PVI — R+10.28
Incumbents: Chris Jacobs
Comments: Western New York district that takes in what is not in the Eire or Monroe County districts. All Chris Jacobs needs to do to keep his job is not do anything stupid. And that has lately been a really big ask for a Western New York Republican.
District — 24. Old PVI — D+1.75, New PVI — D+0.92
Incumbent: Tom Katko and Claudia Tenney
Comments: Claudia Tenney could move to NY-19 or even NY-22 but I think she will stay put here and primary Katko. If Katko pulls a miracle and wins he will easily win re-election. If Tenney wins the primary it will be a tougher road for the Republicans to retain this seat.
District — 25. Old PVI — D+8.49, New PVI — D+7.23
Incumbent: Tom Morelle
Comment: Monroe and a little of Orleans.
District — 26. Old PVI — D+8.49, New PVI — D+7.23
Incumbent: Brian Higgins
Comments: Almost all of Eire County.
After thoughts. It won’t come to this. But four things the map shows. First how much work surrounding districts do right now to erase a strong conservative streak in white South Brooklyn and South Queens. Second how the current configuration of Long Island and upstate is not that unfavorable to us. With tweaks they can become a bigger problem. And third how candidate residency influences geography. A number of congressmen and congresswomen live close to each other and maps often serve to obscure that. If we had redistricting that was blind to the whims of incumbents far more would either be forced to move or be in races against each other. You rarely see a map with 5 open seats like this one because politicians are supposed to choose voters. And fourth the requirement both legal and political to have three African-American districts all in a row in Queens and Brooklyn sets everything else in motion downstate.
Current Partisan Split.
Democrats — 19 Republicans — 8
Probable Split (assuming a Katko, and then a Tenney loss in CD-24)
Democrats — 16 Republicans — 10
Additional seats that could be vulnerable in a wave election. 3. (CD-18, CD-20, CD-24).